The Olympics are Here

A 2-part preview of basketball in the Olympic games- the first half is mainly about the basketball side of things, and the second part focuses more on the politics of the game and the public opinion of Team USA.


Strategy for Success

Anyone who has watched Team USA knows that most of their scoring is generated from the fast break, which is fueled by forced turnovers, loose balls and sharp outlet passes after missed baskets (and sometimes even made baskets). As the US has superior athleticism across the board, running at every opportunity gives them the best chance to score, and in turn, to win. There are two major problems with this source of offense- frequent gambling on defense to create these opportunities, and the lack of a half-court offense when fast break opportunities don’t present themselves.

Against most teams, the US will dominate simply because the back-court pressure of Kobe, Williams, Paul and Kidd will be too much for inexperienced or incapable guards to handle- this prevents very good teams, like Lithuania and Germany, from seriously competing with the US. That said, the better teams have achieved top status in part because of their strong guard play. Spain, Greece and Argentina will not have the same struggles bringing the ball up. Spain in particular is loaded at point guard, led by Jose Calderon (who was among the NBA leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio last season) and young phenom Ricky Rubio, who will almost definitely be a top 5 pick in next year’s NBA draft and should get regular playing time.

Once the opposing teams get into their offense, Team USA loves to gamble, running out into passing lanes and prematurely leaking out on the break. The disciplined medal contenders will not only be able to withstand this, but exploit the aggressiveness of the Americans into easy half-court baskets, either with back-door cuts for open layups, or spot-up shooters getting uncontested looks from 3-point range. The thing that I’ve noticed about all of the international teams, even the lesser ones, is that if they have an open look, they will almost always make it. You can only expect to see the quality of shooters go up as the US faces tougher competition.

Team USA loves to push the tempo. Along with the strong trio of point guards, Kobe, Wade and LeBron are all capable of handling the ball in the open court, and every player on the team is more than capable of finishing on the break. But when teams take care of the ball and make a concerted effort to get all 5 guys back on defense (a strategy that Russia successfully employed), the opportunities to run will be less frequent. This is where the US needs to be able to walk the ball up and run plays in the half-court. This has always been a problem for the Americans, and unfortunately this team doesn’t seem to be much different. The issue isn’t the players, it’s just the nature of the international game that causes these problems. The NBA is fueled by individual offensive play- since zone defenses aren’t allowed and you can’t camp out in the paint, a superior offensive player who can beat his man one-on-one is given the advantage. With FIBA rules, there is no concept of individual play, and it shows. When the Americans try to run isolation plays, letting Kobe or Carmelo work against his man, it doesn’t look quite right, and generally doesn’t result in any advantage for Team USA- this isn’t the way the international game is supposed to be played, and there just isn’t going to be that much success with this strategy. International teams rarely, if ever, run isolation plays for a specific player. Instead, most offensive play in international basketball starts with a high pick-and-roll (and the pick man is given much more freedom to set a moving screen), and then goes into a series of perimeter passes with the intent of finding a mismatch somewhere on the court. In the event that an international player drives into the lane, he usually isn’t looking to get all the way to the rim and score- instead, his intent is to find a shooter that has been left open on the wing, or a cutter who the defense lost track of. Team USA is definitely capable of playing this way, but it is still a foreign (no pun intended) concept to actually AVOID one-on-one play for an entire game.

With all that said, the US should still be fine on offense, even in a slow game. Against Australia, the entire US team went ice cold, especially from 3-point range. The Americans continued to shoot 3’s because the Aussies were purposely sagging off of them, choosing to pack the lane and prevent drives at the expense of giving up uncontested jumpers. In a game where the US shoots 3-18 from distance, this strategy might work (don’t forget, however, that Team USA still won by 11 points). However, what happens if the US shoots 50% in that game- a completely reasonable number. 9-18 shooting from 3-point range gives the US 18 more points, and all the sudden you’re looking at a 29 point win. Watching the Australia game, I saw the Americans miss several open jumpers that they are more than capable of making, shots I’ve seen all of them make on a very regular basis. It’s rare for an entire team to have such a cold shooting night, but it happened to the US against Australia. The other thing that happens if the US shoots a percentage that they’re capable of making (we’ll still with the 50% estimate, which could actually be on the low side) is that the Australian team would be forced to change their defensive strategy. You can’t keep packing in the paint if the other team is making their open jumpers, and if the Australians opened up their defense, extending beyond the 3-point line, the US would have much more room for their athletes to get into the lane and get easier buckets.

While this scenario might seem complicated and optimistic, it really isn’t that farfetched. When you have a team with so much talent and athleticism, you have to expect your opponent to use the rules to level the playing field- in this case, using a zone defense or very soft man-to-man, exploiting the lack of the defensive 3 second rule. From there, it comes down to one simple opportunity. If you make your perimeter shots, the opposing team will be forced to play a more traditional defense that doesn’t give up easy outside shots, and the floor opens up again. If you miss your outside looks, then the opponent isn’t penalized for playing a “junk” defense, and they will continue to do so until you can make them pay.

To me, this closely resembles the individual battles that a superstar has with his primary defender every night in the NBA. For this example, I’m going to use Dwyane Wade. Since Wade has such an explosive first step, along with the speed and strength to score every time he gets close to the basket, his defender has to give him some space, thus negating his first step. Wade, given this extra space, now has the opportunity to shoot an uncontested jumper basically every time he touches the ball. If he chooses to take this shot, and starts making it, his man has no choice but to guard him more closely- this prevents Wade from shooting open jumpers (which, in this scenario, he has been making), but sacrifices the buffer zone that protects him from Wade’s deadly first step. Since his jumper is falling, Wade can once again get into the lane at will. And back and forth. For most NBA stars- Paul, Williams, Kobe, LeBron, and Carmelo are all included here- this is the case almost every night. If their jumper is falling, then they’re impossible to stop; if their shot isn’t falling, then the defense has more of an advantage. The international game takes this one-on-one scenario and expands it to the entire team- if USA is hitting from the outside, which they are very capable of doing, the floor will open up.

I’m not overly worried about one bad shooting night for Team USA. The odds that EVERY shooter on the team goes cold at the same time are very slim, and if even one player had a plus shooting night, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. That said, the nature of the Olympic tournament doesn’t allow for off nights. The medal round is a single elimination tournament, and one bad shooting night against a top team could very easily result in a loss. In the NBA, where the regular season is 82 games long and each round of the playoffs is best of 7 games, players are protected from having poor games. While I think the US will be fine, at least in terms of their shooting performance, the idea that one bad game could end their run is a scary thought.


America's Team?

I’ve noticed a fairly large number of people who seem to be rooting against Team USA, or laughing about their close calls in the exhibitions and the difficulty they will surely face to potentially win the Gold. Part of this stems from the fact that it’s easy, and fun, to root for an underdog. That rationale would be understandable, except for the fact that this is the Olympics, and this team is representing our country- there’s no way any Americans should be rooting against them. I think that this anti-Team USA sentiment stems from two deeper issues- the fact that they aren’t as good as the Dream Team, and the general public opinion of the NBA and its players (and most professional athletes, for that matter).

The original Dream Team, the team that represented the United States in the 1992 Olympics, simply dominated their competition. They famously went through the Olympics without calling a single timeout, without ever scouting an opponent, and probably without ever really holding serious practices or learning the international rules. However, it wasn’t just the sheer talent on the USA roster that made all that possible- it was the fact that the rest of the world didn’t really play competitive basketball yet. Without going into a full history of international basketball, I can definitely say that the roster of the ’92 team isn’t THAT much better (if at all, but once again that’s another story) than the current roster. Show me Michael Jordan and Larry Bird, and I’ll counter with Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, currently the consensus best two players in the world. The list goes on, for both sides. But the Dream Team would play opponents who were just as interested in taking pictures and getting autographs from the NBA players as they were playing the actual games. The Dream Team was a spectacle, and relative to their competition, was easily the best basketball team ever assembled.

But the climate of international basketball has changed, and a large part of that comes from the dominance of that Dream Team. Other counties wanted to learn the game, and eventually be competitive. Some teams, like Spain, Argentina and Greece, have reached that goal; others, such as Canada, Australia and Germany, are still trying to reach it. Either way, the international teams that the current Team USA faces aren’t star-struck anymore. Instead, they have a sense of hostility and aggression that the Dream Team never had to face- these teams want to prove that they can beat the best, and want to show that they are just as good as these international superstars. Even when watching these exhibition games, it is clear that the other countries now treat FIBA basketball at “their game,” one which these NBA players are outsiders to. In any sport, the title of being “the best” comes with a large bullseye for all to see. In every game the US plays- regardless of the quality of the opponent or the circumstances of the game- they bring out the best in their opponents, because a victory over the United States would be a landmark win for that country. And for the US, a loss, in any situation, would be looked at as a monumental failure. Even if they win the gold in these Olympics, a single loss along the way would be looked at as a disaster.

Don’t think that our current team is weak, because they’re not. The fact that they are going through extensive practices and thoroughly scouting their opponents should prove that the world really has caught up. And while it might be hard for a casual fan to understand, this is a good thing for the NBA, and the game of basketball as a whole.

The other issue that people seem to take with this current team is the more troubling one for me. To most fans who don’t religiously follow the NBA, basketball players are brash, overgrown kids who have had everything given to them their whole lives. They either skipped college or got a free ride through school before leaving early because of their talent, and now they make more money in a single season than most of us will make our entire lives. They are covered in tattoos, and every run-in with the law is publicized as the hottest story of the day- they don’t exactly fit the description of someone that we want to represent our country on the world’s biggest stage. Once again, this could be a story in itself, but I’m going to move on. These stereotypes might make them difficult to root for, and the coverage provided of these games doesn’t really explain why the team might run into trouble in the Olympics. For the media personnel who don’t typically cover everything basketball, it’s hard to understand what makes the international game different, and why we can’t dominate like the old days. In fact, some casual fans might not even realize that basketball even HAS different rules in the Olympics. Instead, the struggles of supremely talented individuals in a team-oriented game gives the press even more reason to write these players off as egotistical, immature and self-centered players who care only about themselves. And to those people, my response is simple: we brought this on ourselves. This is OUR fault.

