Tuesday, March 3, 2009

We're Back!

And after close to a year, I'm writing again. The plan is to be able to update this on a semi-regular basis, sometimes with full columns like this one, and other times with more brief postings regarding to specific games, things I've noticed, and other things like that.

I decided the best way to get back into blogging would be to go around the whole league with my current power rankings- basically, a combination of a teams current standings (by record) as well as how well I think they're playing in comparison to the other teams around them. I've included an overview of the team in my eyes, and some quick notes about some of the teams.

1. Los Angeles Lakers (48-12)- With Andrew Bynum in the lineup, the Lakers looked like they would cruise through the regular season. Now with Bynum hurt once again, the Lakers have simply returned to their stretch run lineup from last season and are cruising along once again. Of course, they now have to deal with the same questions as last year, and as well as the Lakers have been playing, they'll need Bynum healthy if they want to win the title. 

2. Cleveland Cavaliers (47-12)- LeBron has rallied the troops in Cleveland, and with wingman Mo Williams, an energetic supporting crew and the best home-court record in the league, the Cavs have picked up the tempo offensively and are flaunting the East's best record. LeBron is as aggressive on a night-to-night basis as he's ever been and is a more productive and efficient player as a result. And the results so far have been pretty scary- he's averaging 28, 7 & 7 while playing the best defense of his career- as well as fewer minutes per game than he's ever played. Of course, he won't be playing those reduced minutes once the playoffs come along, and when that happens, the Cavs should be even more dangerous than they already are.

3. Boston Celtics (47-14)- As the reigning league champions, the Celtics have had to deal with more scrutiny over the course of the season and consistently get the opposing team's best efforts. But the emergence of Rajon Rondo has turned the Big 3 into 4, and despite battling injuries and relying on a thin bench, the Celtics are as cohesive of a squad as their is in the league and they don't plan on going away easily. The signing of the exiled Stephon Marbury could prove to be a huge boost to the Celtics- it's easy to forget, but Marbury used to be a premier scorer, and is a big point guard who can play both backcourt positions. If he can keep his ego in check and play within the teams scheme, Marbury might be a difference maker before the year is done.

4. Denver Nuggets (39-21)- The Nuggets got more than they could have possibly expected from the now seemingly lopsided trade of Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups, and now find themselves sitting near the top of the still loaded Western Conference. The presence of Billups transformed a talented but wild group into a true team on both ends of the floor, but the real secret to Denver's success lies in the frontcourt trio of former castoffs and afterthoughts Kenyon Martin, Nene, and Chris Anderson. However, the success of that group could also lead to trouble for the Nuggets- all three of them have had injury problems throughout their careers. I think the Nuggets could really use the services of Joe Smith or Drew Gooden, who were both waived last week- another capable big would really provide good insurance to a team who I think has a good chance of competing in the playoffs.

5. San Antonio Spurs (40-19)- Without much fanfare, the Spurs are once again within striking distance of the top of the West, even though the core group surrounding their Big 3 has completely changed in just one season. This years Spurs team is more lively and resilient than recent versions of the team, and Tony Parker has shown that he is a top point guard and capable of carrying a team on his own. If Manu Ginobili is healthy heading into the playoffs, the Spurs once again look ready to make a title run. 

6. Orlando Magic (43-16)- The Magic made the jump to the upper level of the East by adding some defense to their high powered offense, fueled by the dominating Dwight Howard and the versatile pairing of forwards Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Point guard Jameer Nelson was also playing at an All Star level before unfortunately suffering a season-ending injury. The Magic are going to try to fill his void with trade-deadline acquisition Rafer Alston, and how he handles the challenge will go a long ways towards the Magic advancing through the tough top of the East. So far, it looks like Alston can't quite replace Nelson and the Magic have been a little bit inconsistent since the trade was made.

7. Portland Trail Blazers (37-22)- The Blazers seemed like a lock to turn some of their endless supply of assets into a big piece that could help put them over the top, but instead decided not to change the young and talented group that had been playing so well all year. The Blazers are extremely deep, and Brandon Roy is a legitimate MVP candidate who always gives his team a chance to win. They have obvious team chemistry, and Greg Oden is starting to show flashes of the dominant big man that he can be. 

8. Utah Jazz (37-23)- Despite missing several of their best players for long stretches of the year, the Jazz have hung around the top of the West and are now getting healthy for the first time all year. The Jazz are tough and extremely well-coached, and while he didn't make the All Star team once again, Deron Williams is as dynamic and dangerous of a player as there is in the league, and he is fully capable of carrying the team. If Boozer can return to his form of last season, the Jazz are definitely another team to watch out for in the always-crowded West.

