NBA Draft- Player Analysis

With the draft coming up fast, I decided to put together some scouting reports of the players I expect to be taken in the first round. As I don't really have the resources to thoroughly scout all of the players, some write-ups are longer than others. Also, I have found that an effective tool in grading players before the draft is comparing them to a current NBA player that they either resemble as they are right now, or might develop into down the road. NBADraft.net and ESPN both do a good job of projecting players, so I tried not to duplicate too many of their projections.

All of these players are listed in the general range that I expect them to be taken, but are not my rankings. I find it pointless to rank players in a strict numerical list, as players are taken depending on a combination of one team's opinion of him, along with the needs of a certain team. I try to project the range that they will be taken, but the draft is a very inexact science, and to make it worse, there will be several trades on draft day that will further scramble the order. I will be coming out with a mock draft of sorts, trying to project not only who each team may take but also what moves they might be trying to make, before Thursday's draft. 

Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis

Derrick Rose, the 6'3 point guard from Memphis, is one of those players who is so good you're not quite sure how to explain it. In this regard, I think that the most appropriate comparison is Jason Kidd. Rose is a big, strong and fast lead guard who can do anything on the court. On defense, he uses his speed and size to shut down the opposing point guard, disrupting the opposing team's offense. On offense, Rose uses his strength and ball-handling ability to get into the lane, at which point he can finish at the rim, pull up and hit a jumper, shoot a runner (think Tony Parker), or most importantly, make the right pass to hit an open teammate. A spectacular athlete, he can soar above a crowd for a rebound and easily finish on put-back dunks or alley-oops. He always seems to make the right decision to help his team, and his desire to win has been well-documented.

I think Rose will be able to step in right away and become a top 10 point guard in the league by the end of his first year. He gives any team a chance to win right away, and will also be the centerpiece to build a team around long-term. He has publically declared that he wants to be picked first by his hometown Bulls (he grew up in Chicago), and I think that Rose would be the right pick for them.

Michael Beasley, F, Kansas State

Michael Beasley is a combo forward out of Kansas State who is simply a beast on offense. He has been called a power forward, but I don't think position really matters with Beasley- put him on the court, and he'll score points for you. Beasley is a hard player to project, because his skill set and size are fairly unique, but he falls in a similar category to Carmelo Anthony, or possibly Glenn Robinson. He is a phenomenal jump shooter who has shown that his range extends beyond the NBA 3-point line, and he can shoot off the dribble or off the catch. But Beasley can also play inside- he is extremely aggressive, taking defenders off the dribble and into the paint, where he can dunk or lay it in with either hand (think Carlos Boozer). He fights for rebounds both on offense and defense, and although he's a little smaller than originally thought (more in the 6'8 range than 6'10), he won't have any problem competing against most power forwards in the league. In watching highlights and games of his, the one thing that stands out to me about Beasley is his decision making and aggressiveness- as soon as he catches the ball, he is in attack mode. Maybe he isn't making the right decision every time, but he is very decisive, which is a great trait to have. Part of this has to do with the constant double-teams he faced in college, but he would be wise to continue to do this in the NBA as well. 

The biggest knock on Beasley is his personality and character- Beasley doesn't take himself too seriously in interviews and off the court, something that scouts have noted as a red flag. I think these claims are a non-issue- he's never had any legal issues (his biggest complaints have been about childish pranks), and most of these reports come from his high school days. But the real reason that I don't think Beasley is a character concern is because he takes the game of basketball extremely seriously. He reminds me of Rasheed Wallace in this regard- he has fun with the media, but when he's on the court he is intense and determined to play as well as he can. Beasley wants to be the best basketball player that he can be, and is completely committed to that mission. Even if the Bulls don't take him with the first overall pick, there's no way he should fall past 2.

OJ Mayo, G, USC

OJ Mayo has gone from overhyped to completely trashed, and all the way back, now sitting fairly comfortably as the consensus 3rd best player in the draft. A 6'4 combo guard, Mayo can play with or without the ball in his hands and still be effective. He is a solid ball-handler and playmaker, a very good- although streaky- shooter, and very strong for his size and age. Watching Mayo in college was almost a chore- every team he faced was geared to stop him at all costs, and on a very thin USC team, he was often harassed into poor shooting nights. But what I did see from Mayo was a toughness and commitment to defense that was never supposed to be part of the package, as well as attributes that I still don't hear when people talk about Mayo. I think a good pro comparison for Mayo is Brandon Roy- a very good all-around player who might never be a super-star, but definitely someone who will put up good numbers and help your team win. As of a year or two ago, Mayo was locked in as the first overall pick in this draft. During his year at USC, his stock took a huge hit, to the point where he would be a mid to late lottery pick. But Mayo has worked hard after the season, and most experts agree that Mayo is the 3rd best player in the draft. His draft range now is somewhere between 3 and 6, as he's definitely not falling past the Knicks at 6. There has been some talk of the Heat taking Mayo with the 2nd pick, but this would be a mistake, as he is not as good of a shot or long term prospect as Rose or Beasley. 

Kevin Love, PF/C, UCLA

Kevin Love is probably the most polarizing player in the draft. What we know about Love is that he is a hard worker who really enjoys playing basketball. He is very smart, using body positioning and footwork to score in the paint and to grab rebounds. He is also extremely skilled- he can hit an open jumper from almost anywhere inside the 3-point line, and his passing, especially the outlet pass, is as good as advertised. The problem is that Love, a natural center who was a stud there at UCLA, is extremely undersized and not very athletic. He measures out to about 6'9-6'10, and while his wide body will help him clear space in the lane, his jumping ability is extremely limited. Over the past few years, the league has gotten smaller- most teams only have one legitimate 7-footer in their starting lineup, and there has been a recent trend of under-sized power forwards making an impact (Jason Maxiell & Paul Millsap are probably the best examples). However, players like Maxiell and Millsap are extraordinary athletes who make up for their size with speed, muscle and leaping ability. There's no way that Love will ever block a Kevin Garnett dunk attempt or finish an alley-oop. Also, his outlet passes, usually resulting in a one-man fast break at the collegiate and high school levels, won't be nearly as effective in the NBA. He'll probably catch teams off guard occasionally in regular season games, but once teams realize they need to respect the deep pass on inbounds plays, it won't be a weapon any longer.

With all of that said, I think there is a place for Kevin Love in the league. The two closest examples that I could think of are Zach Randolph and Kurt Thomas. Zach Randolph has always played below the rim, and has averaged 20-10 for a season multiple times, using his body to get rebounds and his crafty shot-making ability to score points. However, Randolph has never been on a winning team, and a big part of that is his inability to defend big men who are faster and more athletic than he is. Part of that comes from his lack of effort, something that Love will never suffer from, but it has just as much to do with his physical limitations. In a league with the most advanced athletes in the world, Love simply doesn't match up. That's why I think a player like Kurt Thomas is a better comparison. Like Love, Thomas dominated at the college level before settling into a supporting role in the pros. But Kurt Thomas, relying mostly on basketball smarts and an extremely reliable mid-range jumper, has been a key part of several very good teams throughout his career.