The NBA, just like the NFL, MLB and any other sports league, is a business. A business that, by nature, wants to succeed. For die-hard fans like myself, the game will always be appealing- the NBA doesn’t need to market to me. The NBA wants the business of the casual fan, and in order to do this, they need to make their product as appealing as possible to the masses. The game has evolved over the years so that more people will watch. The common fan who is flipping channels on TV doesn’t want to see a low-scoring game where they can’t recognize any of the players and they don’t see any highlights. Instead, they want to root for a player, maybe more than they want to root for a team. We want a superstar that we can identify with one name who has unbelievable talents, someone who can score 40 or 50 points in a single game, throw down jaw-dropping dunks and showcase his otherworldly speed. And of course, when we see this player endorsing a product, we want to wear what they wear or use what they use, because we want to be able to do what they do. While I love Shane Battier and think that he’s a great role player on a very good team, people aren’t going to wear a specific shoe because Shane Battier tells them to- but if we see Kobe Bryant jumping over a moving car in his new Nikes, that’s a different story. To cater to this phenomenon, the NBA has changed its rules to produce fast-paced, high-scoring games that give every advantage to their stars. People aren’t going to tune in because the Pistons have great role players, people watch because tonight might be the night that Kobe or LeBron, the one-named immortals, might score 50 points. Old-school basketball purists hate what the game has become, but it gets ratings and puts people in the stands.

But the rest of the world doesn’t play this style of basketball. The international rules create a game that levels the playing field, where superior individual talents can be neutralized by a team of inferior players, and slow-moving, low-scoring games are more likely to take place than the high-scoring shootouts that we want to see. By definition, putting together a team of NBA players to play the international game is the same as trying to fit a square peg in a round hole (or whatever the metaphor is). I applaud and congratulate the current USA team for their valiant efforts in putting this team together in their quest for the gold. I respect the fact that these players have played through three consecutive summers, a time when most players are relaxing on the beach after a grueling 82 game season, in order to be here. But mostly, I hope that the rest of the country can appreciate the fact that these players have sacrificed their egos in order to play in these Olympics, and have put in countless hours of work to become a team that we can be proud of, and can appreciate that while there will never be another Dream Team, that our current team is pretty good as well.

The Debut of Team USA

It's one thing to speculate and predict how Team USA will perform in the Olympics, and playing FIBA rules basketball in general. Watching the exhibition game against Canada the other day really opened my eyes to how different the games really are and how difficult this journey could be for Team USA. It's important to note that while Canada is an international team on the rise and have been playing together (in real, competitive games) for over a month while unsuccessfully trying to qualify for the Olympics, they are not a very good team, and are easily worse than any team that the US will see if Olympic play.

I was very interested to notice that the comfort level in the international game still isn't there for the whole team. When you watch Canada, their shooters naturally drift to the FIBA 3-point line, always getting the most efficient 3-point shot and usually making it. The Canadian players were also moving much more naturally, while I felt that USA players were thinking more than just reacting. Obviously, this is the reason they are playing these exhibition games and shouldn't be a problem by the time the Olympics come around. The FIBA game and the NBA game are similar rules-wise, but there are several things that are allowed in FIBA that NBA players have been coached AGAINST their whole careers.

One of these rules is playing a ball on the rim. In FIBA, there is no cylinder rule- you can play a ball off the rim, offensively or defensively. Chris Bosh had a nice play where he dunked home a Chris Paul layup that might have gone in anyway. If exploited correctly, this rule could be huge for the US because Paul and Deron Williams are so good at simply getting the ball to the rim on their drives.

Here's a (relatively) quick rundown of how I thought each player performed in their exhibition game against Canada:

Jason Kidd- I like the role that Jason Kidd fills on this team. He's the unquestioned starter at point guard, as well as one of the team leaders, but when everything is all said and done I think that Kidd will end up towards the bottom of the team in terms of minutes played. Kidd has aged very noticeably, and Chris Paul and Deron Williams are simply too good to keep off the court. That said, Kidd does a great job of setting the tempo that Team USA wants to play at, and I love the way he gets the ball up the court and out of his hands as fast as possible. Watch when he gets an outlet pass after a rebound (or grabs the rebound himself, as Kidd is always around the big bodies down low for rebound opportunities)- he rarely dribbles to advance the ball. As soon as he sees an opportunity up ahead, Kidd finds the fastest way to get him the ball and lets them do the work.

Kidd's impact on the rest of the team is easy to see. Because of his abilities to hit the open man, everyone runs the court knowing that they most likely will get the ball (Carmelo enjoys this the most). But more importantly, the vision and unselfish play of Kidd has really spread to the rest of the team. Kidd has had mixed results trying to instill this unselfishness to his teammates in the NBA, but when surrounded with a group of elite players that all look up to him, it's easy to see them buying into his style of play.

Kobe Bryant- I really enjoy watching Kobe act as a part of this team, and it's clear that he enjoys the role that he's playing. Kobe is completely content acting as the defensive stopper, and as he gets more comfortable with the absence of hand-check rules on the perimeter, Kobe will absolutely shut down whoever he's guarding. There was one play against Canada where Kobe smothered Carl English (one of the better Canadian players), pinning him at halfcourt before wrestling the ball away for an easy breakaway dunk. In FIBA rules, the defender can get very physical with the ball-handler on the perimeter (something that Kobe tries to get away with anyway), and the rules almost give him an unfair advantage here. Obviously Kobe is in phenomenal shape, and he doesn't have to save any energy for offense (like he does for the Lakers), so his relentless defensive efforts never ease up.

On the other side of the ball, Kobe does a good job letting the action come to him. With Kidd and the other great point guards on the team, Kobe doesn't need to dominate the ball (and LeBron wasn't even playing in this last game), so he becomes a spot-up shooter and a bail-out option late in the clock. Kobe still has the ability to quickly score on anyone in a variety of ways, but he knows that he doesn't need to look for his own offense all the time. Kobe also spaces the floor very well- the range on his shot is just ridiculous, and I doubt that FIBA players are used to guys camping out that deep behind the line. I'm sure that Kobe will flip the switch and take over a game offensively at some point, but for now I've really liked his attitude and general demeanor on the court.

Dwyane Wade- Starting in place of LeBron James (who could have played if it wasn't an exhibition game), Wade made the most of his first televised game since his latest injury. It's safe to say that Wade is healthy again. The most surprising thing for me was how well Wade fit in at the small forward spot. My biggest questions about Wade before this game were his health, and what position he would/could play (I had speculated that he might be playing a lot of point guard). Wade has that great midrange jumper which he's extended to the FIBA 3-point line, and like Kobe, he did a good job of letting the action come to him instead of forcing the issue.

At this point, don't expect Wade to play any point guard in the Olympics. He is actually very well suited to be a 2/3 in this style of ball, and his size at the small forward position isn't a disadvantage, given his strength and athleticism.

It's great to see Wade healthy again. Given his recent run of injuries and generally poor play (most likely due to playing hurt), it's easy to forget how dominant of a player Wade can be- this is the same guy who averaged over 30 points per game in the NBA Finals. It sounds like Coach K and the entire team were surprised with his level of play, and I think that they're going to be able to use Wade much more than initially predicted.

Carmelo Anthony- Carmelo continues to amaze me every time I watch him play. At this point, it's no secret that Carmelo loves the international game, but he still comes out and exceeds expectations. To me, the most underrated aspect of Carmelo's game is his use of the triple threat position- his jumper is so accurate that everyone has to respect it, but his deceivingly fast first step allows him to get by anyone playing him too close. This is why his ability to simply face the basket and make one jab step can buy him so much room. It looks like he's settling when he does this, but the reality is that he is able to free up so much space that he's basically shooting an uncontested jumper. 

Carmelo always gets a good chunk of his points from easy dunks, and it's because of 2 unique skills that he utilizes. In the halfcourt, Carmelo is very good at making subtle cuts along the baseline to get right under the basket, and also at just shuffling and planting himself in an open space, almost like a tight end settling into a soft spot in the defense and waiting for the quarterback to find him. With so many great players on the team, Carmelo just has to find that spot and wait for the ball to find him. Carmelo is also an expert of leaking out on the break- again, some call it being lazy, but he really does have a knack of reading the play and knowing that his team will come up with the rebound, loose ball, or steal, and getting to the other end for an easy dunk.

Dwight Howard- The international game really is all about perimeter players- what really surprised me is how most of the game is played between the 3-point lines, as opposed to around the baskets. Howard, as I predicted, really isn't a good fit for international play. Against Canada, he really didn't seem to make too much of an impact, and I thought that Chris Bosh played much better than Howard. He's still the starter, and a lot of what he does for Team USA won't show up on the stat sheet, but it was interesting to see how few chances he had to make plays offensively.

Michael Redd- It's really interesting to see just how deep the NBA 3-point line is compared to the FIBA lines. For Redd, shooting FIBA 3-pointers looks as effortless as a free throw. There were several reports that he was absolutely on fire in practices, and he didn't disappoint in the Canada game. Redd made it look easy as he dropped in 20 points against Canada, and it really looks like any time he gets a shot off it's going in. It should be interesting to watch Redd when teams try to go zone against the US, because Redd is definitely best zone-breaker the team has had in the past 8 years, and I think that his shooting ability will really discourage teams from playing as much zone as they otherwise would.

Chris Bosh- I thought that Bosh looked great in the exhibition game. He really is an international-style center, and he seemed much more comfortable in this setting than Howard or Carlos Boozer. Bosh swoops around the floor, and can also hit the jumper with some range (I haven't seem him attempt an international 3, but I wouldn't be surprised if he takes/makes a few). Because of his speed and long arms, Bosh actually plays much bigger than I realized- against most teams in the Olympics, Bosh should be fine at the center position.

Deron Williams- So much for the alleged point guard battle- Deron Williams appears to be a 2-guard on this team. Williams is definitely big and strong enough to play the shooting guard position (in both the NBA and FIBA play), and with his quickness and point guard abilities, makes Team USA much harder to defend. Since he's on the second unit, I don't forsee too many situations where Williams wouldn't be able to play the 2-guard, and I really like the decision by Coach K.

Chris Paul- Forget anything I said about Chris Paul not being a good fit on the team, because Paul is clearly ready for the Olympics. Paul has gotten MUCH stronger since I last saw him in international play, and he is more than capable of holding his own against opposing point guards. Coach K looks like he solved his point guard issue by playing Williams at the 2, next to Paul at the point, and it looks to be a good fit. Paul, as predicted, is going to be a great weapon defensively with his ball pressure. Like Kobe, Paul is only going to get better at using his body defensively, and his feet are already so quick that he has no problem playing pressure defense the entire length of the court. Since Team USA uses defensive pressure and deflections to fuel their fast break, Paul's pressure on opposing point guards will be crucial.