9. Houston Rockets (38-22)- If you want to talk about teams battling the injury bug, the Rockets belong at the top of the list. They really never got their dream lineup of McGrady, Artest, Battier & Yao healthy at the same time, and now McGrady is out for the year and former starting point guard Rafer Alston is in Orlando. The Rockets are still deep and talented, and will rely on the dynamic scoring ability of new starting point guard Aaron Brooks and tough defense in the hopes of finally making it out of the first round. 

10. New Orleans Hornets (37-22)- What was supposed to be a dream season for the Hornets hasn't quite gone according to plans, but they've managed to ride the amazing Chris Paul to enough wins to keep them in the playoff hunt. Paul has made it clear that he's a superstar in this league, and the numbers that he's been putting up this year have been absolutely stunning. Unfortunately, the Hornets don't seem like the cohesive unit they were last year, and it doesn't look like Paul has enough help- a serious playoff run seems unlikely. 

11. Atlanta Hawks (34-26)- The Hawks are an enjoyable team to watch, and their starting 5 is as good as any in the league, but their bench is a serious issue- there isn't a single impact player that they can bring in to change the game, and one injury to any of their starters would crush any serious hopes of making a splash in the playoffs. It's been great to see the Hawks turn their gritty first-round series against the Celtics last season into a launching pad for this season, but they seem at risk of being in a constant cycle of mediocrity. 

12. Miami Heat (31-28)- Dwyane Wade has returned to his pre-injury, Finals MVP form and with the help of 2 impact rookies, the Heat are a viable playoff team in the East. I think the deal they made with Toronto for Shawn Marion will be a great move for them- not only do they finally get a real center in Jermaine O'Neal, but Marion had regressed to the point that the raw but athletic Jamario Moon does a lot of the same things that Marion does. When you watch the Heat play, you can tell that they all believe that they can be competitive, and really rally around Wade, who is leading the league in scoring. They're probably still another year away, but I think the returns on this remade team will come in earlier than expected.

13. Phoenix Suns (34-25)- Where do you even start with the Suns? The Suns are the most entertaining and dysfunctional team in the league, and now they're without arguably their most talented player for the rest of the season. At this point, Phoenix is going to try to play as fast as possible in the hopes of squeezing into the playoffs. Regardless of the result of this season, the Suns are in real trouble in terms of salary, and will have to shake things up even further to prevent paying the luxury tax.

15. Dallas Mavericks (36-24)- The Mavs are clinging onto a playoff spot (and the almost certain first round exit that would come with it), and seemingly have nowhere to go but down after yet another disappointing season. The core group of Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry remains productive, but it's clear that the Mavs need one more true impact player to really push them into serious contender status- hindsight is always 20/20, but it's been looking like former Mav and Eastern Conference All Star Devin Harris could have been that player. The Mavs might be ranked a little low, but they've developed a bad habit of losing to bad teams, and I really struggle to take them seriously despite their record.

14. Detroit Pistons (29-29)- At the time of the trade, I thought the Pistons came away on top, or at least no worse than where they started, but time has clearly proved that trading away Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson has hurt the Pistons. While you can't blame all of the problems on Iverson (the coaching has been awful as well), the Pistons don't really have a true identity at this point and have lost production from one of their best players (Rip Hamilton) at the expense of playing Iverson. The good news is that the contracts of both Iverson and Rasheed Wallace expire after the season, so the Pistons will have plenty of money to rebuild or reshape the team. With all of that said, the Pistons have been hot recently in Iverson's absence and if they put him on the bench and start Hamilton again, it's not out of the question for them to get hot down the stretch.

16. Milwaukee Bucks (29-33)- The Bucks are another rollercoaster of a team, as they're right in the middle of the ridiculous East playoff race, but are also without their best player (Michael Redd) for the rest of the season. The young tandem of Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva is more dangerous than you'd expect, and with a healthy Andrew Bogut they could realistically find themselves in the playoffs.

17. Philadelphia 76ers (29-30)- It turns out the best thing to happen for the 76ers was offseason prized acquisition Elton Brand hurting his shoulder- with Brand out of the lineup, the Sixers can get back to their running style that suited them well enough last year to land them a playoff spot. The bigger problem lies in the fact that the Brand signing was absolutely horrible, and now they're paying top money to Brand and Iguodala, neither of which should be the best player on a contending team. To make matters worse, they'll probably lose point guard Andre Miller to free agency in the offseason, and while Iguodala gets most of the credit, Miller is definitely the player that holds the Sixers together.

