Quick Thoughts before the Draft

As predicted, the trades have started to come in with the draft starting in a little over an hour. The biggest trade so far today has the Nets sending Richard Jefferson to the Bucks for forwards Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian (who was the 6th overall pick last year). Once again, I think this deal works well for both teams. The Bucks fill their biggest need, getting a proven small forward in Jefferson, who should be happy to finally get a change of scenery. This probably means that the Bucks are not looking to trade Michael Redd, and will attempt to make a playoff run this year. Getting rid of Simmons gives them some extra cap space to try to sign a free agent this summer. The Nets get a young player in Yi who was one of the top players in last years draft, and the huge salary of Bobby Simmons, which will come off the cap just in time for the free agent class of 2010. 

 

Both teams kept their draft picks in this deal. With the 8 pick, the Bucks might not be targeting Joe Alexander anymore. If Russell Westbrook is on the board, they could grab him here. I could also see the Bucks taking DJ Augustin here, or trying to trade down to the early teens and try to grab Augustin or Mario Chalmers.

 

The Nets could still go in any direction with their first round picks, and it sounds like they are trying to move up to the Grizzlies spot at 5 and control their own destiny, instead of waiting for someone to fall to them at 10. Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and Joe Alexander (who might get to play with Yi afterall) could all be options at the 5 or 10 spots. 

 

Speaking of Joe Alexander....  For anyone questioning how athletic he is.  And another one.

My favorite Joe Alexander dunk, however, is this one. I was reading an interview of his the other day, and he claims that he slowed up before the dunk because he had heard that Stanley Robinson (the guy he's dunking over) was supposed to be a good shot-blocker, and that he "had his own opinion about that." Now that's the kind of attitude I want in a player. 

 

It has also been reported that the Sonics (4th pick) and Clippers (7th pick) will be swapping picks, with the Clippers giving the Sonics their first rounder next year, but only if OJ Mayo is taken in the top 3. This means that Seattle plans on taking Mayo should he slip out of the top 3, and also that Seattle will be happy with any of the players who would be available at 7 (probably including Brook Lopez, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon or Jerryd Bayless). It's really a win-win for the Sonics- either they get the player the want the most in Mayo, who would be a great fit for them, or they pick up a first-rounder next year while still getting an impact player this year. Great move either way.

For the Clippers, it says that they have a specific player in mind that they want, and don't want to leave it up to chance. My guess is that this player is Eric Gordon. Usually I like these kinds of moves, in terms of taking action to get the player that you really want, but next year's first rounder (especially since the Clippers will more than likely be a lottery team again next year) is a pretty steep price to only move up 4 spots in a draft with so many similar players. Not too sure about this move from the Clippers side.

 

And with that, the draft is only an hour away. I love the draft because after months of speculation, all the rumors and misinformation all gets sorted out over the course of a few hours. Should be a fun one. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts and analysis of the draft.

"Mock" Draft

It has always been my theory for the draft that you should take the best player available, or the player that your team has rated the highest, regardless of position. Every year team's reach for a player at a position of "need", and end up not getting anything in return (think Sheldon Williams). Obviously there are exceptions, for instance the Hornets don't need to draft a young point guard or the Magic don't really need a center, but for the most part if you pick a good player who can contribute, he'll be able to find his way onto the floor. Also, it has always been my philosophy that having "combo" players (negatively referred to as tweeners) isn't a bad thing either- certain players, even if they don't have a defined position, will contribute wherever they are. My two favorite examples are the Hawks forward tandem of Marvin Williams and Josh Smith (neither is a true 3 or 4, but they're both big and athletic and effectively defend both forward spots), and the Golden State backcourt of Baron Davis and Monta Ellis (both can handle the ball, play off the ball, and defend either guard spot depending on the matchups). Some teams stay away from this philosophy, but there's something to be said for having as much talent as possible on the floor at one time.

With all the trades and indecision among teams leading up to tomorrow's draft, I didn't think it would make sense for someone without any insider information, such as myself, to simply put up a pick-by-pick mock draft. Instead, I have written up what I think each team in the top half of the draft should do, including who they might pick, and trades that they might consider. I'll also briefly cover a few other teams and possibilities.

A quick note- this is another long post. If you don't want to read the entire thing, go ahead and skip to teams or situations that interest you- I won't be offended. I really enjoy writing these, and put a lot of time into them, and I appreciate all of you taking the time to visit this site, regardless of how much you actually read. 