Right now Love is predicted to go in the top 10, as early as 5th overall, which is really too high for him. Ideally, he ends up on a solid, already established team. In order to succeed, Love can't be a go-to guy (especially early in his career), and must be protected on defense with a legitimate post player. Also, he will always have to be in the best physical shape possible to even be on the same playing field as the majority of NBA players.

Brook Lopez, C, Stanford

Brook Lopez, the 7-foot center from Stanford, is a prospect who probably won't offer much more down the road than he does right now. But size sells in the draft, and Lopez legitimately measures at 7 feet tall, with great body control for someone so big. He is an offensive weapon that can play in the high post facing the basket, or play with his back to the basket, showing his arsenal of post-up moves. He has good footwork for someone his age, and also uses his long arms to create shots inside. The biggest knocks on Lopez are his athleticism (his twin brother, Robin, is a much better athlete but not as good of an all-around player) and his rebounding, which I think comes from a lack of effort (something that can be fixed with coaching). I think Lopez will be able to step in as a starter right away for most of the teams picking in the lottery, and should be able to average double-figures in his first year. He most resembles Andrew Bogut, a strong offensive player and true 7-footer who has become a very solid player in the league. His range in the draft right now is as high as 3rd overall, and probably no lower than the 9th or 10th pick. It looks like Lopez and Love will be directly competing for the first big man off the board, and it will be very revealing to see which of the two is taken first. 

Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona

Arizona's Jerryd Bayless is another one of the several combo guards expected to go early in this draft, and his stock has been on the rise since the start of the draft process. His greatest strengths are his phenomenal speed and his shooting ability, which is accurate from anywhere on the court. He really shows off his leaping ability on his jumper- he can stop on a dime and explode straight up, giving himself space and time to square his shoulders and shoot. At 6'3, he has drawn comparisons to Monta Ellis and Gilbert Arenas, because he has the ability to play point guard but is really more of a scorer and probably better suited to play shooting guard. Given the right situation, I don't think it will be much of a problem for Bayless to play the point, especially because he has great size for the position, and I have heard that several teams are interested in drafting him to be their point guard of the future. Either way, he will be able to contribute immediately at both sports, and I think the best comparison for Bayless is actually Leandro Barbosa, because of his scoring mentality, slight build (more-so than someone like Arenas), and his open-court speed. The range for Bayless is as high as 4 (he probably doesn't go before Mayo), but also no lower than 6 to the Knicks, who supposedly love Bayless and are really hoping to get their hands on him. 

Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana

Eric Gordon, who played his one year of college at Indiana, is one of the hardest prospects in the top group to predict. At 6'4, he gets grouped in with all of the other combo guards in this draft, but Gordon is really a true shooting guard. He is a great scorer but not a good ball-handler or decision-maker with the ball in his hands, and would be out of position at point guard. He is a little undersized to play the 2, but in the current NBA there are plenty of shooting guards under 6'6, so it shouldn't be a huge issue. Also, Gordon is a great athlete (40 inch vertical) and is very strongly built, especially for a guard- this allows him to finish in traffic and after contact. His jumper, which has practically unlimited range, is probably his greatest asset, and he can shoot it at any time in any situation. Defensively, he makes up for his lack of height with his strength and speed, and if he works hard he can turn himself into a plus defender capable of guarding the best guard on the opposing team every night. The comparison that is thrown around the most is Ben Gordon, but Ben Gordon is a better ball-handler who can play the point in a pinch, and is also smaller and slimmer than Eric. I think that Eric Gordon actually projects as a Ray Allen/Michael Redd type of player. Both of them were strictly jump shooters when they came into the league, and have let the rest of their game develop around their shooting ability. Gordon is still only 19, and while he will be able to step in and score right away, he has plenty of time to improve and develop the rest of his game. On draft day, Gordon can probably go as high as 6 to the Knicks or 7 to the Clippers (more likely), and probably won't fall past 10. He's more of a gamble than some of the other guards, but I think he has star potential and is definitely worth a high pick.

Russell Westbrook, G, UCLA

Russell Westbrook, the 6'3 combo guard from UCLA, might be my favorite player in the draft. Right now he is more of an athlete than basketball player, without a true position, but he projects to be a Rajon Rondo type of point guard, only with more size. He is probably the fastest player in the draft (if not, right there with Rose) and has huge hands and long arms. A lockdown defender at either guard spot, he can pressure the ball full-court against opposing points or deny the ball and chase a shooting guard off screens all day. I watched him completely shut down OJ Mayo in the USC-UCLA game earlier this year, as well as turn in great defensive performances throughout the NCAA tournament. He can immediately start, like Rondo, as a defensive specialist and open court threat, but as his jump shot improves (it really isn't that bad already), he has the potential to be a star. His draft stock is hard to predict because he still has relatively limited basketball experience- despite coming out after his 2nd year, he only played this past year at UCLA, splitting time at point guard and shooting guard. That said, he could go as high as 4th overall (before Bayless, depending on the team), but could also drop as low as 10 or 12. That said, Westbrook is probably the hottest player in the draft right now, and with teams looking to trade up to take him, it's doubtful that he lasts past the 6th or 7th pick.

Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia

The other hottest name in the draft is West Virginia's Joe Alexander. The 6'8 forward has tested out as the best overall athlete in the draft (with size, speed and strength all taken into account). Right now his game is based around his athleticism and his consistent mid-range jumper, but otherwise, he is still figuring it all out. Alexander is still relatively new to the game, but with his size and speed, I think he projects as a Shawn Marion/Andrei Kirilenko type of player who can guard multiple positions and contribute in a variety of ways. His 3-point jumper and ball-handling are both capable but still need work, and he should look to continue to improve his post game, which he first developed this past year. While there may be a few negatives with Alexander, he is still a very enticing prospect that lots of teams would love to have. His range initially looked to be late lottery, but now he looks like he could go as high as 6 (Knicks) or 8 (Bucks), and not much lower than 10- like Westbrook, his stock is helped by the fact that lots of teams are looking to trade up to get him.

Anthony Randolph, F, LSU

Anthony Randolph, the wiry-thin 6'10 forward from LSU is the hardest prospect to predict probably in the entire draft. Only 19 years old, he still doesn't even weigh 200 pounds- for some perspective, Kevin Durant weighed in at about 215 last year, and still played most of his rookie season at shooting guard. He is a good, not great athlete, but can cover a lot of ground because of his long legs. He is still strictly a face-up player, with a good jump shot and off the dribble game, but nobody really knows what position Randolph will play. Anyone who takes him is going to have to wait at least a year, if not 2, before getting any kind of contribution from Randolph- most drafts this would still make him a top 5 prospect, but with so many players ready to step in and play immediately, Randolph is going to slide a little. He has drawn lots of comparisons to a young Chris Bosh, who had similar measurements to Randolph as a rookie (other than the weight). But Bosh put up big numbers as a freshman in the ACC, while Randolph didn't really do too much his one year at LSU. While Bosh might be the right down the road comparison, right now I'd say that Randolph is more in the Brandan Wright mold. Originally Randolph was supposed to be a top 5 pick, and he still could be, but I think anyone who is taking Randolph in the lottery is really gambling- not to say he won't be a good player, but there's a very high risk/reward here, and it will be a few years before we can really know the results. 