Offensively, Paul is best described as "efficient." Even though he throws as many alley-oop passes as anyone, it isn't to be flashy- it's because the lob pass is often the best way to get the ball to the bigs. His ability to take his man off the dribble is just scary, and he has really embraced the physicality of the international game more than I expected, and seems to be using this move where he intentionally runs himself into opposing players when he has the ball, almost setting a screen on someone else's man while keeping his dribble alive. Paul has always been feisty and an intense competitor, and is a great weapon on both ends to bring off the bench.

Tayshaun Prince- I really don't get why Prince is on this team. From a physical standpoint, Prince really doesn't look like he belongs on the court. Even with LeBron sitting the game out, Prince didn't make his presence felt at either end, and I'm really not sure what kind of element he brings to the team. With Tyson Chandler injured and most likely not able to play, Prince probably would have ended up on the team anyway, but I still don't like it.

Carlos Boozer- The exhibition game really showed how little Boozer is going to play unless there is foul or injury trouble. The international game is played with only one (at most) true big, meaning that Boozer can only play when Howard and Bosh aren't in the game. Team USA generally uses Carmelo at the 4, and it sounds like LeBron will spend some time there as well. That said, I like the way Boozer fills the center spot and trust his ability to fill in when needed.

Coach K- It isn't necessarily easy to coach a team with this much talent. Obviously, all of these stars have done a great job removing their egos and embracing their roles, but it still isn't easy to find the right combinations, and balance playing time, over the course of a 40 minute game. First off, it looks like Prince and Boozer won't get too many minutes unless there is an injury or serious foul trouble. I'm sure that both players understand that and, being late additions, shouldn't have any problems with that. Aside from those 2, it gives Team USA a very talented and versatile 10 man rotation. It seems that Coach K is going to take an all-star game approach to managing the lineups, subbing in waves of 2, 3 or even 4 players at a time, forming clearly defined units on the floor. Given that there's only been one game so far, it's hard to say if he was experimenting or if this will be his real approach, so I'll be looking for that as the team plays more exhibition games.

Overall, I loved the attitude and effort of Team USA. They were completely focused defensively, which is going to be a big key for them, and their fast-break game will be very hard to stop. That said, their half-court offense leaves a little to be desired. Their team shooting is actually quite good- almost everyone on the team can hit the FIBA 3-pointer (Paul and Wade really surprised me here)- but the ball movement and penetration still doesn't come naturally. I think the addition of LeBron will help to solve this problem. LeBron is a facilitator, and I think you'll see much more cutting and movement without the ball when LeBron has the ball- his size allows him to easily read the defense, and his attacking style really puts pressure on the opposing team, as opposed to letting them dictate our offense.

It's really important for Team USA to play in as many of these games as possible before the Olympics begin- starting tomorrow morning, they are playing 4 exhibition games against other countries. The more familiar they get with the international style of play, the better off they will be.

Free Agency Chaos

Basketball, more than any other sport, allows teams a faster turnaround between seasons- just ask the Celtics. Because fewer players contribute to each team than in other professional sports, the addition or subtraction of just one or two players can completely change a team's makeup and competitiveness. Every year, the draft and free agency offer new hope to teams that underperformed the past season, or the chance to load up for a run at the championship for teams that just missed out in the playoffs. 

This off-season was supposed to be a relatively quiet one, but as soon as the free agency period began on July 9, it has been anything but that. Here's my take on some of the biggest moves so far, and what they mean for the future of those teams.

 

Philadelphia 76ers- Elton Brand

The 76ers have made easily the biggest splash in free agency by landing power forward Elton Brand, who surprised everyone by opting out of his contract right before the deadline. Then, after Baron Davis signed with the Clippers (more on that in a second) and seemingly had an agreement for Brand to resign so they could play together, Brand surprisingly bolted for Philly. At the end of the day, Brand could get more money (but not more guaranteed years) from the Sixers, but more importantly, Brand would be able to be most competitive with the Sixers. Philadelphia has an exciting, young core, and surprisingly made the playoffs (even beating the Pistons twice in the first round) last season. They were set at every position except for power forward, and with Brand looking like he would re-sign with the Clippers, the Sixers had set their sights on Atlanta's restricted free agent Josh Smith. 

Now, with Brand in the fold, the Sixers look to be a solid playoff team right away, and a legitimate title contender as soon as next year. The Sixers add Brand to a core that includes veteran floor general Andre Miller, budding superstar swingman Andre Iguodala, and defensive specialist Samuel Dalembert. They also have young, talented players who exceeded expectations such as speedy guard Louis Williams, athletic forward Thaddeus Young, who played out of position at the 4 last season, big man Jason Smith and this year's first round pick, Marreese Speights. Iguodala spent last season as the go-to guy for Philly, but he's really best suited as a complimentary player, someone who helps his team win by filling the stat sheet and doing all the little things. Iguodala can play either guard position as well as small forward, bring the ball up the floor and start the offense, finish on the break, and most importantly, lock down the best player on the other team. With Brand now starring as the go-to guy, Iguodala will be in position to have his best season as a pro.

The best thing about this move for the Sixers is that they don't have to change a thing about their team- their only need was a power forward, and they were able to pick up one of the league's best in Brand without losing any of their players (other than Rodney Carney, who was traded for cap space). Brand can step in to his natural position on a team that fits all of his strengths. Defensively, the front line of Young, Brand and Dalembert will be one of the best in the league, as Philly will still try to make their living on the defensive end to ignite the fast-break. But this year, when their running game slows down, they will have Brand, a proven 20+ point per game scorer, to score in the post and draw double teams to open up the rest of the half-court offense. Their biggest remaining need is a shooter to help space the floor, but they should be able to pick up a knockdown shooter for a relatively cheap price. Although I feel bad for the Clippers, who came so close to the best pairing of players they've ever had, I love the move by Philadelphia and am really looking forward to the seeing the success of a well-built team.

 

Los Angeles Clippers- Baron Davis, Marcus Camby 

The Clippers have been one of the other biggest players in free agency after getting burned by Brand, recovering with the signing of superstar point guard Baron Davis and the "trade" for Marcus Camby. 

The book on Davis is pretty simple. When healthy, he is simply one of the best players in the league, and in that elite class of players who can singlehandedly control a game. He showcased this ability in the 2006 playoffs, when the red-hot Warriors upset the best team in the league, the Mavericks, in the first round of the playoffs. With all the wear and tear on his body, along with the thick beard that has become his trademark, it is easy to forget that Baron is still only 29 years old, and while he has had his share of injuries over his career, the missed time takes considerable mileage off of his body. When he is on his game, there really isn't much Baron can't do on the court, offensively or defensively. It's hard to really describe what Baron does to make him so dominant, but his creativity as well as his flair for the dramatic really set him apart from others. Pairing Baron with Elton Brand would have been the best collection of talent the Clippers have ever had, and probably would have put them in the same class as Western Conference powers such as Utah and Houston.

Now, with Brand out of the picture, the Clippers decided against trying to sign restricted free agents Josh Smith or Emeka Okafor, and instead stole center Marcus Camby from the Nuggets for a future second round pick (better known as "nothing"). Camby has been one of my favorite players ever since he burst onto the national scene with the Knicks, replacing the injured Patrick Ewing on their run to the Finals. Since then, Camby has been one of the league's best defensive forces- a phenomenal rebounder and arguably the best shot blocker in the league. His frail build makes him prone to injuries, but he has played more games the last 2 seasons than he ever had for 2 consecutive seasons. Either this means he's due for an injury or he's simply learned how to take care of himself a little better. He doesn't offer much offensively- he has a streaky midrange jumper that he has a tendency to shoot a little too often- but he is a good finisher, runs the floor very well and has the ability to take his man off the dribble if they're not paying close enough attention to him.

The Clippers already have a very good center in Chris Kaman, a true 7 footer who can score in a variety of ways and is a good rebounder, but isn't a great defensive player. Camby (who is athletic enough to play the 4) and Kaman will be great compliments to each other in one of the biggest frontlines in the league, and would fill out a Clippers roster that now has Davis at the point, Cuttino Mobely and rookie Eric Gordon at shooting guard, and the athletic Al Thorton at small forward. With the frontcourt of Camby and Kaman protecting the rim, and the aggressive backcourt of Davis, Gordon and Mobely, the Clippers have the potential to be a very good defensive team, and will try to use their defense and control of the boards to fuel a running game, where Davis, Gordon and Thorton will excel. I think that this move, along with some smaller moves to fill out their currently thin roster, will make the Clippers playoff contenders this season.

One more important note- while it seems risky to pair two expensive, injury-prone players in Camby and Davis, it needs to be mentioned that Camby's contract comes off the books in 2010, the much-anticipated summer where several superstars will be free agents. If the Clippers can show improvement over these next two years, they could definitely be in the running to land a high-impact player that summer.

 

How does the Camby move affect other teams? For one, it lets the Hawks and Bobcats breathe a little easier, as the Clippers were the last realistic threat to try and sign Josh Smith (Hawks) or Emeka Okafor (Bobcats). Now, no other team has the money available to sign these restricted free agents to an expensive offer that they might not be inclined to match. I find it interesting that neither of these teams have proactively tried to resign their players, taking a wait-and-see approach. The Hawks have publicly stated that they want to keep Josh Smith at all costs, and I'd expect them to wrap up a reasonable deal with him shortly. However, the Bobcats have been much more passive with Okafor, almost seeming like they wanted him to sign an offer sheet somewhere else, so that they could either match the offer or work a sign-and-trade. Okafor is an interesting player to me. After a few years in the league, it is clear that while he is a very good defensive player, he isn't a true center and really isn't much of an offensive threat. The Bobcats drafted him to be the face of their franchise, but it's a difficult situation because any team that boasts Okafor as their best player probably won't ever be very good- he's best suited as a complimentary player who can do the dirty work defensively and on the boards, and contribute 10-15 points a game on garbage buckets and a few plays run for him offensively. I get the feeling that Okafor isn't too interested in staying with the Bobcats for the rest of his career, and it would seem that the Bobcats want to keep Okafor, but don't want to pay him franchise-player money. I think a trade would make the most sense for both parties.

