The Champs

Truly an amazing season for the Celtics. They were the best team in the league since the first week of the season, and even though they struggled a little at the beginning of the playoffs, they proved how dominant they were against the West's best team in the Lakers. Because of the way the Celtics turned their fortunes around- trading a ton of assets for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, two proven stars- I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one team try to pull off something similar this off-season. Also, since the Celtics won with such a dominant defense, I'd also expect several teams to really try and commit themselves on the defensive end over the summer. The NBA, like the NFL, is a copycat league, and when one team proves they can win a certain way, other teams are bound to follow. 

As for the "Big 3" that Boston put together, I think this season and championship really solidifies the legacies of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, who were all All-Stars many times over but had never even reached the NBA Finals before this year. 

Ray Allen put his name in the short list of the best shooters of all time. He already held the single season record for most 3 pointers made, as well as being second on the all-time list, and his 22 3's in the Finals was a Finals record. It also showed that while he could never win a championship if he was the team's best player, that he was capable of carrying a team for stretches, as he did for this Celtics team, as well as being a vital cog in a championship team. 

Kevin Garnett has his place in history as one of the most dominant big men of all time, especially on the defensive end. Although his record of getting it done in the postseason still isn't phenomenal- there were times throughout the playoffs where the Celtics really needed more from KG- his 26 points and 14 rebounds in the Game 6 clincher really went a long way in quieting those critics. But more importantly, it was because of Garnett that the Celtics were the best team in the league in the regular season. He changed the culture in Boston, adding an intimidation factor as well as a tremendous defensive presence that really made them a force to be reckoned with.

Finally, Paul Pierce firmly added his name as one of the greatest Celtics of all time. Already high up statistically for most of the franchise's records, Pierce put together one of the most remarkable playoff runs in Celtics history. Boston is the only place that Pierce has ever played, and he takes great pride in being a Boston Celtic. In this era of the NBA, it is extremely rare for any player, let alone a star player, to be on one team his entire career. Besides Pierce, the only players that I can think of that have played for the same team in their career (minimum of 8 years) are Kobe with the Lakers, and Tim Duncan on the Spurs. KG fell into that category before this season, and there are a handful of players in the 5-6 year range, but to do it for as long as Pierce has is really hard to do. It was a tremendous accomplishment for Pierce, and I know that there's nobody happier than him right now.

Can they do it again next year? Before the inevitable off-season shakeup, my best guess is that the Celtics will at least make it back to the Finals next season. The Big 3 probably has one, maybe 2 good years left in them, and their other 2 starters, Rondo and Perkins, are only going to get better. But it is very likely that they lose the invaluable James Posey, and they probably won't have PJ Brown or Sam Cassell back either. That said, I can't see their win total dropping too far below 60, if at all, and certainly see them as the team to beat right now.

Games 5/6

And here we go, back to Boston. The Lakers broke out to another big lead early in the game, only to watch Paul Pierce and the Celtics even it up by halftime. From there, we were treated to some high-intensity, although sloppy, basketball, and the Lakers had just enough to hold off the Celtics for at least one more game. Here are some notes that I took, as well as some thoughts leading up to Game 6 in Boston tomorrow night.

Lamar Odom & Pau Gasol, revisited

The highly criticized duo of Odom and Gasol certainly weren’t flashy, and they certainly don’t inspire confidence all the time, but the two of them simply got it done in Game 5. Both had almost 20 points (Odom 20, Gasol 19) and 10+ rebounds, and for the first time, both looked aggressive playing down low. Even though Kobe led the Lakers in scoring with 25, the Lakers wouldn’t have made it to Game 6 without Odom and Gasol. Gasol looked much more comfortable down low without the big body of Kendrick Perkins to worry about, getting Kevin Garnett into early foul trouble and consistently drawing attention down low the rest of the game. Odom was able to simplify things on offense, taking what the defense was giving him, both inside and out- several times he was able to sneak open under the basket for easy lay-ins.

Although it’s rare to see from them, Odom and Gasol dug in and played tough, physical games on both ends of the floor. They let up far fewer offensive rebounds than the first few games of the series, something the Celtics had been thriving on, and Odom finally showed some emotion, getting in the face of James Posey late in the 4^th.  It’s interesting, but it seems that they really feed off of each other- either they both are playing well, or neither is.

I said it before Game 5, and their performance in that game only solidified it- the Lakers need strong efforts from both Odom and Gasol if they want to win. They delivered on their home court, now let’s see if they can do it on the road.

The Lakers version of Smallball

I loved the move that Jackson made, going with a 2-point guard lineup of Jordan Farmar and Derek Fisher down the stretch, with Kobe sliding over the 3. I’ve said several times that Farmar has played very well this series, and generally been the most competent member of the Lakers problematic bench. This alignment works because Farmar has such great speed, especially against Eddie House and Sam Cassell, and he used it several times to get to the basket. Defensively, Fisher is strong enough to guard shooting guards, and he’s done a good job on Ray Allen the past few games. Last season, when he was on the Jazz, Fisher actually started most of the season as their shooting guard (alongside Deron Williams), so he has experience in this role. As long as the Celtics continue to use a backcourt of House or Cassell with Ray Allen, we should see more of this lineup from the Lakers.

Can anyone guard Paul Pierce?

Paul Pierce is simply playing amazing basketball right now, which left me asking myself, is there anyone out there who can guard Paul Pierce? I don’t just mean on the Lakers, because they clearly don’t have anyone up to the task (and no, Kobe can’t guard Pierce, even if he did pick his pocket late in Game 5), I mean in the entire league. Sure, Pierce only averaged 20 points a game this year, and for his career he’s a 23-point per game scorer, so it’s not like he’s the most dominant scorer in the league. But over the course of these playoffs, and especially in the Finals, Pierce has simply been unstoppable. He is a strong ball-handler, can shoot it from anywhere on the court, is extremely strong in the post (and high post), and can finish around the basket, even after contact. He keeps the defense off-balance with his hesitation and spin moves, and once he gets a step on his man, he doesn’t get caught from behind. He is too strong and physical for quicker defenders like Kobe or Bruce Bowen, and but too quick for bigger defenders like Andrei Kirilenko or Josh Smith.

With a little help, I came up with a very short list of players who would be best suited to guard Pierce. The leading candidate, and one of my favorite players, is Shane Battier, who has the size, lateral quickness and most importantly, the intelligence to stay with Pierce. Some other alternatives would include Gerald Wallace of the Bobcats and Ron Artest of the Kings. Before these playoffs, I would have listed LeBron and Tayshaun Prince, but Pierce has proven that neither could effectively guard him for a complete game.

So where does this leave the Lakers? Personally, I’m surprised that they haven’t given Lamar Odom any time on Pierce, just to try to use a much bigger body on him without sacrificing quickness. But Odom isn’t a great individual defender and prone to picking up cheap fouls, and LA needs him on the floor as much as possible. Luke Walton hasn’t even come close to staying with Pierce, and Radmonovic hasn’t had any success on him either. Ariza has had some solid stretches, so I’d expect him to see more time guarding Pierce for the rest of the Finals, and Kobe has done a respectable job, but it takes a real physical toll on Kobe to guard Pierce for the whole game. Since there isn’t one real solution, I think that Jackson just needs to have a fresh body on Pierce as much as possible before Kobe picks him up down the stretch. Also, they need to stop letting Pierce finish at the rim- when he draws contact, it needs to be hard contact, maybe putting him on the floor a whole time. It’s more likely that Pierce has a good game than Allen or Garnett, so shutting him down (or at least slowing him) is a real key for a Lakers win.

The James Posey Factor

When you’re serious about building a championship caliber team, there are certain players who you want who just do what it takes to win. Robert Horry has made a living in this role. Off the top of my head, Steve Kerr, Byron Russell (even though he never won a championship), even Stephen Jackson also make the list. You can add James Posey as well. Already having won a championship with the Miami Heat 2 years ago, Posey has been a huge difference-maker in this series. He is fearless on both ends of the floor, taking and making big 3s on offense, stepping in for charges on defense. Playing both forward spots (he has seen extended time at the 4 because he matches up so well against Lamar Odom), he is a legitimate pest with his help defense, and also with his scrappy play after the whistle. Odom in particular has been getting upset about Posey’s physical play, leading to a near-altercation in the 4^th quarter of Game 5. Not only is he comfortable with his bench role, but he embraces it. Watch the Celtics before they step onto the floor for tip-off. Posey greets each player with a long (maybe too long) hug and shouts some motivational words at them before they take the floor. When a player is down, or has made a mistake, he always seems to be the first one in their ear (there was a moment where Perkins had picked up a cheap foul earlier in the Finals and Posey was on the bench chewing him out). This is the NBA Finals, and he’s not worrying about hurting anyone’s feelings, he’s there to win.