DJ Augustin, PG, Texas

There are always players like DJ Augustin, the 6-foot point guard from Texas, who get taken lower than they should. After putting up great numbers and collecting awards in his two years in college, Augustin will have to wait for more unproven players to get their names called on draft day before he gets taken. In the NBA, size and potential trump experience and production, and Augistin won't be the first player to fall victim to this. Augustin is a true point guard who has great ball-handling skills, always makes sound decisions, is a sharp and crafty passer, and can hit the NBA 3 with consistency. The problem is his height- he is only 6 feet tall (which might be a little generous) and a good, but not explosive, athlete. That said, Augistin got a big boost when he measured very similarly (height, wingspan, standing reach) to Chris Paul. Their games are different, but with all the success that Paul has already said, it settled a lot of issues with Augistin. His style has been compared to Steve Nash, with the way he keeps his dribble alive, makes his teammates better, and hits the 3,  but Nash is bigger than Augustin (around 6'3). I'd compare Augustin to Jameer Nelson, another decorated college player who's stock was hurt because of his size. I think Augustin will be taken earlier than Nelson was, however, because he seems like a smarter player, and because the NBA is currently in a phase where everyone wants a point guard to build around. Augustin's draft range starts and ends with the Pacers and Kings at 11 & 12- both teams need a point guard, and one of them will grab Augistin to be their lead guard of the future.

Danilo Galinari, F, Italy

Danilo Galinari, the 6'9 forward from Italy, is easily the top international prospect in this years draft. In my limited exposure to Galinari, and what I've seen and read about him, he is a classic point forward- a big man who can bring the ball up the court and run an offense. He is billed as a reliable shooter and a sharp passer who doesn't offer much on the boards or on defense. I'd compare him to Mike Dunleavy (this isn't a knock on Galinari- Dunleavy has developed into a very solid player). He probably won't be a star, but will still be a good pro. The issue with Galinari, as it is with most international players, is that nobody really knows too much about him. Any numbers or tape that you can see are against a completely different level of competition, and very few teams have had the chance to see him in person because his agent is controlling his accessibility in an attempt to dictate where he is drafted. That said, he seems to have the talent to justify a mid to late lottery selection, and there are enough teams curious about him that he probably won't fall past 10.

Brandon Rush, G/F, Kansas

Kansas' Brandon Rush is a solid prospect who may not have the ceiling of some of the other players in the draft, but will be able to start from Day 1. At 6'6, he is solidly built and has great size for the shooting guard and small forward positions. Rush does a little of everything, but his sweet shooting stroke is the trait that defines Rush to teams. Aside from having the ability to easily hit NBA 3s, he is a very smart player on both ends of the ball. He has a good handle, and while he won't bring the ball up, he can navigate a pick and roll as well as any swingman. He is also a solid rebounder, and a team player who is just as comfortable carrying the scoring load as he is deferring to a teammate with a better matchup. I see him as a Michael Redd type player, who could average 20+ points per game in a starring role or contribute as a role player on a better team. The biggest knock on Rush is that he's probably already as good as he's going to get, which makes Rush especially attractive for teams that are trying to win right now, such as the Blazers, Suns, Magic and Hornets. Given that fact, I think that Rush gets taken in the early teens by a team slotted in that range or someone who trades up to get him.

Darrell Arthur, F, Kansas

Darrell Arthur, also out of Kansas, is a true 4 who has seen his stock take a hit over the last week or 2. At 6'9 he has a good, not great body for the NBA game, but is a versatile offensive weapon who could grow into a very good player. As of right now, he can hit the mid-range jumper consistently, take his man off the dribble from the high post, andis a good finisher. Like most young big men, Arthur needs to add strength, concentrate more on the defensive end and put more effort into his rebounding. I compare Arthur to another Jayhawks power forward, Drew Gooden- lots of talent but doesn't always put it together as well as he could. That said, Gooden is a solid starting power forward in the NBA, and isn't a bad player to be compared to. I think that the original projections for Arthur, the high lottery, was a bit of a stretch, and he has settled down in the 10-15 range, which is more realistic for him. Whoever gets Arthur will get spotty production from him for the first year or 2, but could find themselves with a legitimate offensive weapon down the road.

Mario Chalmers, G, Kansas

The 3rd Jayhawk expected to go in the first round is Mario Chalmers. At 6'1, Chalmers is a point guard who doesn't have the explosiveness or potential as the top guys, but I think will still be a good NBA player. He is quick but not fast, and relies on his basketball smarts instead of raw talent to make plays. He is also a strong shooter with a flair for the dramatic (just ask Memphis) and is a reliable ballhandler, but is just as comfortable playing off the ball. He is a good defensive player who collects steals by stripping his man or jumping into passing lanes. Unfortunately, at his size and speed, playng shooting guard isn't really an option for Chalmers, so he'll need to be in the right situation to make an impact. I compare him to Daniel Gibson, who is a similar build and skill set to Chalmers, and has LeBron to do the ball-handling while he spots up on the perimeter. Chalmers was originally viewed as a late first-rounder, but a few teams have been making noise about him recently, and he looks like a mid-first rounder who could even sneak his way into the late lottery, depending on how early Westbrook and Augustin get taken. 

Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State

Ohio State’s Kosta Koufos is a player who has been shooting up the boards recently. A 7’1 center, Koufos has a classic European offensive game. He has range almost out to NBA 3, but also added a more traditional low-post game during the past year. The biggest issue with Koufos is his athleticism- he does a fine job getting up and down the court, but he doesn’t get much elevation when he finishes around the basket. It’s not a huge issue since he has good body control and understands how to position himself, but it also means that he doesn’t offer much as a shot-blocker. I think he most resembles Troy Murphey, and would be best paired with a more athletic big to complement his style and skills. He has supposedly been dominating other big men in the team workouts, and will most likely be a late lottery pick.

DeAndre Jordan, C, Texas A&M

DeAndre Jordan, the 7-footer from Texas A&M, is the classic case of size selling in the draft. Someone of his size and athletic ability should have dominated in high school and in college, but he spent most of his time at Texas A&M on the bench, unable to even produce against teams without any players close to his size. That said, Jordan is huge, and has the ridiculous wingspan that scouts are looking for. Wherever he is taken, it will be at least 2 years before Jordan can be a regular contributor. He has drawn comparisons to Dwight Howard coming out of high school, but Jordan isn't nearly the physical specimen that Howard is. A better comparison is Andrew Bynum- very mobile for someone that size, but still has a ton to learn about the game. Before his injury last year (his 3rd year), Bynum looked like he had put it together and become a legitimate starting center, so there is hope for Jordan, and that fact alone will give teams faith when drafting him. That said, Jordan doesn't seem to have the drive or work ethic to make himself better, and for someone who has so far to go, taking him is a big risk. Initially he was looked at as a top 5-7 pick, but now he might not even get picked in the lottery. Jordan is an example of everything that is wrong with the draft process, but it seems that teams are more aware of that now than they ever have been, and I think Jordan will end up being taken in the late teens or early 20s.