18. Chicago Bulls (27-33)- The Bulls are one of the more puzzling teams to follow, both on the court and in the front office. For years, the Bulls have passed on making big deals, choosing to instead let their large stockpile of assets continue to grow. The pick of Derrick Rose has given the team more national attention, and Rose has done nothing to disappoint so far, but the fact of the matter is that the Bulls now have too many players that are able to contribute but aren't stars. Before the All Star break, the Bulls had a small window where they could have traded for Amare Stoudamire (or maybe even Chris Bosh). But instead, the Bulls decided not to go for the home run, much as they have in past years when they missed trade opportunities for both Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol. John Salmons and Brad Miller are 2 good pieces, and for the most part the Bulls are lined up to be able to make a big free agent signing in the much-anticipated summer of 2010, but nothing is guaranteed in unrestricted free agency and it looks like the Bulls played it too conservatively once again. Seriously, could you imagine a Rose-Stoudamire combo?

19. New Jersey Nets (26-33)- The Nets are one of a handful of teams who came into this season looking simply to gain as much cap room as possible for the summer of 2010. But along the way, the Nets have thrown together a pretty good, young team. Along with Vince Carter, who has played a better all-around game this season than he has for years, the Nets are led by the surprising Devin Harris and rookie center Brook Lopez. When it's all said and done the Nets will probably miss the playoffs this season, but with the point guard & center positions set for the future, New Jersey is certainly becoming an attractive free agent destination for some of the biggest stars.

20. Indiana Pacers (26-36)- The Pacers have been another pleasant surprise this season- what looked like a disaster at the end of last season looks like a much better situation less than a year later. The Pacers have rebuilt on the fly around Danny Granger, who is a legitimate scorer and much better than I ever thought he would be, and a wide-open offense. The team is young and pretty talented, and they have some money coming off the books that will help them take another step in the right direction. They probably can't sneak into the playoffs, but they'll certainly be able to use a lottery pick as they continue to move forward.

21. New York Knicks (24-35)- If you're looking for excitement, look no farther than the new-look Knicks. Some sound front office work and the coaching of Mike D'Antoni has revived the franchise, and while all the talk still centers around the hopeful signing of LeBron in the summer of 2010, the Knicks are a very entertaining and explosive offensive team that has won a lot more games than expected this year. Nate Robinson and David Lee, two players who would be perfect complements to LeBron but might never get the chance to actually play with him in New York, have been the stars, but the real surprise has been Al Harrington. Cast away from Golden State, Harrington has played with a chip on his shoulder all year and has been hugely successful in D'Antoni's system. 

22. Charlotte Bobcats (25-35)- The Bobcats are an absolute mess and hold the fairly dubious distinction of having the most players on their roster over the course of the season. As it stands now, they actually have a decent collection of talent and seem to be willing to play for Larry Brown, but they're not positioned to do anything worthwhile either this season or down the road. In my opinion, the problems start with the fact that they're paying center Emeka Okafor star money, but really he would be the second or third-best player on a legitimately competitive team. Looking back now, it's amazing that Okafor was considered by some to be a better prospect than Dwight Howard, and what a crippling mistake taking Okafor would have been for the Magic.

23. Toronto Raptors (23-38)- It's hard to say exactly what went wrong in Toronto- GM Bryan Colangelo wanted to build his team with the same run-and-gun formula that he had success with in Phoenix, but this team just doesn't have the right pieces to do that. The Raptors biggest weakness is their play at the two wing positions- other than Anthony Parker, they don't have anyone on the roster who can really play the 2 or 3 positions successfully. Chris Bosh is still a star, and Andrea Bargnani has shown some of the promise that made him the #1 overall pick a few short years ago. The idea, following the trade for Shawn Marion, is to feature the versatile trio of Marion, Bosh and Bargnani and force other teams to match up with them. Marion is a free agent after the season, so they get a free look at how this unit will fare, but realistically I see Marion leaving Toronto and forcing the Raptors to attempt at starting over once again.