The other team that this trade (obviously) affects is the Denver Nuggets. While Camby did have a large salary (which actually costs twice as much to the Nuggets because they have to pay the luxury tax) and is getting older, it's amazing that they literally gave him away and got nothing in return. As I already said, Camby is a dominant defensive player, and made up for the gambling style of Iverson and the generally indifferent defensive play of Carmelo. He didn't ask for the ball on offense, and ran the floor to keep up with the high-octane attack of the Nuggets. This leaves the Nuggets with only two players who can really play center- Nene, who is just coming back from beating testicular cancer and has always been an injury risk, and Steven Hunter, who really isn't a NBA-caliber starter. Kenyon Martin is their only other post player besides those two, and he has a long history of injuries as well. The trade does give the Nuggets a $10 million trade exception, which means they can take back more salary than they give away in a trade, but taking back a big salary in a trade would defeat the point of giving Camby away in the first place. In my opinion, this is public relations nightmare for the Nuggets, and leaves them with two options: 1) They play this season out with their current roster (and maybe some smaller signings), basically saying that the playoffs would be exceeding expectations, waiting for Iverson's contract to run out at the end of the season, and rebuilding around Carmelo from there; or 2) they make another big move this summer, either trading Iverson and his expiring contract, or trading Carmelo for a ton of assets. Honestly, I'm not sure what they do. If they trade Carmelo and then let Iverson's contract expire, they are essentially starting from scratch, which doesn't make much sense. But at the same time, staying with their current roster (option 1) means that they will be going from a 50-win team to a team scraping to make the playoffs, and admitting that the Iverson trade was a mistake. This was a bad move for the Nuggets, and as much as I like to see a team shake things up, I don't think that this move made much sense at all.

 

Washington Wizards- Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison

While the re-signing of Arenas and Jamison was sort of a non-move by the Wizards, it's still worth noting, as this free agency period could have been a major turning point for the Wizards franchise. They had a big decision to make, choosing to keep Jamison and Arenas (basically a package deal), and keep the core of a team that has been exciting, but always had injury problems when the postseason rolled around. They could have chosen to go in the complete opposite direction, losing their captain (Jamison) and most popular player (Arenas), choosing to use the saved money to sign a big free agent, like Brand or Baron Davis, to pair with Caron Butler. While the latter seems to be the option that most of the media outside of Washington would have liked to see, I think that the Wizards did the right thing by keeping their own players. Arenas has more value in DC than anywhere else, as he is one of the most popular athletes ever in the Washington area, and Jamison is the captain and leader of a young and reckless team.

So can the Wizards contend with this core group? I think the answer is yes. When healthy, the "Big 3" of Arenas, Butler and Jamison is among the most talented trios in the league (try finding one that matches up outside of Boston or LA). The team really grew, on both sides of the ball, when Arenas was injured last season. The key here is for Arenas to buy into the team concept, and defer to Butler and Jamison when necessary. That said, it's easy to forget that Arenas is one of the most prolific scorers in the league, as well as an amazingly dangerous weapon when the clock is winding down. But everyone knows that the Wizards can score points. To really contend for a championship, which Washington believes they can, the Wizards need to commit themselves to the defense. They have the ability to be a good defensive team, as does just about every team in the league, the question is if they can put in the effort on a nightly basis. I thought the Cleveland series, even though the lost, was a huge step for the franchise, as they really got tough with the Cavs, and came together as a team in their short-handed attempt to take down LeBron and the Cavs.

 

Golden State Warriors- Corey Maggette

My biggest pet peeve for NBA teams is treading water, or staying in no-mans land, by making moves that don't significantly improve the current team and also don't help the team rebuild in the long term. Unfortunately, one of the most exciting teams in the NBA for the past 2 years, the Warriors, are doing just that. With a ton of money to spend now that Baron Davis is off the books, the Warriors felt that they needed to spend it somewhere, and fast (despite wasting a $10 million trade exception that expired on July 1 after trading away Jason Richardson during last year's draft). With former Clipper Corey Maggette the best remaining unrestricted free agent on the market, the Warriors offered him a contract a few million over the mid-level exception. This will keep the Warriors as an exciting, high-scoring team, but it definitely doesn't make them a dramatically better team right now, and Maggette isn't young enough to be considered a major piece of a rebuilding plan. For next season, a starting line-up of Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Maggette, Al Harrington (or Brandan Wright) and Andris Biedrins with lots of young talent coming off the bench is good enough to win 40 to 45 games, which would put them right on the playoff bubble again, and of course, have them picking in the late lottery again. And probably the year after that. And so on.

Which brings me back to my pet peeve- barring any significant change, or a run of luck like they had in 2006, the Warriors will not be a significant contender in the near future, and will not be a bad enough team (unless injury strikes) to land a top draft pick. It's a big problem in the NBA, one that several teams can't seem to figure out. Will Maggette keep the Warriors as an exciting and competitive team? Absolutely. But to become championship contenders, the Warriors need to make a major trade that puts them in contention immediately, or a move that lands them young players, high draft picks and cap space, and have Ellis, Biedrins, Wright and Anthony Randolph lead a rebuilding movement that puts them in a position to win big 2-3 years from now.

 

New Orleans Hornets- James Posey

The most recent move probably won’t get as much fanfare as the other big free agent signings, but the Hornets signing James Posey is a big move for a franchise with legitimate championship aspirations. Posey, as I've written before in this space, is simply a winner. He has won 2 championships (with 2 different teams) in the past 3 years and has distinguished himself as someone that you want on your team if you're going to contend for the championship. An unrestricted free agent, Posey was a hot commodity, and while he's probably getting paid more than he should, he will definitely help the Hornets in their quest to win a championship. Posey is a great defensive player- he's not an outstanding man-to-man defender, but he is a great team defender who plays within the scheme and elevates the play of everyone on that side of the ball when he's in the game. Offensively he doesn't offer much besides his clutch 3-point shooting, but he isn't afraid of taking a big shot and makes smart decisions. The problems with Posey getting 4 guaranteed years is that he is already 31 years old, and will be getting paid as much this upcoming season as he will be when he's 35. The Hornets saved money by trading their draft pick this season, and have definitely put all of their eggs in one basket with this move.

Posey probably won't start for the Hornets- their starting 5 of Chris Paul, Morris Peterson, Peja Stojakovic, David West and Tyson Chandler is already set in stone, so Posey will fill his familiar role of 6th man. He will play the 2, 3 and 4 spots for the Hornets, taking on the task of guarding the opponents best perimeter player when he's in the game, and aggressively running the floor, knowing that Paul will reward him on the break. His value will only increase as the year goes on, and his impact on playoff games can't be quantified by numbers. Ask anyone on the Celtics- they wouldn't have won the championship without him. I think that the Hornets will be very happy with this addition, and it definitely puts them on the short list of championship contenders this upcoming season.

 

For everyone who checks this space on a regular basis, I apologize for the delay since my last post. With so many changes every day, I wanted to find a good breaking point before offering my opinions on moves that had actually happened. I will be coming back shortly with some speculation on more things to look for as the offseason continues, as well as some comments on the Summer Leagues that have be going on in Orlando and Las Vegas. As always, thanks for reading.

Team USA

The 2008 version of Team USA is, in my opinion, the best team that the US has fielded in the Olympics since the original Dream Team. The current roster is loaded with NBA mega-stars, young talent, and a trio of tri-captains who have experienced defeat in the previous Olympics. In Beijing, Team USA will make a commitment to defense, preventing easy baskets while forcing turnovers that will lead to quick buckets on the other end. Since USA has the best collection of athletes in the world, they will look to exploit this advantage by running the fast break as much as possible. This Olympic team also represents the culmination of a three-year program designed to re-establish the United States as an international powerhouse, and they will be looking not just to beat the other teams, but to run them off the court like they did in the 90s.

The international game is very different from the NBA game, which is a big reason that Team USA has struggled for the past few years. International basketball stresses team play and can neutralize selfish, individual talents with zone defenses and much more physical play than is allowed in the NBA. While this Team USA has a collection of superstars, they have been taught to put their egos aside in order to thrive in this style of basketball. Following is the 12-man Olympic roster, and my take on the role that each player will fill.

Jason Kidd- Easily the oldest player on Team USA, some would argue (myself included) that Kidd is probably the worst of the 3 point guards on the 12-man roster. So why is he starting? Because not only is Kidd the only player on the team who has already won Olympic gold, but he also boasts an undefeated record in international play. He is the master of running the break, something that Team USA plans to do as much as possible, and he has the best understanding of how to play the international game. Kidd is a great defensive rebounder, a skill which should allow the wing athletes of USA to release on the break quicker as Kidd corrals the rebounds and ignites the break.

Kobe Bryant- The next oldest player, Kobe prides himself on being the defensive specialist for Team USA, making it his task to completely shut down the best perimeter player on the other team (he proved his ability to do this against Brazil's Leandro Barbosa last summer). Of course, it's not like Kobe won't be contributing on offense as well. He is more than capable of bringing the ball up against pressure, and his outside shooting will be critical when opponents go to a zone defense (which will be often). Against man-to-man defense, Kobe can penetrate and make plays as well as anyone in the world. Playing for his country clearly means a lot to Kobe, and he took the team to the next level with his commitment to defense and all-around work ethic after his addition last summer.

LeBron James- LeBron is one of the physical marvels on Team USA has that no other country can match. His combination of size, speed and power is unmatched by the rest of the world (LeBron will be bigger than the starting center for some teams), and he will exploit this by getting out and running as much as possible, knowing that Kidd, Kobe and the rest of the guards will be able to find him. LeBron is probably the best finisher on the break in the world, which he doesn't get to showcase very much in Cleveland, so he really makes the most of his time with point guards like Kidd and Paul. Like Kobe, he will be taking his defense very seriously, and will have to be committed on the boards as well. Offensively, LeBron has to be careful not to fall in love with his jumper- even with the shorter three point line, LeBron is a very streaky shooter. While he has the size and jumping ability to get a clean look off at any time, he is more effective going hard to the basket and making things happen. LeBron is one of Team USA's tri-captains who only won the bronze in the 2004 Olympics.

Carmelo Anthony- He might not be the biggest name on the team, but Carmelo is the best player on Team USA in the international game (he has even admitted that he prefers playing the international style to NBA rules). Starting at power forward, Carmelo will more than likely be the leading scorer for Team USA. His game translates so well into international competition because the deep jumper that he loves to shoot, which is usually a long 2 in the NBA game, is a 3-pointer in the international game. He is a matchup nightmare for opposing teams- against bigger power forwards, Carmelo will use his quickness to blow by them and get to the rim, and against smaller defenders, he will either shoot his patented corner jumper over them, or use his size and take them in the post. He will also be leaking out on the break at every opportunity, where he is a terrific finisher. Anthony is another tri-captain of the team.