On a side note, Posey is a free agent after this season and his postseason efforts are not going unnoticed. Even though he seems very loyal to this Celtics team, I wouldn’t be surprised if a veteran team looking for a leader to put them over the top offers him a lot of money, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Posey takes the deal. Just something to look out for.

Phil Jackson and the Lakers Bench

Billed as the better of the 2 benches before the series started, the Lakers bench has been a complete non-factor in the Finals (pretty sure this isn’t the first time I’ve written this, but it continues to amaze me how poorly they’ve played). Luke Walton needs to be cut out of the rotation. It’s almost like Phil Jackson doesn’t want to hurt Walton’s feelings, because that’s just his coaching style. But Walton hasn’t helped the Lakers on either end of the floor, and with only 2 games left in the season (at most), his playing time should be reduced dramatically or cut out completely. I bring up the Walton case because it shows how Jackson has really been unable to manage his bench effectively throughout this series. Yes, they are short of big bodies. Turiaf isn’t big enough to bang with the Celtics, and his relentless energy is negated by a Celtics team that always plays with that kind of energy and emotion. Chris Mihm might be big enough, but he hasn’t played in months and really looked rusty in his few minutes in Game 5. I actually liked the gamble by Jackson of putting Mihm in, however, because he was at least trying to shake things up.

I think Trevor Ariza needs to see more minutes (not the first time I’ve said this either), because he’s an active and athletic body on defense who has been doing a good job on hustle plays and loose balls as well. He should be taking Walton’s minutes, as well as Radmonovic’s. To me, Radmonovic is one of the most frustrating players to watch. He certainly does have talent, and his three-point stroke really is great, but he is way too soft, and never really seems into the game. I was saying in Game 5 that he plays a preseason game and a game in the Finals with the same amount of effort. I think that Phil has been too kind to him as well, and needs to get him off the floor when he has any mental lapses. The one bright spot has been Jordan Farmar, who has played relatively well in every game, and has always been aggressive on both ends. Between him and Sasha Vujacic, the Lakers have 2 options to close out games alongside of Fisher, Kobe, Odom and Gasol. Whichever of the Farmar-Vujacic pairing is playing better should get the nod down the stretch.

Game 6 Prediction

Even though the Lakers have still not looked convincing in either of their wins, they still have a few things going for them. The Celtics are legitimately banged up and with the quick turnaround, the health situation isn’t going to get much better. I’ve heard that Perkins will probably miss Game 6 as well, and Paul Pierce just played the full 48 minutes (a few seconds less) before hopping on a cross-country flight. Also, the Lakers big men are coming off of their best games of the series, and they showed some resilience on the defensive end as well. And of course, they still have Kobe Bryant. He hasn’t been the best player in the series so far (easily Pierce), but he’s still the MVP and everyone’s consensus Best Player in the World. He’s shown how hot he can get, and I’m expecting him to feed off of the rowdy Boston crowd for a vintage performance.

That said, the Celtics have played too well and won’t lose two games at home. The Lakers haven’t shown that they can even contain Paul Pierce, and Garnett won’t have as poor of a game at home as he did in LA. The Celtics have just been the better team, and their defense is too good for the Lakers. I’m predicting a Game 6 and series victory for the Celtics.

Game 4 Thoughts, Game 5 Pre-Game

What more is there to say? The biggest comeback in Finals history, the Big 3 live up to their name, and Doc Rivers makes all the right moves. Now the Boston Celtics are one game away from the title, while the Lakers have barely put up a fight.

Before the series, this matchup was billed as the league’s best offense (Lakers) against one of the best defensive teams in the history of the NBA (Celtics). There’s a saying in baseball that good pitching always beats good hitting. In basketball, the same holds true to defense over offense. In Game 4, however, the vaunted Celtics defense took a while to show up, apparently not ready for the emergence of Lamar Odom (playing with newfound aggression) and the intensity that the Lakers brought on both ends the entire first half. So after spotting the Lakers a 20+ point lead, the Celtics decided to go to work. There was a turning point in the 3^rd quarter where you could see the Celtics flip the switch. Using a small-ball lineup of Eddie House at point (instead of a clearly slowed Rajon Rondo), James Posey at the 4 and Garnett at center, the Celtics started swarming to the ball, extending their defense to half court and clearly making the Lakers uncomfortable.

As they started to make their comeback, there was one specific play which I thought really was the beginning of the end for the Lakers. Ray Allen (who has had an amazing series, but more on that later) had a fast break lay-up with only one man, Derek Fisher, to beat. Fisher gave him a hard foul, sending Allen to the floor, and making him earn the points at the free throw line. One or two possessions later, the same thing happened, with Ray Allen leaking out, leaving only Vlad Radmonovic to beat. Radmonovic is 6’10, compared to Allen at only 6’6, but Radmonovic decided simply run under Allen, hoping to distract him. Ray was able to cleanly lay it in, and while the lead was cut to only 10 or so at that point, it highlighted everything wrong with the Lakers. In the regular season, that type of move would have been fine for Radmonovic to pull. But in the NBA Finals, Vlad should have put Allen on the ground, maybe even intentionally earning a flagrant foul. That play, to me, exemplified everything wrong with the Lakers. They are simply a softer team.

At this point of the season, after everyone has been playing for so long, it comes down to who wants it more, and who can go and take the game for themselves (sorry to use clichés here, but stay with me). My point is that the Celtics seemed more motivated and more equipped to win the title. Kobe looks out of gas, and nobody else on the Lakers really inspires much confidence when the game is on the line. In crunch time, the Lakers seem to regress into the Lakers of the past two years, as opposed to the championship-caliber that we saw this year.

Some keys from Game 4 (and looking ahead to Game 5)…

Ray Allen & Paul Pierce

Both known as pretty much one-dimensional scorers their whole careers (Allen moreso than Pierce), Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have turned in complete games the entire Finals so far (except for Pierce in Game 3). Pierce has been getting it done on both ends the entire playoffs, and in Game 4, Pierce switched onto Kobe for the entire second half, bodying him on defense while scoring against Kobe on the other end. The signature moment was Pierce cleanly rejecting a turnaround jumper by Kobe, one of those things that you will rarely see happen, if ever. Allen, after an up-and-down playoffs where some questioned if his career was over, has found his way in the Finals. In Game 4, he played the entire 48 minutes, did a good job guarding Kobe in the first half while still making plays on offense. Not only that, but Allen grabbed 9 rebounds and scored the sealing basket on an isolation play. There’s a reason that Allen is part of the “Big 3,” and right now he’s reminding everyone why.

Lamar Odom & Pau Gasol

Odom and Gasol are both great players. They’ve proven this throughout their respective careers, and one bad series isn’t going to change that. In Game 4, we even got a glimpse of what makes them so great- in the open court, there might not be a better big man pairing than these two. But other than a solid first half of Game 4, Odom hasn’t really shown up, and has found himself on the bench at the end of Games 2 and 4. Gasol, on the other hand, simply can’t stand up to Garnett. He’s had his moments, but the one thing that has really surprised me about Gasol are his hands. For whatever reason I’ve never really thought of Gasol as having bad hands, but there are points where I’m surprised if he DOES make the catch. This is the one thing that makes Kobe more upset than anything, when he makes a play and Gasol can’t finish.

If the Lakers want to even take this series back to Boston, they need both of their star big men to be on the floor contributing the entire game. I’d attempt to break it down further, but at this point I think it simply comes down to playing well or not playing well. Right now, neither is playing well, and until either of them shows that they can play like they are capable, there’s no point in going into any more details.

Doc Rivers & Phil Jackson

It’s been well-documented in the past few days, but the coaching effort by Doc Rivers has been fantastic. He finally found the perfect lineup to use against the Lakers (detailed above). This works because the Lakers biggest weakness is at point guard (nobody to really bother House) and because Posey is big and fast enough to effectively guard Odom. Remember that the Celtics are the team that has been much more banged up, and Rivers is still finding the right combos despite missing two of his best players. I’d expect Rivers to go with the House-Allen-Pierce-Posey-Garnett lineup more in Game 5 until Jackson finds a way to counter it.