 

Chicago Bulls

Regardless of which direction the Bulls go in with the first overall pick, Rose or Beasley, they will have a serious log-jam at that position. Right now, they have Kirk Hinrich, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon, Larry Hughes, Thabo Sefolosha, Andres Nocioni, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah and Drew Gooden. Add Rose or Beasley to that list, and that's 11 players who could be starters in the league next year. It's one thing to have depth, but the Bulls are looking at serious chemistry issues with so many players looking for big minutes. That said, if the Bulls can handle this correctly, they will be in a great position. They should be seeking 2 or 3 for 1 type of deals which would consolidate their talent. Assuming they take Rose, which I think they will, they should be looking to move Hinrich, preferably for a big man. I had written that they should try to get Jermaine O'Neal, but he just got traded to the Raptors for TJ Ford, so that deal is no longer a possibility. The Bulls probably won't make their deal on draft day, simply to capitalize on the media hype surrounding the #1 pick, and also to let the dust clear from all the draft day trades.

The Bulls have spent several seasons accumulating talent, but as last season proved, having lots of talent doesn't necessarily translate into wins. They need to look at all trade possibilities, with no one player being untouchable (excluding the 1st pick), and simply find the best talent available. I think Rose is the pick for them, but taking Beasley would be just as good of a pick, and either way the Bulls should be right back in the hunt next year.

Miami Heat

The Heat are also in a great situation. The player that they want the most, Rose, will probably be taken by the Bulls, but they have a pretty good consolation prize in Beasley, who is general considered the most talented player in the draft. However, Pat Riley seems to be turned off by Beasley's immature attitude. I noted in my player analysis that Beasley likes to joke around, but I think Riley is wrong in his assessment that he doesn't take basketball seriously. Either way, Beasley is a tremendous asset, either as a player or as trade bait, and the Heat should have lots of trade options available to them. If I was the GM for Miami and had committed to making the trade, I would be most interested in the rumored trade with Memphis, which would essentially be the number 2 pick and a player that Miami wants to get rid of (probably Mark Blount) for the package of Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller, and the 5th pick. Recently I've heard that the deal could also be the 5th pick and Mike Conley (the 4th overall pick last year) instead of Lowry. Assuming that the Conley deal is too steep of an asking price for the Grizzlies, I think that the Heat would still be well off with a core of Lowry, Wade, Miller (probably as a 6th man), Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem and the 5th pick, probably a big like Brook Lopez or Kevin Love. This gives the Heat the ability to play fast (with Marion at the 4), or more of a defense-based game, as Lowry, Marion and Haslem are all strong defenders at their positions.

Even with several enticing trade offers, the Heat would still be best off keeping Beasley and trying to move Haslem for a young point guard (I think the Grizzlies would still be interested in a straight-up Haslem for Lowry swap). Beasley and Marion would be a great pair at forward, and since both of them can play the 3 and 4 (and are very good rebounders), Marion would be able to guard the opposing teams better offensive threat while Beasley does the scoring. A core of Wade-Beasley-Marion, regardless of their surrounding players, would be a very dangerous team, and I don't think the Heat should mess with that possibility.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are in a tough position because they are in need of help at every position. There is no real identity to the team, and the only player who has proven that he can produce at the NBA level is Al Jefferson. They also have Randy Foye, a combo guard who hasn't really shown that he can play the point or off-guard especially well. That said, OJ Mayo is pretty clear-cut as the third best prospect, and the T-Wolves would be smart to grab him and play him and Foye in the backcourt together. Mayo is bigger and stronger, while Foye is smaller and faster, so I don't think it would be too radical to pair them together. The Wolves need talent, and Mayo has that. With a core of Foye, Mayo and Jefferson, the Wolves won't be competitive this year, but will at least have a foundation for the future.

Seattle Sonics

The Sonics, considering they could have had a top-2 pick and missed out in the lottery, are still in a good position. Like most teams drafting at the top, they don't need to look for one specific position. Their only 2 players who will be on the team a year or 2 from now are Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, two top-5 picks from last year who both have the versatility to play several positions. Because they need so many different things, the Sonics have several options to move up or down in the draft. They should try to capitalize on the Heat's indecision on Beasley, and it seems like they have offered Chris Wilcox and the 4th pick to the Heat for the #2. This would be a great move for the Sonics not only because Beasley is such a great player but also because Durant and Beasley have supposedly been extremely close friends for a long time. A core of Durant, Beasley and Green would be very dangerous, and like the TWolves, they won't be winning next year, so they will be able to add at least one more high pick to that core before challenging for the playoffs.