Robin Lopez, F/C, Stanford

Robin Lopez, the twin brother of Brook, does basically everything that his brother doesn't. Robin plays an Anderson Varejau type of game, based around hustle and energy. He works hard on the defensive end, showing hard on screens, actively looks to block shots and works hard for rebounds. His offensive game is currently limited to put-back dunks and beating his man down the floor for easy baskets, but if Brook's play is any indication, he still has room to be a reliable offensive player. Although his stock is somewhere in the late teens/early 20s, I think that Robin will be a very good player- unlike most hustle guys who play down low (like Varajau), Robin is a legit 7-footer. Teams who don't need another offensive weapon, such as the Wizards or Warriors, should really give Robin Lopez a look.

Donte Greene, F, Syracuse 

Donte Greene, the 6'9 forward from Syracuse, is another player who could have used another year in college. He has a good body, is very athletic, especially for his size, and is a great 3-point shooter. But at this point, that's really all Greene brings to the table. He has some versatility, as he can play either forward spot, but he might also be a tweener who isn't quick enough to guard 3s and isn't strong enough to guard 4s. That said, the potential is there, and there's always a place in the league for someone that size who can shoot from distance. He reminds me of Rashard Lewis, who came straight from high school, and has become a good player. Greene seems like the Warriors type of player, and that's probably the earliest he could get picked. If he doesn't go there or to the Suns at 15, he might have a bit of a wait, as most of the teams picking in the teens are trying to win now. If he stayed in school another year with a good, young Syracuse team and worked on his post game and attacking off the dribble, he could have been a top 5-10 pick next year.

Marreese Speights, F/C, Florida

Marreese Speights is a 6'10 center from Florida. He is a strongly built player who moves well for his size, and already has a fairly developed post game. He is a good defender, and uses his huge hands to rebound well on both ends. The problems with Speights that he isn't quite big enough or a good enough athlete to play center full-time, and his face-up skills and defensive mobility isn't quite good enough to play power forward full-time. That said, Speights has enough talent to get him on the court, and I'm sure that he will be able to produce immediately on the right team (Sixers come to mind) while expanding his game. There are several other players with his size and skill set that have made an impact in the league, the best of which is Elton Brand. Assuming Speights works hard, there's no reason he can't be as good as Brand. However, teams don't seem to be too sure about Speights, and his draft stock has fallen into the mid to late teens. Whoever takes him probably won't get too much production right away, but could end up with a great post player in a league where true post men are becoming a rarity.

Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky

Courtney Lee, a 6’5 shooting guard from Western Kentucky, is an interesting prospect to me. He was billed as a first-round prospect all season, and his team made a surprising run in the NCAA Tournament as a 13th seed. However, Lee really wasn’t a huge difference maker in the tournament- his teammate Tyrone Brazelton (also in the draft but not expected to be taken) was the one carrying the team. That said, there are several teams in the late first who have been working out Lee, and it seems like he will certainly be taken in somewhere in the 20s. He is a solid athlete, a good shooter who is noted for his quick release, and is also a capable ball-handler. Given his size and skill set, I think he projects to be a Cuttino Mobley type of player. Depending on the team, he should be able to step in and play right away.

JaVale McGee, C, Nevada

JaVale McGee, out of Nevada, is another young 7-footer who is at least a year away. He is a great athlete for a 7-footer, probably the fastest in the draft, but doesn’t have an NBA-ready body yet. His offensive game isn’t really developed yet either (notice a trend?), although he does have a reliable jump shot with decent range (reportedly out to college 3s). He is a good shot-blocker and rebounder, but he still relies too much on his athleticism and size as opposed to strength and position- that won’t work at the pro level. Down the road I could see him as a center in the Pau Gasol mold, but it will be several years before he reaches that point. His position in the draft is pretty unpredictable- he could be anywhere from the mid-teens through the end of the first round. But there are enough teams that could use a big, skilled center, and someone will grab him before he falls too far. 

Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown

Georgetown’s towering 7’2 center Roy Hibbert is a player who’s stock has been all over the place for a solid two years now. After being practically guaranteed a top-10 pick last year, he pulled out of the draft to return for his senior year at Georgetown. Now he will most likely be taken in the early teens, but it seems like teams are considering taking Hibbert over some of the less established bigs. He doesn’t have star potential, but he is a known commodity who will be able to step in as a regular contributor, and even a starter for some teams, right away. Hibbert’s biggest issues are that he is not a good athlete, is not very strong, and isn’t as dominant of a defensive presence as he should be. Offensively, however, Hibbert is a very good passer for a big man, and can work out of the high or low post with a face-up and post-up game. If he continues to get more range on his jumper, I think that Hibbert could have a solid career as a Zydrunas Ilgauskas type of player.

Chris Douglas-Roberts, G/F, Memphis

Chris Douglas-Roberts, the 6'7 swingman from Memphis, is volume scorer expected to go late in the first round. CDR has an unorthodox game that reminds me of Antawn Jamison or Tayshaun Prince, only as a perimeter player. He is a slasher who uses a variety of scoop shots, runners and a streaky jump shot to score points. His unconventional game and wiry build (which is very similar to Prince as well) doesn't make CDR a soft player, however. He is an aggressive competitor who does what it takes to win- usually this means scoring, but in the National Championship game against Kansas, Douglas-Roberts took on the task of guarding Brandon Rush the entire game. I'm not really sure how his game will translate into the NBA, but I think that he will be able to use his creativity to remain an effective scorer. It looks like he will be drafted in the late first round, which I think is a good thing for CDR, because it will allow him to find a niche as a bench scorer who doesn't have too much pressure on him.

The Champs

Truly an amazing season for the Celtics. They were the best team in the league since the first week of the season, and even though they struggled a little at the beginning of the playoffs, they proved how dominant they were against the West's best team in the Lakers. Because of the way the Celtics turned their fortunes around- trading a ton of assets for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, two proven stars- I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one team try to pull off something similar this off-season. Also, since the Celtics won with such a dominant defense, I'd also expect several teams to really try and commit themselves on the defensive end over the summer. The NBA, like the NFL, is a copycat league, and when one team proves they can win a certain way, other teams are bound to follow. 

As for the "Big 3" that Boston put together, I think this season and championship really solidifies the legacies of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, who were all All-Stars many times over but had never even reached the NBA Finals before this year. 

Ray Allen put his name in the short list of the best shooters of all time. He already held the single season record for most 3 pointers made, as well as being second on the all-time list, and his 22 3's in the Finals was a Finals record. It also showed that while he could never win a championship if he was the team's best player, that he was capable of carrying a team for stretches, as he did for this Celtics team, as well as being a vital cog in a championship team. 

Kevin Garnett has his place in history as one of the most dominant big men of all time, especially on the defensive end. Although his record of getting it done in the postseason still isn't phenomenal- there were times throughout the playoffs where the Celtics really needed more from KG- his 26 points and 14 rebounds in the Game 6 clincher really went a long way in quieting those critics. But more importantly, it was because of Garnett that the Celtics were the best team in the league in the regular season. He changed the culture in Boston, adding an intimidation factor as well as a tremendous defensive presence that really made them a force to be reckoned with.

Finally, Paul Pierce firmly added his name as one of the greatest Celtics of all time. Already high up statistically for most of the franchise's records, Pierce put together one of the most remarkable playoff runs in Celtics history. Boston is the only place that Pierce has ever played, and he takes great pride in being a Boston Celtic. In this era of the NBA, it is extremely rare for any player, let alone a star player, to be on one team his entire career. Besides Pierce, the only players that I can think of that have played for the same team in their career (minimum of 8 years) are Kobe with the Lakers, and Tim Duncan on the Spurs. KG fell into that category before this season, and there are a handful of players in the 5-6 year range, but to do it for as long as Pierce has is really hard to do. It was a tremendous accomplishment for Pierce, and I know that there's nobody happier than him right now.