Dwight Howard- Like LeBron, Dwight Howard is simply on a different level physically than the rest of the world. In the brutal international game, Howard will have to control his emotions and swallow his pride, as his role will be limited to rebounding, shot-blocking and picking up garbage baskets (alley-oops, put-backs). USA big men have always had a hard time in the international game (ask Tim Duncan), where the refs won't protect them from the overly physical play down low, and the zone defenses that most teams will employ clog up the middle and limit their touches offensively. Also, Howard's free throw shooting problems make him a target for hard and frequent fouls. How Howard, who is still only 22, handles all of this will be a big factor in how well Team USA does. Despite all of the things going against him, Howard is one of the most dominant big men in the NBA and a vital cog for Team USA. His combination of strength and athleticism inside is enough for most teams to immediately go into a zone defense, which opens up the perimeter for USA's shooters, and his presence on defense will prevent teams from even attempting to finish at the rim.

Chris Bosh- Bosh is more of an international-style big man, who can step out and hit a jumper and also take his man to the basket off the dribble. Physically he's not even close to being on Howard's level, and he will have trouble banging down low, but Bosh is a great offensive weapon who will make Team USA much harder to defend. He's also a great runner who should be able to beat his man down the floor for easy scores. When Bosh is in at center without Howard or Boozer in to protect him, USA might have to turn down their running game and make a more concerted effort on defensive rebounding, as Bosh probably can't control the boards by himself like Howard can.

Dwyane Wade- The third tri-captain of the team, Wade has been committed to this process since the bronze-medal showing 4 years ago, and redeeming that effort clearly means a lot to him. He will usually be the first man off the bench and can step in at either backcourt position. He's another superior athlete who will look to get out and run on the break, and his penetration skills offensively will force the other teams into the zone defense. However, Wade isn't a true point guard (meaning that he will be competing with Kobe for playing time), and I'm really not sure how well he fits into the overall scheme of the team, given that he isn't a great outside shooter, a big part of the problem on the 2004 team. Defensively he can lock down both guard spots, and this might be his greatest value for the team. That said, despite his captain status, I wouldn't be surprised if Wade isn't happy with his minutes.

Michael Redd- Redd is on the team for only one reason- shooting. A premier 3 point shooter in the NBA, the shorter international 3-point line is like a free throw for him, and he will be put in as the designated "zone breaker." With most teams going zone against the bigger and stronger Team USA, Redd will simply float around the perimeter and knock down the open shots that the zone defense allows. He's also a good defender when he wants to be (usually not the case in Milwaukee), and will help out on the defensive boards before trailing the break and looking for open 3's.

Carlos Boozer- Boozer is the most surprising addition to the team, as he hasn't participated in the summer programs for the past 2 years (even though both were for injury and personal reasons). That said, Boozer has the powerful, stocky build that most international big men have, and he will be counted on to do all the dirty work at center. He probably won't ever be paired with Howard, but he will see some time in the same lineup as Bosh, as they compliment each other very well. Boozer is basically playing in place of Amare Stoudamire, and while he isn't as explosive of an athlete, has a very similar game to Stoudamire. He is equally comfortable in the post as he is shooting a mid-range jumper, and he can knock bodies around down low with the best of them. The biggest downside to Boozer filling the back-up center spot is that he doesn't provide the shot-blocking defensive presence that Howard, Stoudamire or Tyson Chandler would to anchor the defense.

Deron Williams- The next in line as the starting point guard for Team USA, Williams has the size to handle the stronger, more aggressive point guards that most international teams use. He will split time with Wade and Paul as a backup point guard, although I think he will end up getting more minutes than originally expected. He is a better ball-handler and smarter passer than Wade, and a better shooter than Paul. Williams uses his quickness and devastating cross-over to get into the lane almost at will, and he is fearless at the rim. Defensively, his end to end speed and man-to-man defense are his biggest issues, so he won't be able to pressure the ball full-court like Paul or Wade can, although he will be able to body the opposing point guards in the half-court.

Chris Paul- Paul is another point guard that will split time with Wade and Williams. After Kidd, he is the best at running the break, which is a crucial part of Team USA's game, and he can apply full-court pressure on opposing point guards. The problem is that Paul isn't a great outside shooter and is relatively small for international competition. Smaller guards have notoriously struggled in international competition (Allen Iverson), and even as strong as Paul is, he might have more trouble than anyone is anticipating. It's hard for me to doubt Chris Paul, but it's definitely a cause for concern. Offensively, Paul can easily penetrate against man-to-man defenses, but the zone defenses that opposing teams will employ could really give Paul trouble.

Tayshaun Prince- The USA decision-makers like Prince as a versatile defender who can guard four positions. He's also the selfless, team-oriented type of player that Team USA is looking for. That said, I don't like the decision to have Prince on the team. He is the true 12th man, so in the end it might not make a difference (look at the 12th men on the past Gold medal teams), but I think they should have taken Tyson Chandler instead.

Each team can carry 6 reserves who can be added to the team due to injury until August 6.

Tyson Chandler- Chandler, like Howard, is the type of athlete that almost every other country simply won't be able to match up with. He is a selfless player who never looks for his own points, and would have understood his rebounding/shot-blocking role as well as anyone. Team USA currently only has 3 true "bigs" (although Carmelo and LeBron will both see a lot of time at power forward), and they could have used Chandler as insurance in case Howard gets hurt or in foul trouble (which is very likely). As it stands, Chandler is the first reserve for Team USA, and would be the first added to the team in the event of injury. I feel bad for Chandler, who is one of my favorite players in the league anyway, because he is a better fit for this current team than Prince.

The other 5 reserves are Mike Miller (who was competing with Redd for the "designated shooter" spot), Shawn Marion, Kevin Durant, Joe Johnson and Chauncey Billups. After Chandler, Miller and Johnson would be the most likely additions to the team in the event of injury.

There are three players who I have problems with being on the team- Boozer, Paul and Prince. From the beginning of this new era for USA basketball, all of the players that were going to be on the 2008 Olympic team were expected to make a 3 year commitment, being a part of the team every summer. Carlos Boozer has not been a part of any of these summer programs. As I said earlier, there were reasons for Boozer missing these sessions, including injury and personal matters, which I have no right to question. But last summer, when Wade couldn't play because of an injured shoulder, he was still in Las Vegas attending all of the team's practices, traveling with the team, and sitting on the bench during the games. He couldn't play, but he was still very much a part of the team. A big factor in Boozer being on the team is the injury to Amare Stoudamire- Boozer fills an obvious need on the team (in a different way than Chandler would), so at the end of the day I don't really have that big of an issue with the decision, but it was interesting to me as he was such an unexpected addition.

Criticizing Chris Paul is almost blasphemous, but it is worth noting to me that Team USA seems to be carrying too many point guards. Jason Kidd had to be on the team- he's the leader, the coach on the floor, and a veteran of the international game. For the young and inexperienced Team USA, Kidd is invaluable. Dwyane Wade, one of the captains, will most likely be playing a good amount of point guard off the bench (put it this way- he's not taking minutes from Kobe, LeBron or Carmelo), and as a captain, he is almost guaranteed a certain amount of minutes. That's already 2 point guards. From there, the issue for Team USA was making the decision between Deron Williams and Chris Paul, which is already looking to be an all-time argument as to who is better (remember, Williams was taken one pick before Paul in the 2005 Draft). It would have been extremely difficult, simply from a PR perspective, for USA to take one and not the other, but it would have been even harder to take Williams over Paul, who was the MVP runner-up this past season, as well as one of the most media-friendly players in the league. As dominant as Williams is, he doesn't get nearly as much national attention as Paul does. All that said, Williams is a better fit for the international game, for reasons I listed above. On talent, Paul and Williams are better players, regardless of position, than anyone else that would have made the team, so their selections are both justified, but at the same time USA probably needs more size and they might be sacrificing a bigger player to include both point guards.

Boozer and Paul, even though I might not like their choices, both fill specific roles on the team (Boozer replacing the offensive game of Stoudamire, Paul as a defensive/change of pace point guard). The selection of Prince, however, is what I really have a problem with. As the last player selected, Tayshaun Prince was brought in specifically to be a versatile defensive specialist. But Prince simply doesn't fit in well with the international game- he is a streaky shooter from outside, and his light frame will result in him getting knocked around too much (especially if he is playing the 4). Also, the role of defensive specialist really isn't that important for this team- they already have Kobe and LeBron to guard virtually any scoring threat that other teams might have. When those two are focused primarily on defense, they are two of the most dominant defenders in the league. I guarantee that there isn't anyone that Team USA will face who would have more success being guarded by Kobe or LeBron than they would being guarded by Prince.

This all brings me back to the snubbing of Tyson Chandler. Even in the NBA game, Chandler is a role player. He guards the best post player on the other team, controls the boards on both ends (his specialty is slapping an offensive rebound back to his team), and is a dominant shot-blocker. He doesn't care about getting his own points, but still tries to beat his man down the floor for easy dunks, and is one of the best alley-oop finishers in the league. Most importantly for this team, he is 7'1 with long arms, and is an explosive athlete. Going back to the points I made earlier about LeBron and Howard, Team USA should be flexing its muscles with the best athletes in the world- physical specimens like Chandler that simply can't be matched by other countries. If you're going to carry a 12th man who will only be used in specific situations, why not carry someone like Chandler, who is a true defensive specialist that doesn't duplicate the talents of anyone else on the team? He brings a specific skill-set and attitude, and would really only see time if Howard was in foul trouble. All that said, Chandler is not yet a house-hold name (while Prince has slowly become one) and is not an NBA champion (a distinction Prince has held since his rookie season). He is still extremely young and has been a part of this process from Day 1, so he'll definitely be on several future teams, but I really disagree with the selection of Prince over Chandler.

Even with this collection of talent, Team USA doesn't intimidate teams like they used to. They will always have a huge bulls-eye on their back, because simply beating Team USA is such an accomplishment for the other countries. Also, the talent level of the rest of the world has slowly started to catch up to the United States, and the teams from the rest of the world have been playing together for much longer than the US team has. That said, this Team USA is much more committed to winning than the past few Olympic teams have been, and (as usual) it would be a huge shock if they don't win the gold, or even lose a single game. My prediction is that the easily win most of their games, with one close call in the earlier round and a hard-fought medal round. 

