Basketball, more than any other sport, allows teams a faster turnaround between seasons- just ask the Celtics. Because fewer players contribute to each team than in other professional sports, the addition or subtraction of just one or two players can completely change a team's makeup and competitiveness. Every year, the draft and free agency offer new hope to teams that underperformed the past season, or the chance to load up for a run at the championship for teams that just missed out in the playoffs.
This off-season was supposed to be a relatively quiet one, but as soon as the free agency period began on July 9, it has been anything but that. Here's my take on some of the biggest moves so far, and what they mean for the future of those teams.
Philadelphia 76ers- Elton Brand
The 76ers have made easily the biggest splash in free agency by landing power forward Elton Brand, who surprised everyone by opting out of his contract right before the deadline. Then, after Baron Davis signed with the Clippers (more on that in a second) and seemingly had an agreement for Brand to resign so they could play together, Brand surprisingly bolted for Philly. At the end of the day, Brand could get more money (but not more guaranteed years) from the Sixers, but more importantly, Brand would be able to be most competitive with the Sixers. Philadelphia has an exciting, young core, and surprisingly made the playoffs (even beating the Pistons twice in the first round) last season. They were set at every position except for power forward, and with Brand looking like he would re-sign with the Clippers, the Sixers had set their sights on Atlanta's restricted free agent Josh Smith.
Now, with Brand in the fold, the Sixers look to be a solid playoff team right away, and a legitimate title contender as soon as next year. The Sixers add Brand to a core that includes veteran floor general Andre Miller, budding superstar swingman Andre Iguodala, and defensive specialist Samuel Dalembert. They also have young, talented players who exceeded expectations such as speedy guard Louis Williams, athletic forward Thaddeus Young, who played out of position at the 4 last season, big man Jason Smith and this year's first round pick, Marreese Speights. Iguodala spent last season as the go-to guy for Philly, but he's really best suited as a complimentary player, someone who helps his team win by filling the stat sheet and doing all the little things. Iguodala can play either guard position as well as small forward, bring the ball up the floor and start the offense, finish on the break, and most importantly, lock down the best player on the other team. With Brand now starring as the go-to guy, Iguodala will be in position to have his best season as a pro.
The best thing about this move for the Sixers is that they don't have to change a thing about their team- their only need was a power forward, and they were able to pick up one of the league's best in Brand without losing any of their players (other than Rodney Carney, who was traded for cap space). Brand can step in to his natural position on a team that fits all of his strengths. Defensively, the front line of Young, Brand and Dalembert will be one of the best in the league, as Philly will still try to make their living on the defensive end to ignite the fast-break. But this year, when their running game slows down, they will have Brand, a proven 20+ point per game scorer, to score in the post and draw double teams to open up the rest of the half-court offense. Their biggest remaining need is a shooter to help space the floor, but they should be able to pick up a knockdown shooter for a relatively cheap price. Although I feel bad for the Clippers, who came so close to the best pairing of players they've ever had, I love the move by Philadelphia and am really looking forward to the seeing the success of a well-built team.
Los Angeles Clippers- Baron Davis, Marcus Camby
The Clippers have been one of the other biggest players in free agency after getting burned by Brand, recovering with the signing of superstar point guard Baron Davis and the "trade" for Marcus Camby.
The book on Davis is pretty simple. When healthy, he is simply one of the best players in the league, and in that elite class of players who can singlehandedly control a game. He showcased this ability in the 2006 playoffs, when the red-hot Warriors upset the best team in the league, the Mavericks, in the first round of the playoffs. With all the wear and tear on his body, along with the thick beard that has become his trademark, it is easy to forget that Baron is still only 29 years old, and while he has had his share of injuries over his career, the missed time takes considerable mileage off of his body. When he is on his game, there really isn't much Baron can't do on the court, offensively or defensively. It's hard to really describe what Baron does to make him so dominant, but his creativity as well as his flair for the dramatic really set him apart from others. Pairing Baron with Elton Brand would have been the best collection of talent the Clippers have ever had, and probably would have put them in the same class as Western Conference powers such as Utah and Houston.
Now, with Brand out of the picture, the Clippers decided against trying to sign restricted free agents Josh Smith or Emeka Okafor, and instead stole center Marcus Camby from the Nuggets for a future second round pick (better known as "nothing"). Camby has been one of my favorite players ever since he burst onto the national scene with the Knicks, replacing the injured Patrick Ewing on their run to the Finals. Since then, Camby has been one of the league's best defensive forces- a phenomenal rebounder and arguably the best shot blocker in the league. His frail build makes him prone to injuries, but he has played more games the last 2 seasons than he ever had for 2 consecutive seasons. Either this means he's due for an injury or he's simply learned how to take care of himself a little better. He doesn't offer much offensively- he has a streaky midrange jumper that he has a tendency to shoot a little too often- but he is a good finisher, runs the floor very well and has the ability to take his man off the dribble if they're not paying close enough attention to him.
