Tourney Time

One of the most interesting things to me about the NCAA Tournament is how there are players that can be so successful in college but just can’t fit in the NBA. At the same time, there are always great players who will be stars in the NBA who never made any noise in the Tournament. When you look back at last years tournament and NBA Draft, it’s interesting to see that the top group of players came from a mix of schools who made deep tournament runs and played in the championship game, but also has a good number of top players who didn’t lead their team to any success. 

Last year, Michael Beasley (the 2nd overall pick), OJ Mayo (3rd overall), Eric Gordon (6) and Jerryd Bayless (12) all were eliminated before the end of the first weekend of the tournament, and it clearly didn’t hurt their draft day value. Of course, if you look at the best teams from last season, you’ll see that their rosters are all filled with top-flight NBA prospects. Top overall pick Derrick Rose was the star of Memphis, who lost in the title game to Kansas, who had impact players Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur and Brandon Rush on their rosters. Also, Final 4 team UCLA had a pair of top-5 picks in Russel Westbrook and Kevin Love, and DJ Augustin led Texas to the Elite 8. Also prominant in last years tournament were twins Brook and Robin Lopez, who led Stanford to the Sweet 16, and Joe Alexander put himself into the lottery mix with a breakout performance in leading West Virginia to the Sweet 16 as well.

The point here is that when looking at your bracket, you have to look at both sides of the spectrum. Usually I would look for teams with future pros, going with the idea that the teams with the best player (or players) will generally win even if the team isn’t ranked as high as their opponent. But the new draft rule forcing everyone to play at least one year of college ball has thrown this idea off a little, because the one-and-done freshmen aren’t as invested in their teams success, and also because they might not be ready to completely lead their team in the tournament. Right now, I’m going to look at the best pro prospects playing in the tournament this year, and also some successful college players who don’t have a chance of really making it in the NBA, and what that might mean for their teams tournament chances. 

I’m going to start with what I think is the best team in the Tournament and my pick to win it all- Louisville. In this case, their success has a lot to do with the presence of 2 future NBA players, forwards Terrance Williams and Earl Clark. Williams, a senior, is one of the most complete players in the country, an powerful swingman who can impact the game on both ends without having to score or shoot that much- he reminds me of a Andre Iguodala or Ronnie Brewer in the way he can handle and distribute the ball as a point forward and hit the glass on both ends from the 2 position. Right now, Williams is thought of as a late-first round pick, but I think he would be a steal there. He still has potential, but will also be able to step in right away and contribute at the next level. Clark, a junior, is an athletic combo forward who still hasn’t reached his full potential. He’s a guy that will get drafted high regardless of his production because he has the NBA frame, wingspan and athleticism that everyone loves to talk about. In terms of pro comparisons, I think that Clark projects as a Josh Smith or Lamar Odom type, someone who can play both forward spots and, like his teammmate Williams, do a lot to impact the game without scoring. He doesn’t really have the ballhandling ability of an Odom, but he can still take the ball of the glass and bring it up himself, and is a good passer for his size. In the tournament, Clark is the perfect player to sit in the middle of the zone defense that so many teams in the NCAA love to play and create for himself and others. He projects to be a high lottery pick, and in a weak draft could even go in the top 5. As for Louisville as a team, Rick Pitino has a great system in place for his talented, athletic and deep squad, which uses all of these elements to their advantage. They press relentlessly the entire game, and the Williams-Clark tandem is extremely difficult for opponents to match up with.

The rest of the 1 seeds have plenty of pro prospects as well. Connecticut is headlined by 7’3 center Hasheem Thabeet, a game-changing shotblocker who is still pretty raw but translates into a Top 5 pick (at worst). Thabeet is flanked by a pair of NBA hopefuls in point guard AJ Price and forward Jeff Adrien. Price has the skills and outside shooting ability of a pro player, but he just doesn’t have the speed or athleticism that the better prospects do. Adrien has been a productive college player and is a great leader for a very good team, but he simply doesn’t have the size to play at the next level- he’s a 6’6 power forward who doesn’t have the wingspan or athleticism to make up for his lack of size. It’ll be surprising if he plays at the next level. As for UConn as a team, I think they might be the weakest of the top seeds- the presence of Thabeet gives them an undeniable edge against smaller teams, but as they face tougher competition they could be beatable. It’s unfortunate, but the injury to Jerome Dyson really set them back and I think won’t be enough for them to overcome.