24. Golden State Warriors (20-39)- You have to love the Warriors- no matter who they have on the roster, you know that they're going to be exciting to watch every time they take the court. This year they've almost completely ditched the idea of a traditional point guard, and handed the reigns to the offense over to small forward and captain Stephen Jackson (whose idea of running an offense often involves taking the first 3-pointer available to him) or combo guards Monta Ellis and Jamal Crawford. Honestly I'm surprised that the Warriors are this bad, because offensively they can keep up with anyway. What makes them frustrating is when you see what they can be offensively- I saw them play the Lakers recently, and they were competing on the defensive end the entire game. It's not that they don't have the bodies, its just the fact that coach Don Nelson doesn't have them playing enough defense on a nightly basis.

25. Oklahoma City Thunder (15-45)- Even though they still haven't converted it into that many wins, the Thunder are a team on the rise that clearly seem to have both good young talent and, more importantly, a plan for the future. Kevin Durant is a superstar in the making who has been lighting it up every night until his recent ankle sprain. Jeff Green and rookie sensation Russell Westbrook are very good players who fit well around Durant and the three of them will surely continue to grow as a unit. The Thunder passed on the opportunity to add a legitimate young center in Tyson Chandler, but they did add a defensive minded shooting guard at the deadline in Thabo Sefolosha, which is a nice piece going forward. If they use their cap room and high draft pick correctly this offseason, the Thunder can be a serious player in the West for years to come.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves (18-41)- The T-Wolves looked like they could be a feel-good team late in the season, but losing Al Jefferson is a blow that no team in the league could cope with, especially the bottom-dwelling Wolves. The Wolves will once again look to the draft and the accompanying top-5 selection, but their draft history isn't exactly inspiring- in the past few years they've passed up on Brandon Roy and OJ Mayo for Randy Foye and Kevin Love. 

27. Memphis Grizzlies (15-43)- To me, the Grizzlies really missed on some opportunities to be a good, promising young team. They actually haven't been THAT bad, considering that they've been starting 3 rookies (OJ Mayo, Darrell Arthur & Marc Gasol) for most of the year. Mayo has put his stamp on the team and already is the clear leader, and Gasol looks like he definitely has a place in the league as a gritty center. But the bigger concerns revolve around the regression of Mike Conley and Rudy Gay, who hasn't been the dominant scorer that he looked like he would develop into last year. The Conley situation is made more problematic because the Grizzlies traded away two promising young point guards (Javaris Crittendon & Kyle Lowry) to make Conley "the man," and it hasn't worked so far. It's possible that the team envisions Mayo as a point guard down the road, but I think that puts too much pressure on him defensively, where he isn't fast enough to chase the top point guards around. As for Gay, he might be fine as a role player who does a lot of things, but the team decided to keep him instead of trading him for Amare Stoudamire, which might end up being a big miss for the franchise.

28. Los Angeles Clippers (15-46)-  The Clippers problems don't have as much to do with the talent level as they do with negative personalities, injury problems and the trust that the franchise has placed in coach & GM Mike Dunleavy. At this point, it's unclear why he still has any job with the team. Either way, the Baron Davis signing has completely backfired both on and off the court, and trading for Zach Randolph, even if it is just for cap reasons, is never a good idea. The bright spot is rookie Eric Gordon, who is yet another promising player from this years loaded draft class. He's an explosive scorer who has deep (seriously, deep) range but is still willing and able to get into the lane and finish at the rim. 

29. Washington Wizards (14-46)- My hometown Wizards have been as bad as any team in the league this year, and have a ton of money tied up in a team that might not get any better than a team that loses in the first round every year. But it's important to note that the Wizards came into the season without their starting point guard (Gilbert Arenas, who also happens to be the face of the franchise) AND their starting center (Brandon Haywood, who was coming off of the best season of his career last year). Look around the league, and ask yourself how each team would fare if they had to play the entire season without their projected starters at point guard and center. They might not all turn out as bad as this years Wizards, but either way the results wouldn't be good. Just an attempt at some positive spin on a horrible season.

30. Sacramento Kings (13-48)- You can't even count the Kings among the most disappointing teams of the season, because there were never any expectations out of Sacramento, and honestly even legitimate basketball fans would have trouble naming more than half of their roster. Kevin Martin remains the lone bright spot, and there are some promising young players on the team who could turn into real contributers down the road. I do like young center Spencer Hawes, who isn't too great defensively but is a true 7-footer who can do a lot of different things on the offensive end and learned how to be a better passer under former Kings center Brad Miller. The most important thing for the Kings, however, is to change the culture in Sacramento- the franchise seems more interested in making (or currently, not losing) money, and the teams play is a secondary motive. Until that changes, they can't get better as a team.

1 comment:

dave said...

Just wondering if you knew an ETA on Haywood's and Arenas' return?