If the Sonics stay at 4, they will have the luxury of choosing between the several talented guards in the draft, as well as center Brook Lopez, who would also be a good option there. Any of the Mayo (if available), Westbrook, Jerryd Bayless or Eric Gordon group would be a good piece to add to the team. They also have the option of capitalizing on the hot stock of Westbrook and trying to add a slightly lower pick along with a young player for their pick, but there don't seem to be many options like that for the Sonics, as all of the top 10 teams don't have any assets that they'd be comfortable moving. Either the Sonics can move up and get Beasley at 2, or they stay at 4 and most likely take Westbrook.

The Sonics also have the 24th overall pick. They were thought to be taking an international player with the pick, but given the recent trend of international players taken late in the first round staying overseas, I think the Sonics would be better off taking a guard like Courtney Lee. Usually I would say they should take a risk on a center like DeAndre Jordan, but the Sonics have taken unproven young centers several times in the past few years, and none are even close to panning out. 

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are a real unknown coming into the draft. They have 3 young, talented point guards (Conley, Lowry and Javaris Crittendon) and a rising star in Rudy Gay, who can play the 2 or the 3. Gay is the only untouchable, otherwise the entire roster (even Conley, which I didn't expect) could be had given the right offer. Sitting at 5, the best options for the Grizzlies would be Eric Gordon, who could develop as another big-time scorer along with Gay, or Brook Lopez, who would give the Grizzlies a legitimate option down low. There is a lot of talk about this being a landing spot for Kevin Love, but I think this is one team where Love's talent would be wasted, and it is still too high for him anyway. With all those point guards and no real roster set-up, the Grizzlies NEED to make a trade. Their best move would be moving up to get Beasley, and if they can do that the franchise would be back on track on their rebuilding project.

If that deal falls through, they would be wise to trade down for a few picks and/or assets, and also looking to move one of their point guards along with sharpshooter Mike Miller. With that in mind, I think a great trade partner for the Grizzlies would be the Suns- they are looking for a small forward to split time with Grant Hill and a defensive-minded point guard to back up Steve Nash, as well as trying to move up in the draft to grab Russell Westbrook or Joe Alexander. There are several variations of this deal that could work, but the basic idea would be Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa (the Suns are trying to move both of them) for Kyle Lowry and Mike Miller. The Grizzlies 5th pick and the Suns 15th pick could also be included (one or the other, maybe both), but the keys here are that Miller would be a perfect fit with the Suns, and the Grizzlies would be able to get some more established young talent in Barbosa and Diaw. If this trade is made with no picks involved, Memphis could take Lopez at 5, and go with a starting line-up of Conley, Barbosa, Gay, Diaw and Lopez- maybe not a playoff contender, but certainly a start.