Phil Jackson, the 9-time champion, hasn’t looked good at all this series. Part of the problem is his personnel- the Lakers really don’t have enough size to match up with the Celtics, and he doesn’t have any quality big men to spell Odom and Gasol, forcing them into longer minutes even though they aren’t really doing anything to help the Lakers. The Ariza move was great in the first half of Game 4, and I’d expect Ariza to see extended minutes again in Game 5, but you would think that Jackson would have another wrinkle that he would break out. One thought would be to go big against the Celtics, playing Kobe at the point (especially since Farmar and Fisher really aren’t giving them much), Ariza (or Vujacic, depending if they wanted more offense or defense) at the 2, and the trio of Odom, Turiaf and Gasol all at the same time. Since Kobe, Ariza, Odom and Gasol are so athletic (something that is true no matter how well or poorly they’re playing), they could get away with something like this without sacrificing their open court game. Kobe is basically playing point anyway, especially in crunch time, so this really isn’t that radical of a move. Phil has earned the right not to be questioned, but he certainly hasn’t made an impact from the bench so far in the series.

Prediction

Even though the Celtics look like they have this thing all wrapped up (when they stole Game 4, I said that they just won the championship), but I think that Kobe is simply too proud to lose the series on their home court. No team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit, and this doesn’t look like the squad that will do it, but I think the Lakers have at least one more win in them. Look for a classic Kobe performance in another hard-fought game, before the Celtics win it in Game 6. 

Game 3 Thoughts

Trying to keep things a little quicker tonight....

So the Lakers pulled it out in a strangely anti-climactic game. I kept waiting for someone to seize the game, as Kobe eventually did, but I don't think the Lakers want to be in another game in the 80s while they're in LA. Kobe really asserted himself from the beginning, taking it hard to the rim as much as possible. He ended up taking a good amount of midrange jumpers, but most of those came after he had established that he wasn't going to settle. He also worked hard at drawing fouls, despite uncharacteristically missing 7 or 8 free throws. And of course, when the game was on the line, Kobe abused Ray Allen two trips in a row to put the game out of reach.

Besides the aggressive play of Kobe Bryant, the biggest thing for the Lakers was the improved bench play. Turiaf and Walton didn't really put their stamp on the game, especially Walton, who really just looks overmatched out there at this point. However, Farmar, Vujacic and Ariza all played very well and ended up being the difference in the game. Farmar, I thought, played better than Fisher on the night, and really deserves more minutes when he's playing that well. Ariza did a good job defensively and on the boards on both ends. He's a big, athletic player who can really help out when he's playing under control- I like that Phil has been giving him minutes. And of course, there's Vujacic. Like I said in my series preview, Vujacic just loves playing at home. His antics are appreciated, instead of drawing boos, and he always shoots a better percentage. He is a complete pest to whoever he's guarding on defense, and he ended up making the biggest play of the game with a corner three down the stretch. The Celtics were gambling by doubling Kobe as soon as he crossed half-court, essentially opting to play 3 on 4 basketball, and Vujacic made them pay with the three pointer. After that, they had to play Kobe straight up, which is when he beat Ray Allen for those late baskets.

Oddly, the stars for both teams didn't really show up tonight. Out of the Celtics "Big 3", only Ray Allen played like he was a star, and Garnett joined the show late in the game. Pierce was a non-factor throughout. It's really refreshing to see Allen play well- people, myself included, forget how good he used to be and can be. In transition he's an absolute terror because of his ability to spot up and hit the three. As for the Lakers main three, only Kobe really made an impact. Gasol was especially troubling, because he really didn't play with any confidence and really was a liability at points. Odom gets himself in trouble with cheap fouls, and today was no different. Going on and off the court really hurts his ability to get into any kind of rhythm, but he finally got it going towards the end, taking it hard to the basket, and setting himself and others up for easier looks. Still, the lack of depth at the 4/5 is a huge problem for the Lakers, because all 3 big men of theirs are prone to foul trouble, and none of them really have the size/strength combo to match up with the Celtics. 

After these first three games, the one thing that struck me the most is how good the Celtics really are, or more accurately, how much I underestimated them. The Celtics are for real. Their great defense keeps them in every game, and they have enough firepower to make timely runs. And the fact that they were in this game without any contributions from their best player in the Finals so far (Pierce) really speaks to how good they are. 

One more thing that I thought was interesting about the game was the way it ended. The Lakers were up 87-81 with the ball and 20 seconds left, and the Celtics just let them play it out. At this point, NONE of the Lakers had been shooting free throws well, this includes Kobe, and yet, the Celtics let them just play it out. You always wish that teams would do this, but to see it actually happen, especially in the Finals, it just didn't seem right, almost like they gave up too early. Even if they had fouled they probably wouldn't have won, but I still think they should have tried.

However it ended, the Celtics are now up 2 games to 1 going into Thursday's Game 4. For me, not too many questions were answered- this was a sloppy game where Kobe really shined in the beginning and down the stretch, Ray Allen kept the Celtics in it, and the Lakers bench showed up for the home crowd to help them pull it out. If that style of game breaks out again, I'm not sure the Lakers win it. They really need some help from Gasol, and a complete game from Odom. I'd also expect Jackson to mess with his bench a little, giving a few more minutes to Ariza and Farmar, and taking some away from Walton. 

More thoughts to come before Game 4. 

Game 3 Pre-Game Thoughts

Some keys for tonight’s game: 

Rebounding

One of the biggest problems for the Lakers (and there have been several) so far has been the Celtics large rebounding edge. Gasol and Odom are explosive open-court athletes, but so far they just haven’t been getting it done on the glass. Unfortunately, this isn’t entirely their faults, as they simply don’t have the size and body types to bang down low with the likes of KG, Perkins, PJ Brown and Leon Powe. Considering that the only other big man for the Lakers, Ronny Turiaf, is undersized as well, this is a problem that won’t be easily fixed for LA. So what’s the solution?

The way the Lakers fix this is by making a concerted team effort on the boards, on both ends. On the defensive end, the Lakers tend to rely on Gasol and Odom to get the boards and trigger their running game, either with Gasol and his outlet passing, or Odom grabbing it and taking the ball himself. But they have both been getting beat, both with bad timing and sheer size and physicality that they just don’t have. The solution is slowing down their fast-break game and focusing on getting the extra possessions. The Celtics have been doing a great job of hitting the offensive boards while still getting back on defense, so the Lakers should make rebounding a team effort, and unleashing their open-court attack less often. A simple change, but 5-10 extra possessions can make the difference in a close game (like the first two).

Bench Play

My take on bench play, especially in the playoffs, is that the home team’s bench will almost ALWAYS play better. Role players and energy guys simply feed off the home crowd and the familiarity of their home court. This fact is why home teams in general are harder to beat in the playoffs (or at least my theory). There’s no way that Leon Powe would have had 21 points in 15 minutes in LA.

Before the series started, I thought that it would be an advantage for the Celtics if their bench could play LA’s to a draw. Instead, they have taken it a step farther and completely outplay them through two games. The Lakers need to come back with a strong effort tonight, especially Sahsa Vujacic and Luke Walton, the two best bench players for the Lakers who haven’t showed up at all for this series so far. LA winning the battle of the benches gives them a big edge tonight.

Officiating 

Without starting back up on my Game 2 rant, I am very interested to see how the game is called tonight. Like I said previously, the last thing I want to see is another disparity in free throws, this time favoring the Lakers. However, I am looking to see if the Lakers force the issue or not. Regardless of the officiating, the bottom line is that the Lakers, other than Pau Gasol, have been a jump-shooting team so far, while the Celtics have been extremely aggressive, going to the basket as much as possible. The Celtics defense has been geared towards not letting anyone, especially Kobe, into the lane, but Kobe, Fisher, Farmar and Odom need to work harder at getting into the teeth of the Boston defense. Even if they are looking to pass, getting into the lane will really open up the Lakers offense.

Kobe Bryant vs Paul Pierce 

In the battle of the stars, Pierce has effectively played Kobe to a draw through the first two games. After everyone expected Kobe to dominate the series on both ends, this was sort of a wakeup call, and I’m sure nobody hears it louder than Kobe himself. I’d expect him to come out looking for his own shot, and trying to get in the lane and finish at the rim. Kobe needs to outshine everyone while not being selfish, a task that he is certainly up for.

Pierce, on the other hand, has been playing better than anyone could have predicted, especially on only one leg. His 4-4 shooting from deep last game was amazing, and he really feels like he can’t miss right now. He is playing with supreme confidence, and it’s not likely to change in front of his hometown crowd in LA. To make matters worse, the Lakers really don’t have anyone to guard Pierce. Kobe can do it, and I’d expect him to see extra minutes on Pierce in Game 3, but don’t forget that it was Kobe that was guarding Pierce at the end of Game 2 when Pierce got into the lane and got fouled for the clinching free throws. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had another Trevor Ariza sighting, because he really is the best player the Lakers have to use against Pierce.