Can they do it again next year? Before the inevitable off-season shakeup, my best guess is that the Celtics will at least make it back to the Finals next season. The Big 3 probably has one, maybe 2 good years left in them, and their other 2 starters, Rondo and Perkins, are only going to get better. But it is very likely that they lose the invaluable James Posey, and they probably won't have PJ Brown or Sam Cassell back either. That said, I can't see their win total dropping too far below 60, if at all, and certainly see them as the team to beat right now.

Games 5/6

And here we go, back to Boston. The Lakers broke out to another big lead early in the game, only to watch Paul Pierce and the Celtics even it up by halftime. From there, we were treated to some high-intensity, although sloppy, basketball, and the Lakers had just enough to hold off the Celtics for at least one more game. Here are some notes that I took, as well as some thoughts leading up to Game 6 in Boston tomorrow night.

Lamar Odom & Pau Gasol, revisited

The highly criticized duo of Odom and Gasol certainly weren’t flashy, and they certainly don’t inspire confidence all the time, but the two of them simply got it done in Game 5. Both had almost 20 points (Odom 20, Gasol 19) and 10+ rebounds, and for the first time, both looked aggressive playing down low. Even though Kobe led the Lakers in scoring with 25, the Lakers wouldn’t have made it to Game 6 without Odom and Gasol. Gasol looked much more comfortable down low without the big body of Kendrick Perkins to worry about, getting Kevin Garnett into early foul trouble and consistently drawing attention down low the rest of the game. Odom was able to simplify things on offense, taking what the defense was giving him, both inside and out- several times he was able to sneak open under the basket for easy lay-ins.

Although it’s rare to see from them, Odom and Gasol dug in and played tough, physical games on both ends of the floor. They let up far fewer offensive rebounds than the first few games of the series, something the Celtics had been thriving on, and Odom finally showed some emotion, getting in the face of James Posey late in the 4^th.  It’s interesting, but it seems that they really feed off of each other- either they both are playing well, or neither is.

I said it before Game 5, and their performance in that game only solidified it- the Lakers need strong efforts from both Odom and Gasol if they want to win. They delivered on their home court, now let’s see if they can do it on the road.

The Lakers version of Smallball

I loved the move that Jackson made, going with a 2-point guard lineup of Jordan Farmar and Derek Fisher down the stretch, with Kobe sliding over the 3. I’ve said several times that Farmar has played very well this series, and generally been the most competent member of the Lakers problematic bench. This alignment works because Farmar has such great speed, especially against Eddie House and Sam Cassell, and he used it several times to get to the basket. Defensively, Fisher is strong enough to guard shooting guards, and he’s done a good job on Ray Allen the past few games. Last season, when he was on the Jazz, Fisher actually started most of the season as their shooting guard (alongside Deron Williams), so he has experience in this role. As long as the Celtics continue to use a backcourt of House or Cassell with Ray Allen, we should see more of this lineup from the Lakers.

Can anyone guard Paul Pierce?

Paul Pierce is simply playing amazing basketball right now, which left me asking myself, is there anyone out there who can guard Paul Pierce? I don’t just mean on the Lakers, because they clearly don’t have anyone up to the task (and no, Kobe can’t guard Pierce, even if he did pick his pocket late in Game 5), I mean in the entire league. Sure, Pierce only averaged 20 points a game this year, and for his career he’s a 23-point per game scorer, so it’s not like he’s the most dominant scorer in the league. But over the course of these playoffs, and especially in the Finals, Pierce has simply been unstoppable. He is a strong ball-handler, can shoot it from anywhere on the court, is extremely strong in the post (and high post), and can finish around the basket, even after contact. He keeps the defense off-balance with his hesitation and spin moves, and once he gets a step on his man, he doesn’t get caught from behind. He is too strong and physical for quicker defenders like Kobe or Bruce Bowen, and but too quick for bigger defenders like Andrei Kirilenko or Josh Smith.

With a little help, I came up with a very short list of players who would be best suited to guard Pierce. The leading candidate, and one of my favorite players, is Shane Battier, who has the size, lateral quickness and most importantly, the intelligence to stay with Pierce. Some other alternatives would include Gerald Wallace of the Bobcats and Ron Artest of the Kings. Before these playoffs, I would have listed LeBron and Tayshaun Prince, but Pierce has proven that neither could effectively guard him for a complete game.

So where does this leave the Lakers? Personally, I’m surprised that they haven’t given Lamar Odom any time on Pierce, just to try to use a much bigger body on him without sacrificing quickness. But Odom isn’t a great individual defender and prone to picking up cheap fouls, and LA needs him on the floor as much as possible. Luke Walton hasn’t even come close to staying with Pierce, and Radmonovic hasn’t had any success on him either. Ariza has had some solid stretches, so I’d expect him to see more time guarding Pierce for the rest of the Finals, and Kobe has done a respectable job, but it takes a real physical toll on Kobe to guard Pierce for the whole game. Since there isn’t one real solution, I think that Jackson just needs to have a fresh body on Pierce as much as possible before Kobe picks him up down the stretch. Also, they need to stop letting Pierce finish at the rim- when he draws contact, it needs to be hard contact, maybe putting him on the floor a whole time. It’s more likely that Pierce has a good game than Allen or Garnett, so shutting him down (or at least slowing him) is a real key for a Lakers win.

The James Posey Factor

When you’re serious about building a championship caliber team, there are certain players who you want who just do what it takes to win. Robert Horry has made a living in this role. Off the top of my head, Steve Kerr, Byron Russell (even though he never won a championship), even Stephen Jackson also make the list. You can add James Posey as well. Already having won a championship with the Miami Heat 2 years ago, Posey has been a huge difference-maker in this series. He is fearless on both ends of the floor, taking and making big 3s on offense, stepping in for charges on defense. Playing both forward spots (he has seen extended time at the 4 because he matches up so well against Lamar Odom), he is a legitimate pest with his help defense, and also with his scrappy play after the whistle. Odom in particular has been getting upset about Posey’s physical play, leading to a near-altercation in the 4^th quarter of Game 5. Not only is he comfortable with his bench role, but he embraces it. Watch the Celtics before they step onto the floor for tip-off. Posey greets each player with a long (maybe too long) hug and shouts some motivational words at them before they take the floor. When a player is down, or has made a mistake, he always seems to be the first one in their ear (there was a moment where Perkins had picked up a cheap foul earlier in the Finals and Posey was on the bench chewing him out). This is the NBA Finals, and he’s not worrying about hurting anyone’s feelings, he’s there to win.

On a side note, Posey is a free agent after this season and his postseason efforts are not going unnoticed. Even though he seems very loyal to this Celtics team, I wouldn’t be surprised if a veteran team looking for a leader to put them over the top offers him a lot of money, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Posey takes the deal. Just something to look out for.