The Clippers already have a very good center in Chris Kaman, a true 7 footer who can score in a variety of ways and is a good rebounder, but isn't a great defensive player. Camby (who is athletic enough to play the 4) and Kaman will be great compliments to each other in one of the biggest frontlines in the league, and would fill out a Clippers roster that now has Davis at the point, Cuttino Mobely and rookie Eric Gordon at shooting guard, and the athletic Al Thorton at small forward. With the frontcourt of Camby and Kaman protecting the rim, and the aggressive backcourt of Davis, Gordon and Mobely, the Clippers have the potential to be a very good defensive team, and will try to use their defense and control of the boards to fuel a running game, where Davis, Gordon and Thorton will excel. I think that this move, along with some smaller moves to fill out their currently thin roster, will make the Clippers playoff contenders this season.
One more important note- while it seems risky to pair two expensive, injury-prone players in Camby and Davis, it needs to be mentioned that Camby's contract comes off the books in 2010, the much-anticipated summer where several superstars will be free agents. If the Clippers can show improvement over these next two years, they could definitely be in the running to land a high-impact player that summer.
How does the Camby move affect other teams? For one, it lets the Hawks and Bobcats breathe a little easier, as the Clippers were the last realistic threat to try and sign Josh Smith (Hawks) or Emeka Okafor (Bobcats). Now, no other team has the money available to sign these restricted free agents to an expensive offer that they might not be inclined to match. I find it interesting that neither of these teams have proactively tried to resign their players, taking a wait-and-see approach. The Hawks have publicly stated that they want to keep Josh Smith at all costs, and I'd expect them to wrap up a reasonable deal with him shortly. However, the Bobcats have been much more passive with Okafor, almost seeming like they wanted him to sign an offer sheet somewhere else, so that they could either match the offer or work a sign-and-trade. Okafor is an interesting player to me. After a few years in the league, it is clear that while he is a very good defensive player, he isn't a true center and really isn't much of an offensive threat. The Bobcats drafted him to be the face of their franchise, but it's a difficult situation because any team that boasts Okafor as their best player probably won't ever be very good- he's best suited as a complimentary player who can do the dirty work defensively and on the boards, and contribute 10-15 points a game on garbage buckets and a few plays run for him offensively. I get the feeling that Okafor isn't too interested in staying with the Bobcats for the rest of his career, and it would seem that the Bobcats want to keep Okafor, but don't want to pay him franchise-player money. I think a trade would make the most sense for both parties.
The other team that this trade (obviously) affects is the Denver Nuggets. While Camby did have a large salary (which actually costs twice as much to the Nuggets because they have to pay the luxury tax) and is getting older, it's amazing that they literally gave him away and got nothing in return. As I already said, Camby is a dominant defensive player, and made up for the gambling style of Iverson and the generally indifferent defensive play of Carmelo. He didn't ask for the ball on offense, and ran the floor to keep up with the high-octane attack of the Nuggets. This leaves the Nuggets with only two players who can really play center- Nene, who is just coming back from beating testicular cancer and has always been an injury risk, and Steven Hunter, who really isn't a NBA-caliber starter. Kenyon Martin is their only other post player besides those two, and he has a long history of injuries as well. The trade does give the Nuggets a $10 million trade exception, which means they can take back more salary than they give away in a trade, but taking back a big salary in a trade would defeat the point of giving Camby away in the first place. In my opinion, this is public relations nightmare for the Nuggets, and leaves them with two options: 1) They play this season out with their current roster (and maybe some smaller signings), basically saying that the playoffs would be exceeding expectations, waiting for Iverson's contract to run out at the end of the season, and rebuilding around Carmelo from there; or 2) they make another big move this summer, either trading Iverson and his expiring contract, or trading Carmelo for a ton of assets. Honestly, I'm not sure what they do. If they trade Carmelo and then let Iverson's contract expire, they are essentially starting from scratch, which doesn't make much sense. But at the same time, staying with their current roster (option 1) means that they will be going from a 50-win team to a team scraping to make the playoffs, and admitting that the Iverson trade was a mistake. This was a bad move for the Nuggets, and as much as I like to see a team shake things up, I don't think that this move made much sense at all.
Washington Wizards- Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison
While the re-signing of Arenas and Jamison was sort of a non-move by the Wizards, it's still worth noting, as this free agency period could have been a major turning point for the Wizards franchise. They had a big decision to make, choosing to keep Jamison and Arenas (basically a package deal), and keep the core of a team that has been exciting, but always had injury problems when the postseason rolled around. They could have chosen to go in the complete opposite direction, losing their captain (Jamison) and most popular player (Arenas), choosing to use the saved money to sign a big free agent, like Brand or Baron Davis, to pair with Caron Butler. While the latter seems to be the option that most of the media outside of Washington would have liked to see, I think that the Wizards did the right thing by keeping their own players. Arenas has more value in DC than anywhere else, as he is one of the most popular athletes ever in the Washington area, and Jamison is the captain and leader of a young and reckless team.
