Some keys for tonight’s game:
Rebounding
One of the biggest problems for the Lakers (and there have been several) so far has been the Celtics large rebounding edge. Gasol and Odom are explosive open-court athletes, but so far they just haven’t been getting it done on the glass. Unfortunately, this isn’t entirely their faults, as they simply don’t have the size and body types to bang down low with the likes of KG, Perkins, PJ Brown and Leon Powe. Considering that the only other big man for the Lakers, Ronny Turiaf, is undersized as well, this is a problem that won’t be easily fixed for LA. So what’s the solution?
The way the Lakers fix this is by making a concerted team effort on the boards, on both ends. On the defensive end, the Lakers tend to rely on Gasol and Odom to get the boards and trigger their running game, either with Gasol and his outlet passing, or Odom grabbing it and taking the ball himself. But they have both been getting beat, both with bad timing and sheer size and physicality that they just don’t have. The solution is slowing down their fast-break game and focusing on getting the extra possessions. The Celtics have been doing a great job of hitting the offensive boards while still getting back on defense, so the Lakers should make rebounding a team effort, and unleashing their open-court attack less often. A simple change, but 5-10 extra possessions can make the difference in a close game (like the first two).
Bench Play
My take on bench play, especially in the playoffs, is that the home team’s bench will almost ALWAYS play better. Role players and energy guys simply feed off the home crowd and the familiarity of their home court. This fact is why home teams in general are harder to beat in the playoffs (or at least my theory). There’s no way that Leon Powe would have had 21 points in 15 minutes in LA.
Before the series started, I thought that it would be an advantage for the Celtics if their bench could play LA’s to a draw. Instead, they have taken it a step farther and completely outplay them through two games. The Lakers need to come back with a strong effort tonight, especially Sahsa Vujacic and Luke Walton, the two best bench players for the Lakers who haven’t showed up at all for this series so far. LA winning the battle of the benches gives them a big edge tonight.
Officiating
Without starting back up on my Game 2 rant, I am very interested to see how the game is called tonight. Like I said previously, the last thing I want to see is another disparity in free throws, this time favoring the Lakers. However, I am looking to see if the Lakers force the issue or not. Regardless of the officiating, the bottom line is that the Lakers, other than Pau Gasol, have been a jump-shooting team so far, while the Celtics have been extremely aggressive, going to the basket as much as possible. The Celtics defense has been geared towards not letting anyone, especially Kobe, into the lane, but Kobe, Fisher, Farmar and Odom need to work harder at getting into the teeth of the Boston defense. Even if they are looking to pass, getting into the lane will really open up the Lakers offense.
Kobe Bryant vs Paul Pierce
In the battle of the stars, Pierce has effectively played Kobe to a draw through the first two games. After everyone expected Kobe to dominate the series on both ends, this was sort of a wakeup call, and I’m sure nobody hears it louder than Kobe himself. I’d expect him to come out looking for his own shot, and trying to get in the lane and finish at the rim. Kobe needs to outshine everyone while not being selfish, a task that he is certainly up for.
Pierce, on the other hand, has been playing better than anyone could have predicted, especially on only one leg. His 4-4 shooting from deep last game was amazing, and he really feels like he can’t miss right now. He is playing with supreme confidence, and it’s not likely to change in front of his hometown crowd in LA. To make matters worse, the Lakers really don’t have anyone to guard Pierce. Kobe can do it, and I’d expect him to see extra minutes on Pierce in Game 3, but don’t forget that it was Kobe that was guarding Pierce at the end of Game 2 when Pierce got into the lane and got fouled for the clinching free throws. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had another Trevor Ariza sighting, because he really is the best player the Lakers have to use against Pierce.
My Prediction
If the Lakers couldn’t afford to be down 2-0 in the series, then they DEFINITELY can’t afford to be down 3-0. Both games have been close, even though the Celtics had a huge lead most of Game 2, but “almost” doesn’t count as a win, especially not in the NBA Finals (sorry if that was too cliché). This game truly is a must-win for the Lakers, and I’d hope that they come out with a sense of urgency and try to put this one away as early as possible. I’m banking on a Lakers win, although closer than they’d want it, tonight.
No comments:
Post a Comment