 

My Prediction

If the Lakers couldn’t afford to be down 2-0 in the series, then they DEFINITELY can’t afford to be down 3-0. Both games have been close, even though the Celtics had a huge lead most of Game 2, but “almost” doesn’t count as a win, especially not in the NBA Finals (sorry if that was too cliché). This game truly is a must-win for the Lakers, and I’d hope that they come out with a sense of urgency and try to put this one away as early as possible. I’m banking on a Lakers win, although closer than they’d want it, tonight. 

Finals, Game 2

Let me start today with a little background on myself. I have been an NBA fan for as long as I can remember. I have always watched any game that’s on, especially in the playoffs. In all my years watching basketball, I’ve never really had one team that I’ve rooted for more than any other… I’m simply a fan of the game. Currently, I have certain teams that I do and don’t root for- the Wizards are the one team that I support more than any other, and if asked who my favorite team is, I’ll say Washington. I generally root against the Spurs and Cavs. But almost any other team is fair game, and during the regular season, and even in the playoffs, my allegiances change from game to game. Although I hadn’t picked a team to root for in these finals ahead of time, I ended up on the LA bandwagon, mainly because of Kobe, but also because I enjoy the more uptempo, West coast style that the Lakers play with. That said, I try not to have any bias when discussing, covering, or writing about a game. The reason that I never cheer too hard for any one team is because I’m more interested, and always have been, in seeing a good game of basketball, where both teams are playing to win, it’s generally close, and it’s being officiated fairly on both sides.

The biggest disparity in free throws in one game that I’ve seen was the famous Game 5 of the Heat-Mavericks series 2 years ago, when the Heat went to the line 49 times, compared to 25 for the Mavs. In that game, a superstar, Dwyane Wade, had the same free throw stats as the entire Dallas team (21-25). Last night, however, made that game look fair. Sticking strictly to numbers, which no matter how you look at it, can’t be used for bias, last night’s game was not fairly officiated. The Celtics took 38 free throws, while the Lakers only managed 10. In an even more ridiculous stat, reserve forward (and star for a night) Leon Powe shot 13 free throws in his 15 minutes of play, three more than the entire Lakers team over the whole 48 minute game. None of these are typos. I’ll get into all of this a little more later, but first a little recap of the game last night. I recorded my thoughts in the same fashion that I did for Game 1, but am going to try to report it a little differently. Please let me know what you think.

 

First Half- 

The first thing I noticed at the start of the game was the body language of the two teams- the Celtics were in rhythm right away, playing efficiently on both ends of the floor. The Lakers came out aggressively, punctuated by the big dunk early by Odom, but they also seemed very anxious on both ends, acting like they needed to establish a big lead early, but failing to do so.

Phil Jackson got a lot of press for his ability and history to make changes in Game 2 of a series. The first sub off the bench, after 2 quick fouls on Radmonovic, was to bring in Trevor Ariza, a player most people haven’t heard of until this point. I’ve always been an Ariza fan- he’s a very good defensive player, and probably the best guy to guard Pierce that the Lakers have. He hasn’t played up to this point because he just recovered from a broken foot. I loved the Ariza move, even though they didn’t end up sticking with it. My book on Ariza is that he won’t really do anything on offense, but he’ll really contribute defensively, both as an individual and team defender. He’s also fast and athletic, can run and finish on the break. On an interesting side note, those early minutes were all Ariza got all game. Playing Ariza, basically a defensive specialist, is a difficult move for Phil Jackson to make- does he want to go with a strong defender while sacrificing an offensive threat, or does he want to stay with someone like Vujacic or Radmonovic, not as strong of defenders but space the floor better offensively? Something to look for in Game 3.

I noted this early, but really no injury issue for the Celtics- Pierce and Perkins both looked fine. Even though Perkins was once again a non-factor, I think that has more to do with his tendency to pick up cheap fouls and also the fact that he’s generally the slowest player on the floor in this series, and an athletic big like Powe is a better fit. 

Gasol was the best player for the Lakers in the first half. He was calling for the ball, making moves on offense with authority, and finishing aggressively.

I made this note early in the first half, and it ended up holding true. It seemed to me like Kobe was on edge from the beginning, even when they had a lead, he was getting very frustrated, and ready to blow at any second. There were several possessions on offense where the Lakers took (and usually missed) a shot before Kobe even got a touch. This is not a selfish thing for Kobe, that is simply the best player needing to touch the ball on offense if your team wants a chance to win. Notice that I said “touch,” not “shot.” There’s a big difference. To end the first quarter Kobe drew two quick, cheap fouls; both of them were fouls (one on offense, one on defense), but I didn’t think that either of them were fouls that should have been called in the Finals, especially on the MVP.

Just for the record, my last note of the first quarter from last night read “I really don’t like the way the game is being called so far.” And it only got worse from there.

I’m really happy to see Ray Allen playing so well, on both ends. It’s as if the slump never happened.

Something interesting to note which I noticed last night, is that you never see the Lakers with the ball so late in the shot clock as you do against the Celtics. Their defense, which despite their regular season numbers, left me skeptical, really is as good as advertised.

Even if the numbers were consistent on both sides, but a game with lots of fouls really favors the Celtics, mainly because it suits the Celtics style of play (half court defense, ability to play efficient half-court offense). The bigger issue with the fouls calls, and this is still in the first half, was the bad body language from Lakers after foul calls. You can tell that they were feeling like they couldn’t play defense without fouling, which can really get into a player’s head.

Obviously he goes on to become the story of the game, and everyone will be talking about how much they love Powe, but I really like how he understands his limitations. He’s very undersized for someone who plays the 4/5, but he plays within himself, brings as much energy as possible, and when he’s in the game, good things usually happen. Which leads me to my next point…why didn’t he play against Detroit at all?

Once again written in the first half: “Pierce & Allen really feel like they can’t miss”

It’s interesting how Sasha Vujacic, once Jackson’s favorite bench player, has been a complete non-factor on both ends, and his minutes have been dramatically cut.

There was one sequence, which all happened in less than 30 seconds, which really showcased the complete package of what Rondo can do. He blocks the jumper of a 6’10” player (Radmonovic) and then dunks it on the other end, then on the next Celtics possession, grabs an offensive rebound in traffic before getting to the free throw line.

The two major stories for me in the first half were the fact that it played out basically the same as Game 1- the Celtics can’t play any better, the Lakers can’t play much worse. The other, of course, was the free throw disparity. In the first half, the Lakers shot two free throws; one was a technical free throw, the other was an “and-1” free throw by Gasol. Even if the Celtics hadn’t shot 19 free throws in that same half, the fact that the Lakers only had two is ridiculous.

Second Half- 

The Lakers needed to come out in the second half with passion, but control. The key should have been efficiency on both ends, which immediately wasn’t happening, as the Celtics collected 2 offensive rebounds in their first two offensive possessions.

I wrote this as soon as it happened, that the Kobe technical was inappropriate. To me, and this is probably taking it a little too far, but there were times where I felt that the refs were almost enjoying calling fouls on Kobe, which you should never see. Of course, the fact that it’s in Boston makes it even worse, because their fans are relentless, especially when they have the lead.

I really liked seeing James Posey talking to Perkins after picking up his 4^th foul early. They cut to this several times, and it illustrates that Posey is a real leader.

“The game is getting hard to watch. I hate conspiracy theorists more than most, but during games like this one, it’s hard not to raise your eyebrows.” I wrote this when the free throw stats read like this- Celtics 26, Lakers 2. That should never happen in a regular season game, let alone the NBA Finals.

Gasol gets beaten for offensive boards more than he should. I mentioned this in my pre-series analysis, saying that his physical abilities let him get away with poor timing, but players like Garnett, Powe and veteran PJ Brown don’t let him get away with that.

Radmonovic is so frustrating to watch. Clearly he’s a good player, because Jackson trusts him and there are times when he’s great to have on your side. But he really hurt the Lakers when they were trying to make a run midway through the third. He took 2 bad shots in a row on offense, gets beaten by Pierce on a backdoor cut, and then the Celtics reel off a Powe-led 11-0 run. And of course, Boston thrives at home when they get any kind of momentum, which is really being showcased here.

The charge call on Odom, which was his 5^th foul was just a snowball type of play, but it really reminds you how crisp the defensive rotations have been for the Celtics all game and all series.