New York Knicks

The Knicks, as usual, are in a horrible situation. Their roster is filled with overpriced players who hog the ball and don't play defense. Their only real goal right now should be clearing cap space for the summer of 2010 (when LeBron is a free agent), but they have had so many bad seasons the past few years that they have to give their fans some hope. Also, they just hired Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni, who isn't there to try and lose games for the next two years. So what do the Knicks do? The draft is full of exciting combo guards, but the Knicks have had nothing but trouble with combo guards, and many of the players available at 6 duplicate their current crop of guards- Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson and Fred Jones. The one guard who doesn't duplicate what the Knicks already have is Russell Westbrook, who looks like he will be a true point guard who plays defense and does the little things that win games. Of course, Westbrook's stock has been soaring and it's unlikely at this point that he's available at 6, meaning the Knicks would have to trade up to get him. The only players that the Knicks could trade to move up, however, are the two assets that they would be interested in keeping long-term- Nate Robinson, who ironically would be perfect paired up with Westbrook (Westbrook could guard shooting guards but run the point while Robinson could play off the ball but still guard point guards), and David Lee, a rugged and athletic big man who plays defense and rebounds, things that Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry both seem allergic to. Unless they can package Lee or Robinson with one of the players they are trying to get rid of (namely Randolph and Marbury), the Knicks should stay put and draft whoever is available between Westbrook and athletic forward Joe Alexander. Alexander, like Westbrook, is a great athlete who does things other than score. With new GM Donnie Walsh running the show now, I'd expect the Knicks to draft the best player available (praying that it's Westbrook), and then looking to make drastic changes in the next few weeks. This franchise is just as lost as it has ever been, and there is no short-term fix in sight.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are yet another team with no clear direction at the moment, but at least they are set up to have a good draft and be able to answer a lot of questions on draft night. Their best players are all bigs (Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, Al Thorton and center Chris Kaman), and they have virtually no talent at guard. Sitting at 7, they should have their pick of a few guards, most likely Eric Gordon or Jerryd Bayless, who is reportedly going to fall out of the top 6. If they stay where they are now, either Gordon or Bayless (or Westbrook if he somehow lasts this long) will be a good pick, and will immediately give them some talent with the ability to play now while still looking to the future. However, the status of Maggette and Brand are in question, and they look to be trying to move one, if not both, depending on the offer. The Heat love Elton Brand, who would be great alongside Dwyane Wade, and the trade of Brand and the 7th pick for Shawn Marion and the 2nd pick has been rumored more than once. Ironically, the Clippers one of the few teams who would probably take OJ Mayo with the 2nd pick because of the logjam they have at forward. Obviously this would be a mistake, as their promising combo forward, Al Thorton (their first round pick last year) is actually 4 years older than Beasley, and Beasley is probably better than Thorton already. So assuming they can make the trade and get Marion and Beasley (who, as I wrote earlier, would make a great tandem), they would still have to move Maggette, who wants out of LA, and Thorton, who would be great as a 3rd forward in that rotation, but is too valuable of a piece to keep in that role. There have been talks of Maggette being traded to the Suns for Leandro Barbosa, which has had mixed reactions, but Thorton for Barbosa would make more sense. Either way, Maggette and/or Thorton should be able to bring in a good, young guard or a high draft pick. I would hope that the Clippers experiment with all of these scenarios and look to be very active on draft night. Maybe their moves pan out, maybe they don't, but for a sad franchise like the Clippers, they should at least try to make something happen.

Milwaukee Bucks

The lower you go in the lottery, the sadder the stories get. The Bucks are a team that, even if they landed the #1 pick, would still be years away from contending. They at least have a roster that can resemble an NBA team, but if they want to make the playoffs, or make a serious run, they need a serious makeover. Right now they are built around shooting guard Michael Redd, a deadly 3-point shooter who has expanded his game to become a very good offensive weapon. The problem with Redd is that you will never win a championship with him as your best player. You could argue that they have a solid roster, but none of their players, other than Redd, ranks in the top 10 at their position, and without a major change they will be fighting for the last playoff spot in the East, and picking in the 8-15 range, every year. Milwaukee is also at a major disadvantage because they are not an attractive free-agent destination, so they will need to overpay for any player they sign, or trade for talent that they didn't draft. They wasted a huge opportunity in 2006 when they took Andrew Bogut with the number 1 pick, instead of Chris Paul or Deron Williams. So what do the Bucks do this year? It looks like Joe Alexander will be available with the 8th pick, and if they stay put, Alexander would at least fill out their roster to the point that they would have a good, solid starter at each position. But I think the Bucks need to do more, making a drastic change that makes them a playoff contender immediately, or going into full rebuilding mode, which would likely involve moving Redd and starting over. I'm pretty sure that the Bucks aren't really looking to do either, as I haven't heard Milwaukee involved in any trade talks, so for now I'd assume they take Alexander (or Galinari, depending on who falls to them) at 8, maybe make an off-season deal, and hope for better luck in the lottery next year.

Charlotte Bobcats

It's sad that a team that has Michael Jordan in the front office and Larry Brown as coach can't get any coverage. The Bobcats have a new facility, and a few good players, but nobody outside of Charlotte seems to know that they even exist. The Bobcats seem to have an idea of what they want to do, and since they traded a very good young prospect (Brandan Wright) for a proven player (Jason Richardson) last year on draft day, it seems like they are trying to win now. They have a decent core, with Ray Felton, Richardson, Gerald Wallace (probably their best player) and Emeka Okafor, but they are constantly plagued by injuries and are another team that looks to be stuck in the late lottery cycle unless they make a move. They really struck out 2 years ago when they took Adam Morrison 3rd overall (and missed out on Brandon Roy and Tyrus Thomas, among others), and if that pick turned into a productive player the Bobcats could be a playoff team. Other than their core guys, they don't really have any tradable assets, so I think they sit at 9 and see who falls to them. With all the shake-up up top, they should be able to land a big man to pair with Okafor (they'd be happy with Brook Lopez or Kevin Love), or if they're really lucky one of the guards falls to them. A player like Russell Westbrook or Jerryd Bayless would be a great fit in Charlotte, as they'd be able to back up both guard spots, and provide defense and energy (Westbrook) or scoring (Bayless) off the bench before taking up a starting spot down the road. 