Pittsburgh also sports a trio of NBA hopefuls, only two of which have a real chance of making it. The clear leader of Pitt is undersized point guard Levance Fields- he’s short, stocky and not too quick, but Fields controls the tempo of the game and makes shots when he has to. Fields reminds me of former UConn PG Khaled El-Amin- a great leader at the college level, but no real pro future. At first look, 6’6 center DeJuan Blair seems to be the same story- too small, not athletic enough. I thought that Blair, while a dominant college player, would have to do the Antonio Gates thing and switch to football. But Blair has a freakish 7’3 wingspan and uses his bulk to his advantage, and the fact that he’s been able to be so productive against true NBA-sized centers (such as Thabeet) makes me think that he could actually succeed in the pros. NBA scouts agree, as Blair is not considered to be a mid-first rounder. Blair really inspires confidence because he’s a hard worker but clearly enjoys playing the game- if you ever watch him play, you’ll always see him smiling and bouncing around (except when he gets in foul trouble). But the real pro prospect on Pitt is small forward Sam Young, an athletic jack-of-all-trades who sizes out to the NBA standards. He’s another guy who might actually get undervalued on draft day, but I think he projects out to a player like Andres Nocioni, a tough 3 who can do damage both inside and out while playing tough defense. Overall, Pitt is a team that has the depth and physical attitude to take any team out of their comfort zone and really slow down the tempo of the game, making it the slugfest that they prefer. In the tournament, the team that can control the tempo generally has the upper hand, and I think that Pitt can impose their will enough to make a very deep run.

The final #1 seed, UNC, might have the biggest mixed bag in terms of potential pro talent- no team in the country has as much overall talent as UNC, but none of the players on their team project to be high picks or difference-makers at the next level. On one hand, this actually helps UNC’s chances in the tournament because they function so well as a team. Carolina is obviously led by senior power forward Tyler Hansbrough, a player as controversial as JJ Redick was a few years ago in terms of pro prospects. Redick was taken higher than he should have been at #11- just ask the Magic now how they feel about that pick. This year, scouts seem to be much lower on Hansbrough, calling him a late first rounder at best, but I think it might actually be too low. Hansbrough seems similar to Udonis Haslem of the Heat- they’re similarly sized, and Hansbrough’s new mid-range game gives him the ability to make himself a threat on offense. Say what you will about him, but he’s a worker and he simply knows how to score, regardless of how awkward it might look. On the right team, he will be able to contribute in the NBA. 

UNC has a few more borderline prospects in point guard Ty Lawson and swingman Danny Green, who will both be in this years draft, as well as scoring guard Wayne Ellington, who will probably find himself in next years draft. Lawson has applied for the draft each of the past 2 years before pulling his name out, both times because he didn’t grade out high enough. Unfortunately, Lawson’s potential goes down a little every year older he is, and he hasn’t been able to answer questions about his outside shot and durability as a smaller point guard. Lawson is a smaller version of Ray Felton, which probably isn’t a good thing seeing the success (or lack thereof) that Felton has experienced. Danny Green is kind of a poor mans Danny Granger, a versatile swingman who does a lot of things well but nothing great. More realistically, he should hope that he can remind people of James Posey, someone who can come off the bench to guard multiple positions, provide rebounding and some clutch outside shooting. Finally, Ellington can do that one great thing (shooting), but falls a little short in a lot of other areas such as his size and athleticism. So where does UNC stack up in the tournament? I think that they do have the talent and depth to compete, but when they come up against teams with more size and athleticism- exactly like what happened last year when they fell to Kansas in the Final 4.