I was watching an interview before the game with Phil Jackson, saying that he was afraid of playing Farmar against veteran Sam Cassell (who has more tricks up his sleeve than anyone else in the league). Farmar must have heard this type of criticism and taken it to heart, because I thought he played a great game. He was playing with confidence, even when the game was a blowout, and I hope he can carry that back to LA, where he generally plays better anyway.

Speaking of point guards, I am convinced that Rondo is going to be a star. He has so many physical gifts (watch how easily he palms the ball) and is still only scratching the surface. Without much fanfare, he simply had a phenomenal game, collecting 16 assists while only turning it over twice, and was the primary ball-handler and decision maker for the Celtics in the 2^nd half.

It’s like the Lakers bench, except for maybe Farmar, shouldn’t have even traveled to Boston. They had received so much praise before this series (from me among others), but nobody has even come close to making an impact on this game.

Paul Pierce is just fun to watch. Even though he traveled on this specific play (and laughed it off afterwards), its amazing how Paul Pierce can make 3s after contact. Pierce and Kobe are probably the biggest threats to have a 4-point play in the league.

Just as I was writing that Radmonovic hadn’t helped the Lakers all night, and that his minutes should be dramatically cut, he comes back and leads the charge to cut the lead to 4, making plays on defense and in the open court. He’s really a maddening player to watch, and must be even worse as a player or coach on his team, and that’s always been the story with him.

It’s important to note that Kobe gets fouled on almost every play, especially when he goes into the lane. You don’t want to see a star get escorted to the foul line by the refs, but at the same time, there really should have been more fouls called on the Celtics, especially against Kobe.

There’s a lot to be said for the Lakers not quitting on the game. Sure, it’s the NBA Finals, so you should never see a team completely throw in the towel, but instead of simply playing the game out, the Lakers really got mad and tried to win it late. Kobe’s body language really impressed me as well, because nothing was going in their favor, especially the foul calls, but they just tried to brush it off and go to work. A 2 point game with 38 seconds left, following a furious 31-9 run by the Lakers, is basically all you can ask for if you’re the Lakers. In that situation, was there any way Pierce wasn’t going to get the ball? The guy is clutch, and immediately finds his way into the lane, draws contact (a legitimate foul) and sinks the two free throws to seal the game. Which leads me to my next point. When you have a game this close within the last minute, it really makes you wonder what could have happened if there wasn’t such a big free throw disparity. Even 10 less free throws for the Celtics (or 10 more for the Lakers) would have still been a clear advantage for the Lakers (not sure anyone would even be happy with a 38-20 disparity, for instance), but those 10 points would have most likely resulted in a Laker victory. Really has to leave a sour taste in your mouth, especially if you’re a Lakers fan.

Not sure what to say at the end of this one. Congrats to the Lakers for coming back from such a large deficit, but a loss is a loss, and for the Celtics, a win is a win. Also, congratulations to Leon Powe, who was seemingly close unstoppable. Turned out the Celtics needed every one of his 21 points in this one.

And now onto my rant...

I want to try to stress, as much as possible, that the last thing I want is conspiracy theorists. The NBA, probably more than any sport, attracts tons of conspiracy talks every year (interesting debate- in which major sport can the officials have the biggest impact on the game? I say baseball). Anyway, my point is that the last thing I want to see is people turned off from my favorite sport, and I'm sure the league feels the same way. So what happened last night? I went to sleep upset about how the game was called, and when I sat down to write this morning, I still felt the same way. I have already pointed out the critical facts, mainly with the free throw difference, and also some interpretation- basically that when the fouls pile up on you as a team, it makes playing with confidence a lot harder. If you're the Lakers, and you're seeing so many fouls being called, you're wondering how you're supposed to play aggressive defense without fouling. What ends up happening is you get lots easy baskets and trips to the free throw line. The fact that they almost made it a game is amazing. 

All that said, I'm hoping that the league doesn't try to make up for this in Game 3 by sending the Lakers to the free throw line four times more than the Celtics (which once again, as ridiculous as it sounds, is what happened last night), because that just isn't good basketball. My frustration here doesn't come as a Lakers fan, or even as a casual Lakers supporter, but as a true basketball fan, one who didn't enjoy watching the game last night because, to me, it seemed like one team had an unfair advantage over the other. I'm looking forward to seeing how the media from both sides of the country responds to this game, and also how the teams respond in Game 3. 

Either way, Game 2 is in the books, and the Celtics are up 2-0 in the NBA Finals, 2 games away from winning the title. I'll write more about the game side of things either tonight or tomorrow. 

Quick plug before I go: Just wanted to thank everyone who has been reading the blog so far, it really does mean a lot to me. Almost a week in now, I've really been enjoying writing it, and love getting feedback. I am reading all of the comments, so please feel free to send me criticism or compliments in any form, I'm extremely open to them. Also, if you like reading this, spread the word. My goal is get as many regular readers as possible, and I can't accomplish that without all of your help.

Game 2 Preview

Had a few days to look back on the first game, a 10-point Celtics win that was much closer than the final score, led by the heroics of Paul Pierce. As I said in my post-game thoughts, I think the Celtics outplayed the Lakers, but despite LA not playing well all game, it was close down the stretch.

I hate to accuse Kobe of gunning, but the Lakers offense definitely got bogged down in the second half. Gasol only had 2 points after halftime, and Odom never really looked into the game. They both, Odom especially, need to really be more aggressive and look for their shot. When Gasol and Odom are threats (looking for 20 points from Gasol, 15 points & 5+ assists from Odom), it opens up the rest of the offense for the Lakers- setting up their shooters for open 3's, a big part of their regular offense that the Celtics were able to shut down in Game 1. Also, someone from the bench really needs to step up. I think the guy needs to be Vujacic, who acts like he's the man but sometimes has trouble delivering. Also, their point guard duo of Derek Fisher & Jordan Farmar got outplayed by Rajon Rondo (and a few surprising minutes from Sam Cassell), which can't happen if the Lakers want to win. Basically, the Lakers, as we knew, really didn't play well as a whole, and an improvement in any of these areas could really swing the game in their favor. 

The health of the Celtics is a real issue going into Game 2. Pierce was able to gut out Game 1, but after 2 days for the knee to swell up, I think his mobility, especially on defense, is going to be a problem. After he returned from the injury, Pierce because strictly a jump shooter. I'd expect him to be mostly staying on the perimeter in Game 2 and to have real trouble staying with anyone on defense, something that LA will need to exploit. I doubt he'll see any time on Kobe in Game 2. Almost as big of an issue for the Celtics is the health of Kendrick Perkins. After leaving with a sprained ankle in Game 1, Perkins didn't return and sounds doubtful for the game tonight. Although he didn't play very well when he was in (1 point, 4 fouls), Perkins is still the best big man the Celtics have other than Garnett. If he can't give them his usual minutes, or play at all, it puts a lot of pressure on PJ Brown & Leon Powe. Both of them played well in Game 1, not having too much trouble against Turiaf like I had predicted, but they simply can't hold up over the course of a full game against Odom and Gasol. I'd look for Perkins to still start, and try to give them whatever he has, but most of his minutes will end up going to Brown & Powe. Also, Rivers went to the smaller lineup of Posey at the 4 and Garnett at the 5 down the stretch of the first game, so look for this lineup to get some more time in Game 2. 

In Game 2, I'd look for Kobe to defer to Odom and Gasol early, and try to get at least one of them going. What made the Lakers so hard to defend all year was their ability to attack from anywhere on the floor with a variety of options. But the first thing to change needs to be their lack of aggression. As I mentioned in my comments immediately after Game 1, nobody on the Lakers came out and attacked, really tried to win the game in Boston. If the Lakers are aggressive and really try to grab the game, they can come back and steal Game 2 and home-court advantage. The Celtics will be ready, however, because if the series is tied at 1-1 going to LA, they know that they might not return to Boston. With Pierce hobbled, Garnett and Ray Allen (who played a very solid all-around Game 1) need to carry the load offensively and take whatever they can get from Pierce. 

The bottom line, for me at least, is that the Celtics did almost everything right, winning the battle for almost every loose ball, getting the emotional lift from Paul Pierce, big numbers from the Big 3, and a clear advantage in the point guard matchup. The Lakers, on the other hand, did almost nothing right. I'm expecting another hard-fought game, but as much as Boston can't afford to be tied at 1 all, the Lakers really don't want to be down 2-0 going back to home. With 2 starters at least hobbled by injuries, I simply don't think the Celtics have the bodies to pull out the win. I'm predicting that the Lakers win a close one with Kobe scoring at least 10 in the 4th quarter. 