On a side note, ESPN and Nike are running a 5-part documentary series on Team USA called "Road to Redemption," which premiered last Wednesday. It gave lots of behind the scenes footage of the team and lots of player interviews, and I thought it was extremely well done. The first installment focused mainly on the 3 years since the last Olympics and the rebuilding of the program, and ended with the announcement of the official 12-man roster. I really recommend it to anyone interested on the team and the upcoming Olympic games. 

NBA Draft Recap

After having a few days to let the dust settle and most of the moves made official, here is my breakdown of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly (and everything else) of the 2008 NBA Draft.

Quick Note- Several times I discuss how likely an international draft prospect is to come and play in the NBA, and how it plays into their being drafted. The current state of professional basketball leagues overseas is on the rise- the leagues have more money and are willing to spend it on their countries top players. Recently, Jose Garbajosa and Juan Carlos Navarro both decided to leave the NBA for better contracts in Spain. Also, the NBA Draft has a strict structure for salaries and contracts for players taken in the first round, and the later in the first round the pick is, the less money that is guaranteed. The second round has no requirements, and a player controls their own destiny depending on how well they play. Because of these factors, international players taken late in the first round are less likely than ever to come over the play in the NBA. They can simply stay overseas and make more money. Players taken in the 2nd round are more likely to play in the NBA.

 

The Good- While several teams had "good" drafts, I wanted to highlight a few teams that proactively sought to improve their roster and outlook for the future, short or long term.

 

Miami Heat (Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers)

The Miami Heat, to me, had the best draft of anyone. After all the discussion of what they would do with Michael Beasley and the number 2 pick, they ended up making the smart move by filling a position of need with the best player in the draft. Even though he doesn't need any motivation on the court, I think all of the doubters will get to Beasley, and will only make him a tougher, better player. If the Heat stick with him, he will start and produce for them from Day 1. Even better, the Heat were able to pick up the perfect point guard to pair with Dwyane Wade in Mario Chalmers. The biggest issues with Chalmers are his ball-handling and foot-speed. He is a great defensive player with a knack for picking up steals, a clutch shooter, and simply a smart basketball player who knows how to win. Since Wade does most of the ball-handling, Chalmers just has to be able to hit open shots and guard the other teams point guard. This is a great situation for Chalmers, and a great value for the Heat, considering that Chalmers worked out extremely well for several teams and there was talk of him going in the 10-15 overall range. Getting him for a future second round pick is a steal, and I think he too could be starting right away for Miami.

I know that Riley doesn't love Beasley and wanted OJ Mayo, but he can't be too upset about a draft where he didn't give up anything long-term and got 2 legitimate starters in the process. They're still going to need a center not named Mark Blount (who should be on his way out, along with Jason Williams), so I don't think the Heat are done making moves, but up to this point a great draft for Miami.

 

New Jersey Nets (Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, Chris Douglas-Roberts)

Including the trade they made earlier in the day (which I already spoke about), the Nets had a great draft day where they were able to reload with young talent while setting themselves up to get LeBron (or one of the other stars who will be free agents) in 2010. By trading away Richard Jefferson, the Nets finished cutting all significant ties to the team that made it to the Finals in the early 2000s. When all was said and done, the Nets ended up with center Brook Lopez, a top-5 player and the best center in the draft who fell to them at 10, sweet-shooting forward Ryan Anderson, who may have been a reach at 21 but was a luxury pick for the Nets, Chris Douglas-Roberts, a first-round talent at shooting guard who fell to them at 40, and Yi Jianlian, who was the 6th overall pick in last years draft. Anderson wasn't really talked about too much until the days immediately leading up to the draft, but I actually saw him play a few times at Cal, and I think he will be a good player. At 6'10, he's an offensive specialist who right now is sort of a poor man's Dirk Nowitzki. He has good range on his very fundamental jump shot, and has some post moves as well. He isn't very fast, won't drive by anyone and needs to be protected on defense, but he should develop into a good role player. Like I said, he might have been a reach at 21, but after getting such great value for Lopez at 10 they had the freedom to take a player that they really wanted.

Put that crew of young players with young point guard Devin Harris, who they stole from the Mavs in the Jason Kidd deal, and explosive big man Shawn Williams, who is a great defensive player but has no offensive game, and of course the overpaid but under-motivated star Vince Carter, and the Nets really do have a good team. It'll take a while to come together, but I think they have assembled several talented players whose skills all complement each other. A starting line-up of Harris, Carter, Yi, Williams and Lopez with CDR and Anderson coming off the bench can be competitive in the very near future, and if you add LeBron to that mix in 2 years, they could contend for a championship right away.

 

Portland Trail Blazers (Jerryd Bayless, Nicholas Batum)

Anyone surprised that the Blazers were among the winners on draft day? Combining their slew of assets with the draft-day fall of Jerryd Bayless, Kevin Pritchard and the Blazers were able to pick up a top-5 talent who should be able to play next to Brandon Roy right away. Similar to the Chalmers-Wade situation I described above, Bayless gets to play to his strengths and ignore his weaknesses- he is a great offensive player but not a true point guard, and with Roy doing the majority of the ball-handling and running the offense, Bayless' lack of position becomes less of an issue. They were also able to pick up another player that they liked in Nicholas Batum. He isn't ready to play right now, but he'll play in the D-League or overseas for a year or two before coming in to help Portland. Given the young talent that the Blazers have already compiled, every pick is a luxury pick for them, and if Batum doesn't pan out it isn't that big of an issue. Portland still needs to find a veteran small forward to bring a little experience and maturity to the team, as well as consolidate their assets a little more, so they probably aren't done dealing, but as usual, a great draft for the Blazers. 

While we're on the topic, keep an eye on Gerald Wallace. The Blazers already have enough offense, and a versatile player who excels on defense like Wallace would be a great fit in Portland. With all the indecision going on in Charlotte (more on that later), they could be interested in a few of the young players that Pritchard is looking to trade. A deal here might work for both sides.

 

Indiana Pacers (Brandon Rush, Roy Hibbert)

The Blazers' draft day trade partners didn't fare too poorly themselves. The Pacers were able to completely reload over the course of two days, to the point where I think they can be a playoff team as soon as this coming season. They were able to trade Jermaine O'Neal for the explosive TJ Ford, and then surround him with wing players who can run the floor and shoot from deep in Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, and Brandon Rush, their first round pick this year. They also picked up defensive-minded point guard Jarrett Jack, who will be a perfect compliment to Ford coming off the bench, as well as 7'2 center Roy Hibbert, who should start at center next to forward Troy Murphey. Hibbert doesn't completely fit with the run-and-shoot image of the rest of the team, but he's a true center with a lot of offensive skills, and will find a way to contribute.

Funny side-note: Not only can the players drafted by the Pacers (Rush and Hibbert) not wear Indiana hats because the trades haven't been finalized yet (the O'Neal-Ford trade can't become official until July 9), but Larry Bird had apparently been instructed by the league not to even comment on the trades. I really enjoyed seeing Larry Bird stuck talking about how great of a player Jerryd Bayless (who they traded for Rush) is, and talking about the point guard situation that needs to be shored up (which has obviously been solved with the addition of Ford). Say what you will about David Stern, but executives around the league definitely listen to him.

 

Seattle SuperSonics (Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, DJ White, DeVon Hardin)

I wasn't too sure about the Sonics until the end of the draft. I loved their pick of Russell Westbrook at 4- they stayed in their spot and picked the guy that they wanted, and there's something to be said for that. The pick was justifiable given Westbrook's hot draft stock, and he is a great fit alongside of Kevin Durant. He should be able to step in right away as a Rondo-type point guard before expanding his game (speaking of Westbrook, check out this footage of his personal team workout with the Blazers). However, I didn't like the Sonic's other 1st round pick, taking Congo native Serge Ibaka, who will play overseas in Spain for at least one, if not two, more seasons. Yes, at 24 the risk factor of a player like this is greatly reduced, but the Sonics have tried this before with young center prospects, and none of them have worked out. If you're the Sonics, why not take a flier on DeAndre Jordan, let him develop in the NBDL where they can keep closer tabs on him, and see if that pans out. It's basically the same process, and Jordan, as risky of a prospect as he is, will at least be in the United States, and can form a friendship with Kevin Durant and the rest of the young Sonics as his game develops.

The Sonics redeemed themselves, however, by pairing 2 second-round picks to get Indiana bruiser DJ White, who should be able to play some center in the NBA, as well as Cal center DeVon Hardin, who should follow the path that I described for Jordan. Hardin is a huge, athletic center who even after four years at school is still extremely raw. If he can develop in the D-League, he would be a perfect defensive-minded center (think DeSagana Diop) to play with Durant, Green and Westbrook. 

Obviously the future is just that for the Sonics. But they have done a good job starting the rebuilding process, and as some of these big men develop, they have the makings of a legitimate contender.

 

 

The Bad- When you look around the league and wonder why you see such a disparity in the overall talent levels between teams, you don't have to look much farther than teams like these to find an explanation. A bad draft could set a team back several years, or in some of these cases, keep them just as bad as they already were.

 

Sacramento Kings (Jason Thompson, Sean Singletary, Patrick Ewing, Jr.)

I said earlier that you have to respect a team for staying at their draft spot and grabbing the guy that they want the most. The Kings were dealt a bad hand, as the top players on their board (DJ Augustin, Jerryd Bayless) were taken before they had a chance to draft. But the pick of Jason Thompson at 12, when he was a borderline first round talent, is inexcusable. If they really wanted Thompson that badly, they should have traded down, picked up some assets, and gotten their man in the early 20s. If he was off the board by then, no harm done, similar players like JJ Hickson or Darrell Arthur would have been there instead. For example, the Kings could have offered up the 12th pick to the Sonics for their 24th pick and one of their early second rounders, and probably could have gotten Thompson (or a similar player) at 24, and picked up Mario Chalmers in the 2nd round. The Sonics could have grabbed Robin Lopez or Roy Hibbert, and both teams would have been much improved.

None of this is a knock on Thompson- he's a big, skilled player who is probably ready to play right away- but my point is that a team like the Kings, who need so many things, were almost irresponsible in not trying to accumulate more than one impact player here. Their second round picks weren't too bad- Singletary is an explosive scorer, although probably undersized for the NBA, and Patrick Ewing Jr. is an amazing athlete who should be able to contribute as a role player on an NBA team.