Phil Jackson and the Lakers Bench

Billed as the better of the 2 benches before the series started, the Lakers bench has been a complete non-factor in the Finals (pretty sure this isn’t the first time I’ve written this, but it continues to amaze me how poorly they’ve played). Luke Walton needs to be cut out of the rotation. It’s almost like Phil Jackson doesn’t want to hurt Walton’s feelings, because that’s just his coaching style. But Walton hasn’t helped the Lakers on either end of the floor, and with only 2 games left in the season (at most), his playing time should be reduced dramatically or cut out completely. I bring up the Walton case because it shows how Jackson has really been unable to manage his bench effectively throughout this series. Yes, they are short of big bodies. Turiaf isn’t big enough to bang with the Celtics, and his relentless energy is negated by a Celtics team that always plays with that kind of energy and emotion. Chris Mihm might be big enough, but he hasn’t played in months and really looked rusty in his few minutes in Game 5. I actually liked the gamble by Jackson of putting Mihm in, however, because he was at least trying to shake things up.

I think Trevor Ariza needs to see more minutes (not the first time I’ve said this either), because he’s an active and athletic body on defense who has been doing a good job on hustle plays and loose balls as well. He should be taking Walton’s minutes, as well as Radmonovic’s. To me, Radmonovic is one of the most frustrating players to watch. He certainly does have talent, and his three-point stroke really is great, but he is way too soft, and never really seems into the game. I was saying in Game 5 that he plays a preseason game and a game in the Finals with the same amount of effort. I think that Phil has been too kind to him as well, and needs to get him off the floor when he has any mental lapses. The one bright spot has been Jordan Farmar, who has played relatively well in every game, and has always been aggressive on both ends. Between him and Sasha Vujacic, the Lakers have 2 options to close out games alongside of Fisher, Kobe, Odom and Gasol. Whichever of the Farmar-Vujacic pairing is playing better should get the nod down the stretch.

Game 6 Prediction

Even though the Lakers have still not looked convincing in either of their wins, they still have a few things going for them. The Celtics are legitimately banged up and with the quick turnaround, the health situation isn’t going to get much better. I’ve heard that Perkins will probably miss Game 6 as well, and Paul Pierce just played the full 48 minutes (a few seconds less) before hopping on a cross-country flight. Also, the Lakers big men are coming off of their best games of the series, and they showed some resilience on the defensive end as well. And of course, they still have Kobe Bryant. He hasn’t been the best player in the series so far (easily Pierce), but he’s still the MVP and everyone’s consensus Best Player in the World. He’s shown how hot he can get, and I’m expecting him to feed off of the rowdy Boston crowd for a vintage performance.

That said, the Celtics have played too well and won’t lose two games at home. The Lakers haven’t shown that they can even contain Paul Pierce, and Garnett won’t have as poor of a game at home as he did in LA. The Celtics have just been the better team, and their defense is too good for the Lakers. I’m predicting a Game 6 and series victory for the Celtics.

Game 4 Thoughts, Game 5 Pre-Game

What more is there to say? The biggest comeback in Finals history, the Big 3 live up to their name, and Doc Rivers makes all the right moves. Now the Boston Celtics are one game away from the title, while the Lakers have barely put up a fight.

Before the series, this matchup was billed as the league’s best offense (Lakers) against one of the best defensive teams in the history of the NBA (Celtics). There’s a saying in baseball that good pitching always beats good hitting. In basketball, the same holds true to defense over offense. In Game 4, however, the vaunted Celtics defense took a while to show up, apparently not ready for the emergence of Lamar Odom (playing with newfound aggression) and the intensity that the Lakers brought on both ends the entire first half. So after spotting the Lakers a 20+ point lead, the Celtics decided to go to work. There was a turning point in the 3^rd quarter where you could see the Celtics flip the switch. Using a small-ball lineup of Eddie House at point (instead of a clearly slowed Rajon Rondo), James Posey at the 4 and Garnett at center, the Celtics started swarming to the ball, extending their defense to half court and clearly making the Lakers uncomfortable.

As they started to make their comeback, there was one specific play which I thought really was the beginning of the end for the Lakers. Ray Allen (who has had an amazing series, but more on that later) had a fast break lay-up with only one man, Derek Fisher, to beat. Fisher gave him a hard foul, sending Allen to the floor, and making him earn the points at the free throw line. One or two possessions later, the same thing happened, with Ray Allen leaking out, leaving only Vlad Radmonovic to beat. Radmonovic is 6’10, compared to Allen at only 6’6, but Radmonovic decided simply run under Allen, hoping to distract him. Ray was able to cleanly lay it in, and while the lead was cut to only 10 or so at that point, it highlighted everything wrong with the Lakers. In the regular season, that type of move would have been fine for Radmonovic to pull. But in the NBA Finals, Vlad should have put Allen on the ground, maybe even intentionally earning a flagrant foul. That play, to me, exemplified everything wrong with the Lakers. They are simply a softer team.

At this point of the season, after everyone has been playing for so long, it comes down to who wants it more, and who can go and take the game for themselves (sorry to use clichés here, but stay with me). My point is that the Celtics seemed more motivated and more equipped to win the title. Kobe looks out of gas, and nobody else on the Lakers really inspires much confidence when the game is on the line. In crunch time, the Lakers seem to regress into the Lakers of the past two years, as opposed to the championship-caliber that we saw this year.

Some keys from Game 4 (and looking ahead to Game 5)…

Ray Allen & Paul Pierce

Both known as pretty much one-dimensional scorers their whole careers (Allen moreso than Pierce), Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have turned in complete games the entire Finals so far (except for Pierce in Game 3). Pierce has been getting it done on both ends the entire playoffs, and in Game 4, Pierce switched onto Kobe for the entire second half, bodying him on defense while scoring against Kobe on the other end. The signature moment was Pierce cleanly rejecting a turnaround jumper by Kobe, one of those things that you will rarely see happen, if ever. Allen, after an up-and-down playoffs where some questioned if his career was over, has found his way in the Finals. In Game 4, he played the entire 48 minutes, did a good job guarding Kobe in the first half while still making plays on offense. Not only that, but Allen grabbed 9 rebounds and scored the sealing basket on an isolation play. There’s a reason that Allen is part of the “Big 3,” and right now he’s reminding everyone why.

Lamar Odom & Pau Gasol

Odom and Gasol are both great players. They’ve proven this throughout their respective careers, and one bad series isn’t going to change that. In Game 4, we even got a glimpse of what makes them so great- in the open court, there might not be a better big man pairing than these two. But other than a solid first half of Game 4, Odom hasn’t really shown up, and has found himself on the bench at the end of Games 2 and 4. Gasol, on the other hand, simply can’t stand up to Garnett. He’s had his moments, but the one thing that has really surprised me about Gasol are his hands. For whatever reason I’ve never really thought of Gasol as having bad hands, but there are points where I’m surprised if he DOES make the catch. This is the one thing that makes Kobe more upset than anything, when he makes a play and Gasol can’t finish.

If the Lakers want to even take this series back to Boston, they need both of their star big men to be on the floor contributing the entire game. I’d attempt to break it down further, but at this point I think it simply comes down to playing well or not playing well. Right now, neither is playing well, and until either of them shows that they can play like they are capable, there’s no point in going into any more details.