Finals, Game 1

For Game 1, I keep notes as the game went on here and am going to post them as they were initially written (and expounding on some of the points). The first half of the first game of the finals (and almost any series) is all about feeling out the other team, seeing if either side can establish themselves and the style they want to play, looking at matchups, etc. I had a few quick thoughts from the first half before getting more detailed as the 2nd half went on. Remember, these are all thoughts that I had at the moment, without the benefit of hindsight. I wrap everything up briefly at the end. Enjoy. 

1st Half

Gasol matched up on Garnett early, which might not be the right approach. Perkins will really be able to body Odom. 

Ray Allen is a pure shooter. It was only a matter of time before he shot his way out of the slump. The real Ray Allen is back, hitting 3s, and playing some pretty good defense on Kobe as well.

Both sides revealing some interesting things to start the 2^nd quarter- Fisher, Cassell and Powe all out on the floor, all guys who haven’t been starting the 2^nd quarters throughout the playoffs.

Powe really plays well when given the chance. Still not sure why he was sitting most of the Detroit series, but he’s making his presence known on the glass. And Cassell, really never seen a shot he didn’t like.

At this point (in the 2^nd), Gasol, Turiaf and Odom have all hit at least one outside jumper. The Lakers get much harder to defend if their bigs are hitting from outside.

Gasol really has good shot-blocking instincts, and isn’t afraid of Garnett. Should be interesting if they remain matched up on each other.

2 big dunks by Gasol- he really finishes well around the basket, knows how to use his length.

Interesting that Farmar didn’t get a single minute in the 2^nd quarter- wondering if that’s a matchup that Phil didn’t like, or just wanted to give Fisher more minutes….

Kobe passing up a wide open 3 to give Gasol a look inside was one of the more interesting moments of the first half

Know I’ve said it already, but Radmonovic & Fisher played much more in the 2^nd than they usually do. Is Phil just shortening his bench or trying to go with the hot hands?

Garnett was really phenomenal in the first half, but he had to be with Pierce in foul trouble

Not very original, but it's kind of sad that Eddie House's son has been on the court more than his dad...

3^rd Quarter

Pierce making up for his missed time in the 2^nd quarter- quick basket, 4 point play, then another jumper. Not sure that Vlad can guard him when he’s on

In the mean time, Garnett is ON FIRE

When Kobe gets that look, it seems like he’s just maintaining, not using too much energy. Celtics playing with so much emotion, especially Pierce.

Kobe switches to Pierce at the first sign of trouble, immediately forces a turnover. Shows you how good Kobe can be when he’s locked in on defense.

DOWN GOES PIERCE! The Celtics simply cannot survive without him… and this looks serious…

Rondo has been very aggressive, really outplaying Fisher

Bad foul call on Perkins, and then they lose him too. Interesting to see how the momentum shifts here.

Ray Allen with a huge 3 to keep the fans in it and not disheartened by 2 starters going to the locker room

And here comes Paul Pierce. This series really means too much to him, really not that surprised to see him back so soon. Should be interesting to see how effective he is though...

I guess Paul Pierce is feeling OK. Quickly nails two 3s. The guy is a warrior, really loves the game and loves Boston. The fans here are really getting into it, LA needs to keep it close or this could get out of hand.

The Celtics in general seem to be faster to loose balls, really feeding off that home crowd, but they’re working pretty hard, I wonder if they can keep it up.

That dunk by Kobe was just ridiculous. Bad pass by Fisher to go along with bad timing by both of them, but Kobe just stayed up there until the ball got there. Not too many guys in the league who could have thrown that down.

4^th Quarter 

Leon Powe has really given them good minutes tonight, it’s good to see a guy not getting discouraged by a lack of minutes and making sure he’s ready when his number is called.

Phil has Farmar in to start the 4^th, it should be interesting to see how he does here.

I just assumed that the errant Celtics pass was going to be a backcourt violation, what a save by KG. He’s still among the best athletes in the league, not many can match his combination of size, speed, length… guy’s the complete package.

Cassell is really hurting the Celtics here, with Rondo playing so well Cassell shouldn’t be getting any 4^th quarter minutes. Doc seems to insist on playing him, but it’s clear that he’s a liability. And still no signs of Eddie House, who is at least a threat from deep. Cassell isn't doing ANYTHING right, on either end.

Posey just knows what it takes to win a championship. It’s just one of those things that some guys can say and some guys never will be able to.

The Lakers don’t mind playing from behind, but playing the bench deep in the 4^th quarter on the road (and no Kobe?) is asking for trouble.

Without Kobe in, the offense really got stagnant. We all know the guy can play all day without getting tired, not sure why you even let him sit for a minute in the 4^th.

The Lakers just have trouble scoring when their jumpers aren’t falling, it’s been the case all playoffs. They really need to stop settling and someone needs to go to the basket. Lots of passive basketball on their end, and I guess we’re really seeing that vaunted Boston defense.

This game has really gotten ugly here down the stretch, and I’m not convinced that it’s even that good of defense on either end- seems like just bad offense on both sides. 

Pierce really is doing a great job guarding Kobe, and the scheme seems to be working. Kobe just hasn’t been Kobe here in the 4^th, for whatever reason.

Just one example of how important every call can be- Odom either fouls out on a charge, or gets the 3 point play to cut the lead to 5 with 3 minutes left. See if that makes a difference in the end.

I’ve already said it, but Kobe really hasn’t been too impressive down the stretch.

PJ Brown is exiting as both teams go small (with Posey and Radmonovic coming in), but he gave them some great minutes. The “Big 3” aren’t the only ones looking for their first championship.

You have to put a body on Garnett…. KG makes them pay with the big dunk. Kind of telling of the whole game, Celtics just seemed to want it more and nobody from the Lakers responded with a big performance.

The Fisher in-and-out pretty indicative of whole game for the Lakers, they just couldn’t get the ball in the basket.

Post-Game Thoughts

Like I said many times, Kobe really didn’t play that well. Looking at his shot chart, the ONLY shot he made in the paint the entire game was the alley oop on the break. He finished up shooting 9/25 for 23 points, which really isn’t efficient at all. In the postgame interview, Phil made an interesting point- Kobe was shooting pretty well, there were times where it looked like he couldn’t miss, but some of them just weren’t falling. The Celtics seemed to stick with their early-season strategy of making a jump shooter (he only got to the line 5 times, making all of them). Also, he only had 4 points in the 4^th quarter; he really just didn’t seem comfortable for whatever reason. The Celtics did a good job of mixing up hard doubles, soft doubles, and sending a variety of defenders from different angles at him late in the possessions.

It ended up being a very quiet night for the Lakers big men; Odom finished with 14 points, 6 boards, and only 1 assist. He seemed to be doing fine, but he was too passive most of the time. He needs to be aggressive and make his presence known, especially since Garnett wasn’t even guarding him the whole time. Gasol had his moments, but he only finished with 15 (on 11 shots) and 8 boards. This is interesting to me because his jumper was falling early, and when that’s the case it usually leads to a 20+ point night for him. Once again, the Lakers just seemed uncomfortable out there.

Garnett started out really hot, but cooled off late. Still, 22 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1 of the Finals works for me any day. I thought he also did a pretty good job, relatively, of keeping his emotions in check and not letting the energy get the better of him. Ray Allen was a real difference maker as well, scoring an efficient 19 points on only 13 shots. He also played strong individual AND team defense, and did a good job of handling the ball as well. Glad to see that the real Ray Allen is back.

Obviously, the heard and soul of the Celtics proved his worth again. Paul Pierce just knows how to play basketball, and has always been one of the toughest players in the league. That injury really looked bad (still might come back to haunt him, as I assume he got by tonight off pure adrenaline), but Pierce has come too far to not seize the moment. Should go down right away as one of the more impressive individual Finals performances. 

 

Looking Ahead

I think the Celtics have to proud of themselves for gutting out a win. But it’s important to remember that they’ve only held serve so far. The really enjoyed the environment that the home crowd provided, and there were several times where things would have been very different had the game been in LA. Of course, they earned home court with their phenomenal regular season, so it’s definitely not anything to criticize. That said, The Lakers had a pretty awful game, and there literally wasn’t one single player who really stood out and seized the moment, which might have something to do with them being the younger of the two teams, and also with them playing on the road. Despite all that, they were fairly close until the last two minutes, which is not a good sign for the Celtics. The emotional lift that Pierce gave them when he came back in really carried them, and the defense was as good as billed.