 

Charlotte Bobcats (DJ Augustin, Alexis Ajinca)

The Charlotte Bobcats, as I said in my pre-draft coverage, were actually in a pretty good position before the draft started. Their pick of DJ Augustin at 9 wasn't too bad- there were better players on the board, but Augustin was the best true point guard other than Rose. The problem? The Bobcats already have a point guard, Raymond Felton, who I don't think has ever really been given the chance to prove that he can run a team. I have heard, however, that the Bobcats envision Felton as an explosive scorer off the bench who can come in at either guard spot and change the tempo of the game. So you have Augustin and Jason Richardson starting at the two guard spots, with Felton off the bench. If that's the plan, that sounds like a team that wants to use what they have and win now. So with the 20th pick, you would assume that they take one of the several ready-to-play big men, right? Instead, they go with gigantic Frenchman Alexis Ajinca, who measures out at 7 feet tall with a 7'8 wingspan. and averaged 5 points per game last season in whichever pro league he played in. I forget which analyst said this (I don't want to take credit), but has anyone who has ever made it into the NBA averaged less than 5 points per game at any level? His physical gifts are amazing, and the Bobcats weren't the only team looking at him in the mid-first round, but why take a player who is such a long-term project when you're shaping your roster to compete this year? Now the Bobcats will most likely miss the playoffs again, be in the lottery again next year, and unless they hit the jackpot like Chicago did this year, be right back where they started.

While I am clearly not a fan of their draft strategy, this situation can still be salvaged. Along with Gerald Wallace potentially headed out of Charlotte, it sounds like Felton is being shopped as well. If the Bobcats can swing a deal, either for long-term prospects or short-term rewards, their outlook will at least be clearer. It just frustrates me when teams put themselves in no-mans land and don't have a clear direction.      

 

Golden State Warriors (Anthony Randolph, Richard Hendrix)

The Warriors got what looked like a value pick on the surface with LSU forward Anthony Randolph at the 14 spot. But the problem is that they drafted his exact clone, Brandon Wright, last year, when they got him in a trade for Golden State fan favorite Jason Richardson. They both do all the same things, and I'm not sure that they'll ever be able to be on the floor at the same time. Also, there's the problem of Don Nelson not only disliking young players in general and not giving them playing time, but player development isn't exactly his strong suit either. With the team in limbo, wasting this pick was not an option. If the Warriors wanted a raw player, they should have at least picked someone like Kosta Koufos or Donte Greene, both of which fit the Golden State system currently in place and don't duplicate a player already on the roster. Randolph certainly has potential, but it seems a bit redundant for the Warriors, and he wasn't even the best player still on the board.

 

 

The Ugly- While I'm still not sure if this trade helps or hurts either team more or less than the other (I've started to lean slightly in one direction), but only the Grizzlies and Timberwolves could have given us a trade of two top-5 players that didn't even get announced until 2 in the morning. Also, two teams who made good picks on draft day find themselves on this list as well.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves (Kevin Love)

I'm starting to think that the T-Wolves came out on top of this deal. While OJ Mayo is a great player, the Wolves already have so many players like him, such as Rashad McCants and Kirk Snyder (although Mayo is better than both of them). The bigger thing for me is that I've started to grow on Kevin Love a lot more. I've always said that if you can make an open jumper, you can make it in the NBA. Love can do that all the way out to the NBA 3-point line. But seeing Love at the draft is what really put in perspective how much work he's been putting in since the season ended- he looks like a different person, having easily lost 15-20 pounds. The work ethic is there, and he won't get outhustled by anyone during a game. That said, a frontline of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love isn't going to stop anyone, as neither of them will be a shot-blocking presence. The Wolves better hope they can score a lot of points, because that defense isn't going to get it done.

Minnesota also picked up one of my personal favorite players, Mike Miller, in the deal. He is always in the conversation for best pure shooter in the league, and he is bigger and more physical than people ever give him credit for (averaging over 7 rebounds per game last year). He deserves to be on a contending team, and probably will be moved before the end of the season, but for now he'll have a chance to start and put up good numbers on a young, bad team. Like Love and Jefferson, he's relatively slow for his position and not a good defender, causing more problems on defense. There are plenty of reasons to trash the trade (defensive problems, giving up Mayo, taking on Brian Cardinal's awful contract despite getting rid of Marko Jaric's), but I think the pros outweigh the cons here, and given that the Wolves loved Kevin Love, they had to make the move.

 

Memphis Grizzlies (OJ Mayo, Darrell Arthur)

At first I liked this draft more for the Grizzlies than I did for the T-Wolves. They got the best rookie in the deal in Mayo, and even though they lost a good power forward in Love, they got a steal in Arthur to offset the loss. But the Grizzlies gave up the best player (currently) in the deal, in Mike Miller, didn't save any money, and didn't get anything but Mayo in return. That isn't to say the acquisition of Mayo isn't a good one. I see Mayo as a complimentary player, one who can fill a stat sheet and do the dirty work and play off of a higher-scoring star. The Grizzlies have that player in Rudy Gay, and if Mayo can develop into his wingman, they have the makings of a good tandem. Plus, getting Darrell Arthur late in the first (after a series of smaller trades) fills the hole at power forward that they thought they had filled with Love. It is clear that the Grizzlies, headed by former Phoenix assistant Marc Iavaroni, want to score a lot of points and do it quickly. Arthur is that type of power forward- fast and athletic, a good midrange shooter and all-around offensive weapon. The main problem is that they now have too many guards. Not counting Marko Jaric, who will just sit on the bench and take up cap space, the Grizzlies have three young point guards who have been first round picks in the past three years, and OJ Mayo now as well. It seems like they want Mayo at the 2 and Gay at the 3, but that still leaves too many point guards. Before the initial stage of their rebuilding process is complete, they need to get rid of at least one of these point guards and get a true big man in return. For now, their center is Darko Milicic, but it's debatable if he'll ever be a legitimate player in the league. They also have Marc Gasol (Pau's brother) coming over this year, and by all accounts he's a bigger and stronger version of Pau, but without any of his brother's offensive skills. My guess is that Kyle Lowry is the guy that gets traded- he and Conley are both small point guards, and they can't really ever be on the floor together. Crittendon is a big point who can play the 2 at times, and a 3-guard rotation of Conley, Mayo and Crittendon is definitely a start.

The biggest issue with having an extra point guard is that they're not the only team looking to get rid of a point guard, and there just aren't that many big men to be had by way of trade these days.

 

Chicago Bulls (Derrick Rose)

OK, so maybe it's a little harsh to put the Bulls in this list. They did draft the right player at #1, hometown hero Derrick Rose, who should make an immediate impact as well as lead the team into a new, winning era. So what's the problem? The problem, to me, is that the Bulls still have way too many players, and haven't really looked too interested in moving any of them. It also doesn't inspire confidence that the Bulls have had lots of assets for years now, and haven't pulled the trigger on deals that could have gotten them Pau Gasol or Kevin Garnett, among others. I recently read a few articles quoting Bulls officials as saying that they are happy with their current roster. Obviously some of this is just for PR purposes, as they don't want to trash anyone in the media before they know who they're keeping and who is getting traded, but at the same time, it doesn't seem like they've been too active in their search of a trade. Should they clear up their backcourt mess, the Bulls definitely get off of "The Ugly" list, but for now I think they're in a bad situation.

I really think this is something to keep an eye on, as there really don't seem to be many trade options available, so I will have a more extended write-up on this situation in the near future.

 

New York Knicks (Danilo Galinari)

I actually liked this pick for the Knicks- they have too many needs to try and find one player who will fix everything right away, and Galinari was definitely one of the best players on the board at #6. I put the Knicks in "the Ugly" category because of their ridiculous, obnoxious fans. I understand that they don't know who Galinari is- I follow basketball as closely as anyone, and I still don't know all that much about him. But clearly he's a good player, and the new front office made this decision in the best interest of the team. So why, when his name is called, would you loudly boo him? He's a young kid, and the last thing he wants or needs is to be jeered by the fans who he's going to be playing in front of for the next few years. And if he turns out to be a good player, and the team is looking to resign him somewhere down the line, wouldn't those fans have an impact on him that might make him look at other teams? Maybe I'm looking too far into this, and I know that the Knicks fans would have booed just about anyone who got picked there, but I thought it was a ridiculous thing to do on their part and thought it was worth mentioning.

While we're on the subject of the Knicks, they need to take advantage of all the point guards on the market right now. It sounds like they want Galinari to be their power forward of the future, which would take too many of David Lee's minutes. Since Lee also happens to be their best trade asset, and his stock really can't get much higher than it is right now, the Knicks should really consider trying to move Lee (and maybe a bad contract or two) for a true point guard, and whatever other cost-effective assets they can collect in the process.

 

 

The Rest- This draft was surprisingly low-key aside from the moves listed above. Here is a quick run-down of all the other teams and their draft picks, with a few quick thoughts on each.

 

Los Angeles Clippers (Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, Mike Taylor)

The Clippers were targeting Gordon all along, even considering trading up to get him, so getting him at 7 was a good pickup for them. He has the potential to develop into a high-volume scorer and a plus defender. He can't play point guard, so they still need to find a true point. D-League star Mike Taylor might help a little, and his athleticism will make him a fan-favorite, but he isn't the answer if they want to have a playoff caliber team in the near future. I also liked the pickup of DeAndre Jordan in the 2nd round. Yes, he has a while to go, but I think he has a better chance of playing in the NBA, and making an impact within the next 3 years, than most of the players who are staying overseas (for instance, Serge Ibaka, who the Sonics picked). Also, to the casual fan, it makes more marketing sense to have a player in the D-League who you can keep tabs on than stashing a player in a league overseas that the average fan has never heard of and has no way of monitoring.

Like I said, the Clippers are in serious need of a live body at point guard, and the teams who are trying to trade a guard (Bulls, Grizzlies) should be trying to find out what the Clippers could give them.

 

Milwaukee Bucks (Joe Alexander, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute)

Seems like the Bucks really felt they needed help at small forward. After trading Yi for Richard Jefferson, who should be more productive now that he's basically out of the public eye, they drafted Joe Alexander. I love the pick of Alexander, as he will be able to play both the 3 and the 4 right away as an energy player off the bench. Down the road, I think he can really develop into a star, but there's no reason to force him into a starting role right away when he still has so much to learn about the game. Like I said before the draft, the trade for Jefferson means the Bucks are going to try to at least make a playoff run right away, and if they can stay healthy they might be able to do it. Other than a small free agent acquisition (probably a combo guard who can score off the bench), their roster is set for the coming year.