Doc Rivers & Phil Jackson

It’s been well-documented in the past few days, but the coaching effort by Doc Rivers has been fantastic. He finally found the perfect lineup to use against the Lakers (detailed above). This works because the Lakers biggest weakness is at point guard (nobody to really bother House) and because Posey is big and fast enough to effectively guard Odom. Remember that the Celtics are the team that has been much more banged up, and Rivers is still finding the right combos despite missing two of his best players. I’d expect Rivers to go with the House-Allen-Pierce-Posey-Garnett lineup more in Game 5 until Jackson finds a way to counter it.

Phil Jackson, the 9-time champion, hasn’t looked good at all this series. Part of the problem is his personnel- the Lakers really don’t have enough size to match up with the Celtics, and he doesn’t have any quality big men to spell Odom and Gasol, forcing them into longer minutes even though they aren’t really doing anything to help the Lakers. The Ariza move was great in the first half of Game 4, and I’d expect Ariza to see extended minutes again in Game 5, but you would think that Jackson would have another wrinkle that he would break out. One thought would be to go big against the Celtics, playing Kobe at the point (especially since Farmar and Fisher really aren’t giving them much), Ariza (or Vujacic, depending if they wanted more offense or defense) at the 2, and the trio of Odom, Turiaf and Gasol all at the same time. Since Kobe, Ariza, Odom and Gasol are so athletic (something that is true no matter how well or poorly they’re playing), they could get away with something like this without sacrificing their open court game. Kobe is basically playing point anyway, especially in crunch time, so this really isn’t that radical of a move. Phil has earned the right not to be questioned, but he certainly hasn’t made an impact from the bench so far in the series.

Prediction

Even though the Celtics look like they have this thing all wrapped up (when they stole Game 4, I said that they just won the championship), but I think that Kobe is simply too proud to lose the series on their home court. No team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit, and this doesn’t look like the squad that will do it, but I think the Lakers have at least one more win in them. Look for a classic Kobe performance in another hard-fought game, before the Celtics win it in Game 6. 

The Donaghy Scandal

I've found that the NBA, more than any sport, has a way of attracting headlines during the off-season, something which I plan to take advantage of in the next several months as I continue this blog. Last summer, the initial Donaghy scandal (where he was found guilty of fixing games for the mob) stole headlines in the middle of the off-season. The summer before (maybe 2?), David Stern made news when he set the new dress code for players. This year, however, the news couldn't wait, instead interrupting one of the most-hyped NBA Finals in a long time. Disgraced former official Tim Donaghy threw everyone into a frenzy just before the game last night with his allegations that the NBA (read: David Stern) had Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals, between the Kings and Celtics, fixed, making sure that the Lakers won, therefore sending the series to a Game 7. Now, of course, having a series go seven games is the best possible situation for the league. Regardless of the interest level for the series as a whole, the do-or-die urgency of a Game 7 is an event nobody wants to miss. Also, it is always good for the league if the Lakers advance in the playoffs. AND, to make matters worse, the Lakers had a huge free throw advantage in that fateful Game 6 (27-9 in the 4th quarter alone). These are all things that will give the allegations some weight.

Donaghy is not the first person to claim that the NBA fixes games, or at least has a say in the outcomes. I said in this space a few days ago that I thought the Boston Celtics had an unfair advantage in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. However, there is a difference between bad officiating, something that I think IS a legitimate problem in the league right now, and fixing games, something that would absolutely ruin a sport who's image is already hurting. The NBA has always attracted conspiracy theorists, and always will, but it has never endured a scandal that could threaten the future of the sport like this potentially could. Depending on how this plays out, the NBA could very well lose the remainder of their already dwindling fan base.

With all that being said, it is my position that Donaghy's accusations are false. Lets start with the fact that Donaghy is simply a bad guy, a CONVICTED CRIMINAL who was caught fixing games after being in debt to the mob. He is simply trying to bring the NBA down with him, when in reality he was acting entirely independently in fixing games, and has no one to blame but himself. Also realize that Donaghy was not a referee of the game in question. While he was an active ref at the time, he had nothing to do with that game.

I was able to find the box score from that specific Game 6, and there were a few things that I found interesting. While the 4^th quarter free throws were overwhelmingly lopsided towards the Lakers, the free throw numbers for the game were 40-25 (favoring the Lakers). Obviously not the closest of margins, but when you compare that to the 38-10 difference from Game 2 a few nights ago, it really isn’t that bad. Also, it’s important to remember that the 2002 Lakers had Shaquille O’Neal towards the end of his prime, playing a home game for the two-time defending champions. They deserved the respect, and as we’ve seen in this series anyway, you’re going to get more calls at home. Shaq, especially then, was harder to objectively officiate than maybe anyone else the league has ever seen. There was so much contact on every play that he was involved in, that either he had to be called for an offensive foul, or the man guarding him would be called for a foul. Along with that, it was actually a sound strategy to foul him and not letting him shoot, taking your chances with him at the free throw line. And if that wasn’t enough, they had a young Kobe Bryant entering his very long prime, and this was the version of Kobe who wouldn’t settle for outside jumpers as much as he does now, but the Kobe that took the ball to the hoop as much as possible. So while Donaghy may have picked a specific game to target, which was definitely shaky in the way it was called, if you looked back at those years, I’m sure you would find that Lakers had an overwhelming advantage at the free throw line in most games they played in.

I’ve brought up this series many times in this report, and I want to clarify that as upsetting as the calls were to me in Game 2, I would never think that an NBA game was being fixed. When you use that word, it means the outcome of the game was determined, as much as possible, beforehand. One more ringing endorsement for the league comes from one of David Stern’s harshest critics, Dallas Mavericks’ owner Mark Cuban, who has been fined a total of $1,665,000 by the league (seriously) during his time as owner. Cuban said, in an email to ESPN, that "There's no way on God's green Earth that David Stern has ever done anything to influence the outcome of a game." For someone who has spent years criticizing Stern's every move, there isn't a stronger supporting statement for the state of the league than that. 

Like I said, this is a bad situation for the league, however it turns out. But instead of wallowing in the past, and allegations from an admitted criminal, all we can do is look ahead to a league that has more promising young talent than it has in a long time, with the best USA Basketball team since the original Dream Team competing in the upcoming Olympic games, and the NBA Finals between the two best teams in the league about to go to Game 4. I for one am excited for the direction that the league is going, and I really hope that I'm not alone here. 

As usual, thanks for reading, and please feel free to weigh in on both this specific column or the blog in general.

Game 3 Thoughts

Trying to keep things a little quicker tonight....

So the Lakers pulled it out in a strangely anti-climactic game. I kept waiting for someone to seize the game, as Kobe eventually did, but I don't think the Lakers want to be in another game in the 80s while they're in LA. Kobe really asserted himself from the beginning, taking it hard to the rim as much as possible. He ended up taking a good amount of midrange jumpers, but most of those came after he had established that he wasn't going to settle. He also worked hard at drawing fouls, despite uncharacteristically missing 7 or 8 free throws. And of course, when the game was on the line, Kobe abused Ray Allen two trips in a row to put the game out of reach.