 

What's next from me...

In the next few days, I’ll be offering some more extensive thoughts on Game 1 as well as what we should look for in Game 2. Also, I’m going to offer up some final regular season thoughts, as well as look ahead to the upcoming NBA Draft and my initial scouting of the most highly regarded prospects.

Also, please give me feedback. If you liked or didn't like the style in which I covered tonight's game, let me know. As much as I enjoy writing, it doesn't do me much good if people don't like reading it.

NBA Finals Preview

Quick Note: This entry is pretty long, and as most of you know, I have a tendency to be long-winded, especially when it comes to sports. But what can I say, it's the NBA Finals and I'm excited.

Plenty has been said about the history of this rivalry, but when it comes down to it, these two current teams have absolutely no history of playing each other- even their two meetings this year were before the Gasol trade (as unfair as it was, it still happened), which is when the Lakers really redefined their team and became the title favorite that they are today. It really isn’t noteworthy that the Celtics won both head to head games this season (the Cavs beat the Spurs in both regular season meetings last year before getting swept in the finals), but I do find it a little more interesting that Kobe was awful in both meetings. 

Going position by position before getting to the series prediction…

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs Derek Fisher

As the only true point guard on the Celtics roster (Sam Cassell really doesn’t count at this point), it is obviously important that Rondo plays well. I really love watching Rondo when he is playing well and doing the things that he does best- providing full-court defensive pressure, tracking down loose balls, and setting up teammates with his penetration. His speed and open court abilities on both ends will be a big factor in this series, because the Lakers love to get up and down the court. When he’s not handling the ball, Rondo needs to be aggressive cutting towards the basket instead of settling for jumpers, which are usually the equivalent of a coin toss even if he’s wide open.

Fisher’s main job is going to be keeping a body on Rondo, and hitting open shots when the opportunity strikes. He doesn’t do too much ball-handling anymore, because Kobe and Odom dominate the ball in the triangle offense, but his experience will be vital in bringing the ball up the court against Rondo’s relentless pressure. Something that I’ve noticed Fisher doing over the course of the playoffs, almost to a fault, is putting his head down and taking it himself on the break. I have to think that these are instructions coming from Jackson, because I’ve seen him make the wrong read several times in this situation. Since he’s so strong with the ball, he can usually convert, especially against the weaker Rondo, but it’s still something to watch if he blows a few of these.

Shooting Guard: Ray Allen vs Kobe Bryant

The book on Ray Allen, especially after the up-and-down playoffs that he has endured so far, is pretty simple. If he is hitting his 3s, he is a dangerous offensive weapon who requires constant attention. When he has been on, he has gotten it done mostly in transition, picking his spots on the perimeter and hitting rhythm jumpers. The reason he can do this is because, even in his advanced age, Allen can get to the basket when he is played for the 3. It’s easy to forget because of how poorly he has played for most of the postseason, but Allen used to be a premier scorer who could hit the 3, knock down mid-range jumpers off the dribble, and finish at the rim. We have seen flashes of that in the Detroit series, after his phenomenal showdown with fellow UConn alum Rip Hamilton. The biggest problem with Allen in this series is that he will probably be defended by Kobe, who is very capable of completely shutting him down. If Allen isn’t offering anything on offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if Doc Rivers pulls him for defensive specialist James Posey.

As for Kobe, there’s not really anything I can say that you haven’t heard already. The best player in the world (now confirmed) is the happiest man on the planet right now, finally winning MVP and taking a team that is truly his to the Finals. Kobe has been simply phenomenal and has made it look relatively easy thus far. The Spurs used the Celtics-inspired strategy of making Kobe a jump-shooter, denying him from getting to the rim or the line, but Kobe made them pay from deep, and was fresh to finish the games. The biggest flaw in this strategy, to me, is that Kobe is so good that he can get anywhere he wants to shoot his jumper. He loves running to the corners of the paint, basically the charity stripe, and launching from there (essentially a lay-up for him). You’d think that the Celtics, after watching the tape on the Spurs series, would get physical with him, concede some points at the line, and try to wear him down. However, the Jazz, probably the most physical team in the league, tried this strategy and it didn’t really work either. As usual when defending Kobe, you just have to pick your poison and stick with it. I’m anticipating seeing Kobe play more defense in this series, as opposed to “guarding” Bruce Bowen as he did against the Spurs, but it won’t wear him out as much as people think. Kobe LOVES playing defense, is in better shape than anyone out there (remind you of anyone?), and right now he sees the light at the end of the tunnel. He’ll be doing everything in his power to bring this one home.

When looking at this match-up, don’t forget the old Kobe-Allen feud from a few years back. As even-keeled as Ray usually is, the two of them used to get real heated. I doubt that Kobe has forgotten about any of this, and will make it his job to make sure Allen doesn’t get a single clean look.

 

Small Forward: Paul Pierce vs Vlad Radmanovic 

Even with KG around, Paul Pierce is the real heart and soul of Boston. He’s still the captain, and in the elaborate Boston pre-game introductions, Pierce is still the last player announced. The biggest change I’ve seen from Pierce this season (which he promised before the season started) has been his defense. I’ve always been a fan of the all-around game of Pierce, but he has really taken it to another level with his play on the defensive end. He drew the near-impossible assignment of marking LeBron in the Cavs series, doing a good of a job as anyone, and continued it in the next round by completely annihilating Tayshaun Prince, who really didn’t make an impact the entire East Finals. I thought Prince was the most important player on the Pistons (maybe a bit dramatic), but Pierce’s physical play on both ends made him a complete non-factor. He draws another tough assignment here as the primary defender on Kobe, since Allen has no chance of staying with him. It’s been written that Pierce loves playing the Lakers, and is usually most on top of his game in LA, but I can’t think it will be easy going for him here. He’s going to really be working on defense the entire game, and LA has a variety of defenders to throw at him. That said, it means the world to Pierce to be representing the Celtics in the Finals, more than anyone else on the team, and you have to think that he’ll be up to the challenge.

I love how Jackson has defined the role for Radmanovic. He’s a talented player, but not as good as Vujacic or Walton. He really only plays the beginnings of the 1^st and 3^rd quarters, and seemingly only scoring in the first, before joining the bench unit for a few sporadic minutes. At 6’10”, he’s very mobile, as well as a strong shooter, and anything LA gets from Radmonovic is a bonus. He’ll start games guarding Paul Pierce, trying to use his far superior size to his advantage, but he’ll end up playing far fewer minutes than Walton (probably the best guy to guard Pierce) and Jackson’s new favorite closer, Sasha Vujacic.

 

Power Forward: Kevin Garnett vs Lamar Odom

The defensive player of the year is also making his first Finals appearance, and he’ll be the first to tell you how much it means to him. KG’s game is so much about intensity that it sometimes comes back to haunt him. The Maxiell block, as great of an individual play as it was, also came on what KG thought would be a momentum shifting play, and probably could have been avoided if he wasn’t going for the homerun dunk. That said, KG is a phenomenal player, and with Pierce picking up the slack in crunch time, KG can focus on impacting the game from his high post position on offense and his versatile defense. When his perimeter jumper is falling (he loves shooting it from anywhere one step inside the 3-point line), he’s capable of 30+ on any night. If it isn’t, which has happened a few times in the playoffs, he needs to be faster to go to the post. Odom isn’t as big or strong as KG, and Garnett will need to be selfish down low to exploit this matchup. He seems reluctant to bang at times, which I’ve always thought was cause for concern.

One of the most versatile players in the league, Odom has put it all together and is playing great basketball right now. He was a little shaky at points in the San Antonio series, but he also shined in big moments and was very much a factor in all of their wins. Many have said that as Odom goes, so go the Lakers (which isn’t always the case because Kobe can take over any game at any time), but either way, the Lakers have been happy with the results so far. The Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs didn’t have anyone to match up with Odom (I thought Ime Udoka and Andrei Kirilenko could have been used more on him), but Boston has the perfect answer in Garnett. KG is one of the few players in the league who is taller and stronger than Odom but can still stay with him. KG got the better of him in both regular season matchups, which was a problem because Odom was still the 2^nd scoring option for the Lakers at the time. With him playing 3^rd fiddle now, this shouldn’t be as much as an issue as long as Gasol is drawing attention in the middle. On defense, Odom goes from playing centerfield against non-threats Oberto & Horry to having to constantly play aggressively on KG. He will be put in lots of P/R situations, and he must be able to force Rondo (or Pierce) wide while still accounting for Garnett. While I’m not the first person to say it, I think it is a major plus for LA if Odom can play Garnett to a draw.