So can the Wizards contend with this core group? I think the answer is yes. When healthy, the "Big 3" of Arenas, Butler and Jamison is among the most talented trios in the league (try finding one that matches up outside of Boston or LA). The team really grew, on both sides of the ball, when Arenas was injured last season. The key here is for Arenas to buy into the team concept, and defer to Butler and Jamison when necessary. That said, it's easy to forget that Arenas is one of the most prolific scorers in the league, as well as an amazingly dangerous weapon when the clock is winding down. But everyone knows that the Wizards can score points. To really contend for a championship, which Washington believes they can, the Wizards need to commit themselves to the defense. They have the ability to be a good defensive team, as does just about every team in the league, the question is if they can put in the effort on a nightly basis. I thought the Cleveland series, even though the lost, was a huge step for the franchise, as they really got tough with the Cavs, and came together as a team in their short-handed attempt to take down LeBron and the Cavs.
Golden State Warriors- Corey Maggette
My biggest pet peeve for NBA teams is treading water, or staying in no-mans land, by making moves that don't significantly improve the current team and also don't help the team rebuild in the long term. Unfortunately, one of the most exciting teams in the NBA for the past 2 years, the Warriors, are doing just that. With a ton of money to spend now that Baron Davis is off the books, the Warriors felt that they needed to spend it somewhere, and fast (despite wasting a $10 million trade exception that expired on July 1 after trading away Jason Richardson during last year's draft). With former Clipper Corey Maggette the best remaining unrestricted free agent on the market, the Warriors offered him a contract a few million over the mid-level exception. This will keep the Warriors as an exciting, high-scoring team, but it definitely doesn't make them a dramatically better team right now, and Maggette isn't young enough to be considered a major piece of a rebuilding plan. For next season, a starting line-up of Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Maggette, Al Harrington (or Brandan Wright) and Andris Biedrins with lots of young talent coming off the bench is good enough to win 40 to 45 games, which would put them right on the playoff bubble again, and of course, have them picking in the late lottery again. And probably the year after that. And so on.
Which brings me back to my pet peeve- barring any significant change, or a run of luck like they had in 2006, the Warriors will not be a significant contender in the near future, and will not be a bad enough team (unless injury strikes) to land a top draft pick. It's a big problem in the NBA, one that several teams can't seem to figure out. Will Maggette keep the Warriors as an exciting and competitive team? Absolutely. But to become championship contenders, the Warriors need to make a major trade that puts them in contention immediately, or a move that lands them young players, high draft picks and cap space, and have Ellis, Biedrins, Wright and Anthony Randolph lead a rebuilding movement that puts them in a position to win big 2-3 years from now.
New Orleans Hornets- James Posey
The most recent move probably won’t get as much fanfare as the other big free agent signings, but the Hornets signing James Posey is a big move for a franchise with legitimate championship aspirations. Posey, as I've written before in this space, is simply a winner. He has won 2 championships (with 2 different teams) in the past 3 years and has distinguished himself as someone that you want on your team if you're going to contend for the championship. An unrestricted free agent, Posey was a hot commodity, and while he's probably getting paid more than he should, he will definitely help the Hornets in their quest to win a championship. Posey is a great defensive player- he's not an outstanding man-to-man defender, but he is a great team defender who plays within the scheme and elevates the play of everyone on that side of the ball when he's in the game. Offensively he doesn't offer much besides his clutch 3-point shooting, but he isn't afraid of taking a big shot and makes smart decisions. The problems with Posey getting 4 guaranteed years is that he is already 31 years old, and will be getting paid as much this upcoming season as he will be when he's 35. The Hornets saved money by trading their draft pick this season, and have definitely put all of their eggs in one basket with this move.
Posey probably won't start for the Hornets- their starting 5 of Chris Paul, Morris Peterson, Peja Stojakovic, David West and Tyson Chandler is already set in stone, so Posey will fill his familiar role of 6th man. He will play the 2, 3 and 4 spots for the Hornets, taking on the task of guarding the opponents best perimeter player when he's in the game, and aggressively running the floor, knowing that Paul will reward him on the break. His value will only increase as the year goes on, and his impact on playoff games can't be quantified by numbers. Ask anyone on the Celtics- they wouldn't have won the championship without him. I think that the Hornets will be very happy with this addition, and it definitely puts them on the short list of championship contenders this upcoming season.
For everyone who checks this space on a regular basis, I apologize for the delay since my last post. With so many changes every day, I wanted to find a good breaking point before offering my opinions on moves that had actually happened. I will be coming back shortly with some speculation on more things to look for as the offseason continues, as well as some comments on the Summer Leagues that have be going on in Orlando and Las Vegas. As always, thanks for reading.
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