Besides the aggressive play of Kobe Bryant, the biggest thing for the Lakers was the improved bench play. Turiaf and Walton didn't really put their stamp on the game, especially Walton, who really just looks overmatched out there at this point. However, Farmar, Vujacic and Ariza all played very well and ended up being the difference in the game. Farmar, I thought, played better than Fisher on the night, and really deserves more minutes when he's playing that well. Ariza did a good job defensively and on the boards on both ends. He's a big, athletic player who can really help out when he's playing under control- I like that Phil has been giving him minutes. And of course, there's Vujacic. Like I said in my series preview, Vujacic just loves playing at home. His antics are appreciated, instead of drawing boos, and he always shoots a better percentage. He is a complete pest to whoever he's guarding on defense, and he ended up making the biggest play of the game with a corner three down the stretch. The Celtics were gambling by doubling Kobe as soon as he crossed half-court, essentially opting to play 3 on 4 basketball, and Vujacic made them pay with the three pointer. After that, they had to play Kobe straight up, which is when he beat Ray Allen for those late baskets.

Oddly, the stars for both teams didn't really show up tonight. Out of the Celtics "Big 3", only Ray Allen played like he was a star, and Garnett joined the show late in the game. Pierce was a non-factor throughout. It's really refreshing to see Allen play well- people, myself included, forget how good he used to be and can be. In transition he's an absolute terror because of his ability to spot up and hit the three. As for the Lakers main three, only Kobe really made an impact. Gasol was especially troubling, because he really didn't play with any confidence and really was a liability at points. Odom gets himself in trouble with cheap fouls, and today was no different. Going on and off the court really hurts his ability to get into any kind of rhythm, but he finally got it going towards the end, taking it hard to the basket, and setting himself and others up for easier looks. Still, the lack of depth at the 4/5 is a huge problem for the Lakers, because all 3 big men of theirs are prone to foul trouble, and none of them really have the size/strength combo to match up with the Celtics. 

After these first three games, the one thing that struck me the most is how good the Celtics really are, or more accurately, how much I underestimated them. The Celtics are for real. Their great defense keeps them in every game, and they have enough firepower to make timely runs. And the fact that they were in this game without any contributions from their best player in the Finals so far (Pierce) really speaks to how good they are. 

One more thing that I thought was interesting about the game was the way it ended. The Lakers were up 87-81 with the ball and 20 seconds left, and the Celtics just let them play it out. At this point, NONE of the Lakers had been shooting free throws well, this includes Kobe, and yet, the Celtics let them just play it out. You always wish that teams would do this, but to see it actually happen, especially in the Finals, it just didn't seem right, almost like they gave up too early. Even if they had fouled they probably wouldn't have won, but I still think they should have tried.

However it ended, the Celtics are now up 2 games to 1 going into Thursday's Game 4. For me, not too many questions were answered- this was a sloppy game where Kobe really shined in the beginning and down the stretch, Ray Allen kept the Celtics in it, and the Lakers bench showed up for the home crowd to help them pull it out. If that style of game breaks out again, I'm not sure the Lakers win it. They really need some help from Gasol, and a complete game from Odom. I'd also expect Jackson to mess with his bench a little, giving a few more minutes to Ariza and Farmar, and taking some away from Walton. 

More thoughts to come before Game 4. 

Game 3 Pre-Game Thoughts

Some keys for tonight’s game: 

Rebounding

One of the biggest problems for the Lakers (and there have been several) so far has been the Celtics large rebounding edge. Gasol and Odom are explosive open-court athletes, but so far they just haven’t been getting it done on the glass. Unfortunately, this isn’t entirely their faults, as they simply don’t have the size and body types to bang down low with the likes of KG, Perkins, PJ Brown and Leon Powe. Considering that the only other big man for the Lakers, Ronny Turiaf, is undersized as well, this is a problem that won’t be easily fixed for LA. So what’s the solution?

The way the Lakers fix this is by making a concerted team effort on the boards, on both ends. On the defensive end, the Lakers tend to rely on Gasol and Odom to get the boards and trigger their running game, either with Gasol and his outlet passing, or Odom grabbing it and taking the ball himself. But they have both been getting beat, both with bad timing and sheer size and physicality that they just don’t have. The solution is slowing down their fast-break game and focusing on getting the extra possessions. The Celtics have been doing a great job of hitting the offensive boards while still getting back on defense, so the Lakers should make rebounding a team effort, and unleashing their open-court attack less often. A simple change, but 5-10 extra possessions can make the difference in a close game (like the first two).

Bench Play

My take on bench play, especially in the playoffs, is that the home team’s bench will almost ALWAYS play better. Role players and energy guys simply feed off the home crowd and the familiarity of their home court. This fact is why home teams in general are harder to beat in the playoffs (or at least my theory). There’s no way that Leon Powe would have had 21 points in 15 minutes in LA.

Before the series started, I thought that it would be an advantage for the Celtics if their bench could play LA’s to a draw. Instead, they have taken it a step farther and completely outplay them through two games. The Lakers need to come back with a strong effort tonight, especially Sahsa Vujacic and Luke Walton, the two best bench players for the Lakers who haven’t showed up at all for this series so far. LA winning the battle of the benches gives them a big edge tonight.

Officiating 

Without starting back up on my Game 2 rant, I am very interested to see how the game is called tonight. Like I said previously, the last thing I want to see is another disparity in free throws, this time favoring the Lakers. However, I am looking to see if the Lakers force the issue or not. Regardless of the officiating, the bottom line is that the Lakers, other than Pau Gasol, have been a jump-shooting team so far, while the Celtics have been extremely aggressive, going to the basket as much as possible. The Celtics defense has been geared towards not letting anyone, especially Kobe, into the lane, but Kobe, Fisher, Farmar and Odom need to work harder at getting into the teeth of the Boston defense. Even if they are looking to pass, getting into the lane will really open up the Lakers offense.

Kobe Bryant vs Paul Pierce 

In the battle of the stars, Pierce has effectively played Kobe to a draw through the first two games. After everyone expected Kobe to dominate the series on both ends, this was sort of a wakeup call, and I’m sure nobody hears it louder than Kobe himself. I’d expect him to come out looking for his own shot, and trying to get in the lane and finish at the rim. Kobe needs to outshine everyone while not being selfish, a task that he is certainly up for.

Pierce, on the other hand, has been playing better than anyone could have predicted, especially on only one leg. His 4-4 shooting from deep last game was amazing, and he really feels like he can’t miss right now. He is playing with supreme confidence, and it’s not likely to change in front of his hometown crowd in LA. To make matters worse, the Lakers really don’t have anyone to guard Pierce. Kobe can do it, and I’d expect him to see extra minutes on Pierce in Game 3, but don’t forget that it was Kobe that was guarding Pierce at the end of Game 2 when Pierce got into the lane and got fouled for the clinching free throws. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had another Trevor Ariza sighting, because he really is the best player the Lakers have to use against Pierce.

 

My Prediction

If the Lakers couldn’t afford to be down 2-0 in the series, then they DEFINITELY can’t afford to be down 3-0. Both games have been close, even though the Celtics had a huge lead most of Game 2, but “almost” doesn’t count as a win, especially not in the NBA Finals (sorry if that was too cliché). This game truly is a must-win for the Lakers, and I’d hope that they come out with a sense of urgency and try to put this one away as early as possible. I’m banking on a Lakers win, although closer than they’d want it, tonight.