 

Center: Kendrick Perkins vs Pau Gasol

Perkins went from simply being the 5^th starter to a potential X-factor here over the course of the Pistons series. Against a big, strong and deep Pistons front line, Perkins shined, collecting rebounds on both ends, making himself available for easy finishes down low, and even acting as a formidable defensive presence. His matchup with Gasol will be tough because he gives up so much in height, length, and most importantly, foot speed. He really needs to utilize his size and power and make his presence known. Also, as his play has gotten better, his attitude has seemingly gotten worse, and the officials have shown that they’re not afraid to T the emotional young player up. He simply can’t make that kind of mental mistake against a team as good as the Lakers.

In stark contrast to the thick and powerful Perkins is the long and mobile Pau Gasol.  Gasol gets a lot of his points on the potent LA break, having a knack for leaking out and beating all the other big men down the floor. He also has made his presence felt on the offensive boards, getting numerous putbacks throughout the playoffs. Perkins needs to be aware of where Gasol is at all times, whether it means getting back in transition or putting a body on him to keep him off the boards. Gasol will be wary of going into the wide body of Perkins, so expect him to be involved in plenty of pick and rolls with Kobe, who loves to lob it to the rim and let Gasol come down with it. He’ll also to rely on moving without the basketball as opposed to getting deep post position to score. Defensively, Gasol is playing at a very high level. I thought he did a phenomenal job of playing Tim Duncan straight up, and Perkins will most likely not give him many problems in one-on-one matchups. Just like Perkins will have to account for him on the offensive glass, Gasol will have to make sure to put a body on Kendrick and make sure he times his jumps better, as I’ve seen him misjudge far too many balls off the rim.  He makes up for bad timing with his great hands and extremely long arms, but with every possession so valuable in the Finals, he has to be more careful in regulating the defensive boards.

 

Benches:

Celtics-

Swingman James Posey will usually be the first man off the bench for Boston, and also is the most recent winner of a championship (2 years ago with the Heat) playing in this series. His main role will presumably be guarding Kobe, although I think the Celtics could also go small and let him play Odom for stretches. Offensively, Posey can’t really handle the ball against any kind of pressure, and usually just floats around the perimeter looking for 3’s.

PJ Brown has been the first big man off the bench for the Celtics, and can play alongside KG or Perkins with equal effectiveness. He has shown that he can still get it done, playing physical defense and hitting enough midrange jumpers to keep the defense honest. You can tell that he knows what’s at stake here, and I’d expect Doc to lean as heavily as ever on the 15-year vet.

I’m hoping that Doc Rivers goes with Eddie House as the backup point guard, but House’s biggest problem is his ball-handling, and Flip Saunders was able to exploit it in the last series. Every time House entered the game, Lindsey Hunter checked in as well, harassing him the entire length of the court and completely taking him out of the series. I’ve always been an Eddie House fan, who is at his best when he’s playing within himself and hitting open 3’s. The Lakers don’t have anyone like Hunter that can expend all of his energy on a guy like House, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Phil Jackson gave Jordan Farmar a try in that role. The other “point guard” on the Celtics roster is Sam Cassell, who has played so poorly the entire playoffs that it would be a crime if he played more than 15 minutes the entire series. And I’m not exaggerating.

Glen Davis and Leon Powe will probably only see action if PJ Brown struggles against the energetic Ronny Turiaf. Powe was the 3^rd big for Boston all year (Brown wasn’t on the roster yet), but somehow has gotten beaten out by the rookie Davis for the fourth position over the course of these playoffs. Davis is simply too limited to make an impact, and Powe should really be the guy here, but with Rivers at the helm you never know.

The wild card on the Boston bench is Tony Allen, who I believe is questionable for the series (constantly hearing different reports on this one). If he’s healthy, he’s a strong and physical, while a bit undersized, 2-guard who has been used to defend Kobe in the past. If he’s dressed, he’ll probably be the guy to check Kobe in end-of-quarter situations to make sure the main guys don’t pick up any unnecessary fouls, and could find himself picking up some more minutes depending on his success on Bryant. He doesn’t really offer anything on offense, however, which will be the real reason he doesn’t play much.

Lakers-

The most recognizable and probably most hated of the Lakers strong bench, Sasha Vujacic has made a name for himself for his excessive emotions, relentless energy on defense, and deadly 3-point stroke. Always an X-factor, Vujacic must step up his offensive play on the road, where he seemingly always shoots a lower percentage. It has been on defense, however, where Vujacic has earned his time, something I definitely didn’t expect. He really bothered a less-than-100% Manu Ginobili in the Spurs series, and I expect him to do the same to Ray Allen here. He loves playing in front of the home crowd, where his antics are more readily accepted and he always looks more comfortable shooting the ball. If he’s playing well on either end, Jackson will slide Kobe to the 3 and let Sasha close out games in Radmanovic’s spot. 

Luke Walton, despite his decreased playing time as Vujacic emerged as the 6^th man, is a vital cog to the Lakers strong second unit. He can handle the ball in the halfcourt, hit the midrange jumper, and crash the offensive glass. On defense, he’s a strong, active body who will likely see extended time on Pierce. Depending on his success in this area, Walton could find himself finishing some games as well.

As the only real big man off the bench for LA, Ronny Turiaf has done a fantastic job. He has been underrated and criticized his whole career, but he loves the game and plays his heart out every second he’s on the court. Against the emotional Boston Celtics, his energy and enthusiasm will be a big factor. His play hasn’t been too bad either. He did a commendable job guarding Duncan one on one, and made his presence felt on offense, even stepping out and hitting a few open jumpers. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to outplay the Boston trio of Brown, Davis and Powe, something he is very capable of doing, it will be a big plus for LA.

Backup point guard Jordan Farmar, regardless of how well he’s playing, has guaranteed minutes every night because of Jackson’s strong faith in his bench. After a disastrous series in Utah where he simply couldn’t match up with powerhouse point guard Deron Williams, Farmar was much more comfortable against the Spurs, where he had the speed to keep up with Tony Parker. Confidence is always the key to his game, and when he is feeling it (which is more often than not in the Staples Center), he can get to the rim and finish, hit 3’s, and pressure the ball defensively. Against the thin point guard rotation of the Celtics, I’m anticipating Farmar having a large impact on the series.

Final Thoughts 

As much as the Celtics rely on the “Big Three” on offense, the key is Rondo. I think he can excel against the older and slower Fisher, who will try to be physical with his much younger counterpart. That said, Pierce does almost all the ball-handling in crunch time, making Rondo less of a factor. They haven’t gone to this lineup very often, but I’d like to see Doc pull Rondo for Posey (keeping Allen and Pierce on the floor) late in games. The Celtics like to pick their spots to run, mainly because Rondo and Allen are most effective on the break, but LA has better athletes and shouldn’t have much of a problem getting back. Against the physical defenses of the East, the Celtics often had trouble early but eventually found their offensive groove. Against the Lakers faster and more active defense, the Celtics are going to have much more trouble getting easy looks.

The Lakers are going to keep doing what they’ve been doing, which is using their length on defense to get steals and deflections, fueling their fast break game. They will look to run on every loose ball they get, along with most missed baskets. They have three players (Fisher, Kobe, Odom) in their starting five who can handle the ball on the break, and everyone on their roster is athletic and committed to running. When they settle down in the halfcourt, the triangle offense, along with phenomenal passing from big men Odom and Gasol, gets the Lakers tons of easy looks. That combined with the Kobe factor makes LA extremely difficult to stop. That said, the Celtics had the best defense in the league this year, has the athletes to play with LA, and had success (even though there was no Gasol) in defending Bryant in their two early season matchups. The Celtics will lose some of their offensive rebounding (which Perkins and Rondo usually provide) in their commitment to getting back on D, and will give up a good number of offensive rebounds because of the defensive scrambling that Kobe causes, and those extra possessions on both ends could very well be the key to the series.

The one thing that really hurts the Lakers is the ridiculous 2-3-2 travel schedule. Even if they steal one of the first two in Boston, which I think they can and will do, it is extremely difficult to win all three home games in a row (Pistons and Heat both did it when winning their recent championships). Not sure it matters, because playing on the road really doesn’t faze the Lakers that much and Kobe won’t let it bother his team. Also, I’m not completely sold on the Boston home atmosphere. I know they have a phenomenal home record, but I’m not sure it’s an intimidating place to play.

I think the Lakers steal one of the first two in Boston, win two of three in LA (too hard to win all three against a team as good as the Celtics), before finishing it up in Game 6.