 

Phoenix Suns (Robin Lopez, Goran Dragic)

I really liked the pick of Robin Lopez for the Suns. Assuming Shaq and Amare Stoudamire are healthy, he'll be the first big man off the bench and will do all the dirty work for the offensive-minded team. The pick of Lopez, a true 7-footer, signifies the continued change in philosophy for the Suns, who in the past would only play one true big (Stoudamire) at a time, but now look like they will have 2 on the floor at all times. Lopez will be a great defensive player right away, and will also be an immediate fan-favorite. Assuming Shaq misses a good chunk of games, almost guaranteed to happen, Lopez will be able to play big minutes alongside Amare as well. I don't really know about Dragic, who was traded for Oregon's Malik Hairson (the Suns original 2nd-round pick) on draft day, but it sounds like he's the chosen long-term replacement for Nash. I think Hairston would have been a better pick, as he's sort of a Raja Bell-type player who would have been able to play the 2/3 spots, play good defense and hit open shots, and be able to contribute immediately.

The Suns still need to figure out what they're doing with Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw. They are both clearly Mike D'Antoni players who don't fit into the new Suns philosophy, and keeping them in limbo doesn't help anyone. Diaw is more likely to stay, and become the teams starting 3, but Barbosa doesn't see, to have a role here anymore and there should be plenty of teams who have interest in him. Look for a trade within the next week or two.

 

Philadelphia 76ers (Marreese Speights)

I also liked this pick by the 76ers. They overachieved as a team last year, but really need a true low-post scorer to continue the growth of the team. The Sixers are a perfect fit for Speights, because he will be protected on defense by defensive standout Sam Dalembert (one of my personal favorites), and the Sixers have enough depth that Speights won't be forced into bigger minutes than he's capable of. That said, Speights should be the starter at power forward right away, as the Sixers continue to look towards the future while still trying to win today. Also remember that the Sixers have the most money to spend of any team this offseason. They could go several directions with their cap space, and whatever they do might dramatically change their team's outlook for this year and the future.

 

Washington Wizards (JaVale McGee)

Maybe this wasn't the best pick for the Wizards, as McGee is extremely young and raw (look at his videos- he looks like he's still in high school). That said, there's no questioning his talent and his potential to grow into a legitimate starting center. The Wizards don't NEED anything right now, especially not that they could get at the 18th pick in the draft. Their 8-9 man rotation is set for the next year or two (assuming that they can resign Arenas and Jamison), so anyone they picked this year, with the exception maybe of someone like Roy Hibbert or Robin Lopez, both who were off the board, wouldn't have a chance of being a part of the rotation immediately. So why not take a chance on a boom-or-bust prospect who is a few years away, like McGee. He's already a true 7-footer with an absurd 7'6 wingspan, and he definitely has talent. If his body matures and he turns into a good player, the Wizards look great. If not, there aren't too many other players drafted later that would have had an impact anyway, so the losses are minimal.

There is one player who was available who I would have liked to see the Wizards pick, and that is NC State's JJ Hickson- a raw, aggressive big man who could have stepped in immediately and thrown some bodies around and added some physicality to the Wizards frontline. He's just as young as McGee, however, and I think that McGee will be a better player when all is said and done. Overall, I still liked the thinking from the Wizards, and it will be a few years before we can really grade the pick.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers (JJ Hickson)

Of course the Cavs end up with the player I wanted the Wizards to take. Like I said, Hickson is a big body who will play aggressively, and be an energetic force off the bench. With the Cavs likely to lose Anderson Varejau, Hickson should be able to fill that role right away. But while other teams, specifically the Nets, made moves to try to entice LeBron in the summer of 2010, the Cavs once again did nothing to shake up a team that will always get into the playoffs and always hope that LeBron can do enough on his own to take them to the Finals. Their assets are fairly limited, and Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract will only get more attractive to other teams as the year goes on, but I think the Cavs sat on their hands again and will regret it when LeBron is a free agent.

 

Orlando Magic (Courtney Lee)

The Magic are another team that was content to sit back and make their pick, when in my opinion they could have done more. Picking at 22, the Magic needed an athletic shooting guard and a true power forward who could score down low. The falling Darrell Arthur would have been a great fit here, as he could be added to the Rashard Lewis-Hedo Turkoglu forward rotation, and be protected down low by Dwight Howard. Given how far Chris Douglas-Roberts, the next best shooting guard after Lee, fell on draft night, I think the Magic could have gotten a little more creative and filled both their needs, either getting Arthur and then trading for an early second round pick to get Lee or CDR. At the end of the day, they got the man they wanted in Lee, who will be a really good fit in Orlando, but once again I think they could have done more. 

Also, look out for the JJ Redick situation. The Magic drafted him higher than he should have been taken a few years ago, and he hasn't seen the court since. I'm not convinced that he can be an NBA-caliber player, but he certainly thinks he is, and has been asking for a trade for a while. I don't see any reason why the Magic would keep him, so if they can find a team that values Redick and would be willing to give an asset up to get him, they should jump on the deal.

 

Utah Jazz (Kosta Koufos, Ante Tomic)

No surprise that the Jazz grabbed Koufos, who most expected to go in the mid-teens but fell to the Jazz here. They were looking for the best big man available, and Koufos resembles current Jazz player Mehmet Okur, so they know that he will work in their system. As a true 7-footer, he will be able to be their backup center immediately. Tomic was one of the hottest international names coming into the draft, but the Jazz were able to get him with their 2nd round pick. As usual, he will take a few years to come over. The Jazz don't usually use international players coming from overseas, so it should be interesting how this one works out.

 

Houston Rockets (Donte Greene, Joey Dorsey)

The Rockets did a good job sticking to their current model by adding a shooter (Greene) and an undersized power player (Dorsey). Both will likely see time as role players right away, although Greene could see his role expand over the course of the season and in the future. This also shows that the Rockets are as committed as ever to their pairing of Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, hoping that they can get the two of them healthy for the playoffs and contend for the title. Greene is a good fit because he can space the floor, and with versatile players like McGrady and Shane Battier on the floor, doesn't really need to have a true position. He'll be out there to space the floor offensively with his shooting, rebound on both ends, and run the floor. This plays to all his strengths, putting him in a position to succeed immediately. I heard that the Rockets loved Dorsey and the attitude and power that he brings. He'll technically be a bit undersized for power forward, and definitely for center, but Dorsey loves hearing critics talking about his limitations and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He has been billed as the second coming of Ben Wallace, and he could definitely have that kind of impact. On the court he doesn't think there's anything he can't do, and the Rockets could really use that type of attitude on what is otherwise a pretty soft team. I definitely think he will get a chance to show what he can do.  

 

San Antonio Spurs (George Hill, Malik Hairston, James Gist)

You have to love the Spurs. After literally nobody talked about him as a first round pick, the Spurs stepped up and drafted combo guard George Hill. Do they even bother scouting, or did they just like the idea of throwing everyone else a curveball? That said, Hill is a good prospect, and since the Spurs know that nobody can question their drafting methods, they went ahead and got the player that they wanted. I actually laughed out loud when they made their pick. Hill is very athletic and I'm assuming that he'll back up Tony Parker, even though he isn't really a true point guard and Popovich never goes with 2 small guards in the backcourt at the same time. I'm not the only one a little puzzled by this pick. They also got one of my sleepers, Oregon swingman Malik Hairston. Hairston is a very solid all-around player who doesn't do anything great but does everything well. He reminds me of Michael Finley, and will probably be groomed in Finley's role. James Gist is a great athlete who is probably undersized to play the post in the NBA, but can produce some highlight reel plays if he ever gets on the court.

 

Detroit Pistons (Walter Sharpe, Trent Plaisted, Deron Washington)

Apparently the Pistons had asked everyone who worked out for them if they would be receptive to playing overseas for a year or two before coming into the NBA. All three of these players had said that they would, which played a large factor in their getting drafted by the Pistons. Sharpe is a "tools" guy who has never really done much in his collegiate career, but is big, fast, and a good shooter who could develop into a very good player. Plaisted is a little undersized to play center, not having the wingspan or athleticism of other top prospects, and probably won't make it to the league.

I had the pleasure of watching Deron Washington for the past three years at Virginia Tech, and have always maintained that he could make it as an NBA player. He is way too skinny to play right now, and the new flopping fines will definitely hurt him as his playing style is based on drawing charges and generally being a pest defensively, but he is an amazing athlete who I think could be a 2/3 defensive stopper. He really reminds me of Bruce Bowen, someone who is very limited in some aspects of the game, but his energy on defense will give him a place in the league. I love that the Pistons are giving him a chance, and he will definitely become a fan favorite the second he touches an NBA floor. While overseas, he needs to continue to work (hard) on his shooting as well as filling out his body. There's no reason he can't make it onto an NBA team, and I think the Pistons will definitely give him every chance to do it.

 

Boston Celtics (JR Giddens, Bill Walker)

The defending champs didn't really have any needs coming into the draft, so instead they went with two talented players who have each had off the court issues, and hope that their strong veteran presence can set these guys straight. Giddens is someone who I had my eye on before the draft- in terms of talent, there isn't much that he can't do, but he's never been too keen on playing defense and putting all of his tools together. If he gets his act together, the Celtics have a steal. If not, they send him to the D-League and forget about it. How great it is to be the champs. 

A few teams, including the Hawks, Nuggets, Mavericks and Hornets, basically sat this draft out. For the Hawks and Mavs, their first round picks were already spent on high profile trades. The Nuggets and Hornets traded their picks for cash before the draft in order to save money. I've always wondered why teams do this before the draft actually starts, as opposed to making their pick and then trying to essentially "sell" the pick, or just getting rid of it before their pick if there isn't anyone appealing on the board. Why not just stick around, see if anyone that your scouts liked is falling down the board, and then make your decision. The scouts for every team are working year-round regardless of what picks the team has, they should at least entertain the possibility of making a pick. In my opinion, the Hornets made a mistake by doing this. Chris Douglas-Roberts, eventually taken by the Nets, would have been a great fit for the Hornets and could have probably started for them right away. I understand that they were afraid of the guaranteed first-round contract, but they could have traded their late first-rounder for an early second when they saw that CDR was falling, and then grabbed him there. 

 

Anyway, for those of you who have made it this far, thanks for reading. As always, I would love any kinds of feedback and am interested to hear reviews, good or bad. And if you like it, go ahead and spread the word.