The one wild card for Charlotte is Gerald Wallace. When he hits the free agent market next year he's probably going to want more money than the Bobcats can (or will) pay him. He also happens to be exactly what the Suns are looking for, as a versatile, proven small forward, and if the Bobcats can pry Barbosa and Diaw (and maybe even the 15th pick) from Phoenix, it would really help the team in the coming years. Not sure if this has been discussed at all, but I think something along those lines would definitely be considering for Charlotte.

It was just reported that the Bobcats have traded a future first round pick for the Nuggets pick, the 20th overall pick. I'd expect them to try and grab one of the young bigs falling down the board, like JaVale McGee or DeAndre Jordan.

New Jersey Nets

The Nets, like the Knicks, are really gearing up for the summer of 2010, to try and have enough cap roop to sign LeBron James. The Nets are in a slightly better position, however, because they have a decent foundation already that should be able to win some games this year. Their biggest needs are in the front court, where they will hope that Brook Lopez or Danilo Galinari fall to them. They drafted defensive specialist Sean Williams last year, and he would give them freedom to draft a more offensive-minded player like Galinari. The Nets are also very active in trade discussions. While Vince Carter isn’t going anywhere because of his huge contract, Richard Jefferson simply hasn’t worked well the past few years on the Nets, and really needs a change of scenery. The Suns are especially interested in him, where the same 3 pieces (Barbosa, Diaw, 15^th pick) could all be included in a deal. The Blazers are also interested in a true small forward like Jefferson, and have several young players and draft picks that they could offer. My guess is they try to move Jefferson, and then use their draft picks (they also have the 21^st pick) to try and move up higher up in the lottery.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have already addressed their biggest need going into the draft- finding a point guard not named Jamaal Tinsley- by trading Jermaine O'Neal to the Raptors for TJ Ford. Tinsley, in the rare occasions that he was healthy, was a cancer to the Pacers, along with the last remaining tie to the Palace Brawl. Although it rarely happens in the NBA, the Pacers could cut Tinsley, getting nothing in return, and be better off as a team. With Ford now locked in at the point, and Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger locked in as the two untouchables on the team, the Pacers will probably be looking for a big man to pair with Troy Murphey in the frontcourt. They also picked up the Raptors 17th pick in the O'Neal trade, so my guess is that they still use their 11th pick on DJ Augustin, who can back up Ford for now before taking over down the road, and going big with their later pick. Roy Hibbert, Robin Lopez, JJ Hickson, and draft sleeper Jason Thompson are all possibilities here. 

Like I said, I love the Ford trade for Indiana. Ford is a true point guard, and O'Neal hasn't been productive for the Pacers for at least two years now. The team is going in a new direction, and while they will try to maximize what they get in return for Tinsley (Shawne Williams is another player Indiana wouldn't mind parting ways with), simply getting rid of him is the more important thing for the Pacers. Depending on how their draft plays out, the Pacers should be in the playoffs within the next year or two.

Sacramento Kings

I'm not really sure what to do with the Kings. They remind me of the Bucks- lots of players with NBA talent, but not enough to seriously compete anytime soon. Their best player, Kevin Martin, is still young enough that he can lead the team into a new era, but their best trade asset, Ron Artest, won't bring back that much in return. The most glaring need for the Kings is at point guard, so I think DJ Augustin and Mario Chalmers are possibilities there, but I'm not sure that the Kings want to be drafting for this upcoming season. They seem like the team that should take advantage of the indecision with the more unproven prospects- this seems like a good place for Darrell Arthur or Anthony Randolph to be taken. I haven't heard the Kings mentioned in any trades, so whoever they take with this pick will be a good indicator of the direction the Kings are trying to go in for the next few years. 

Portland Trail Blazers

Teams like the Blazers make it fun to follow the NBA. The last two drafts, Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard has pulled off numerous draft-day trades, and now has a foundation of Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and last years first overall pick Greg Oden, along with several other young, promising players. The Blazers have a similar problem to the Bulls- too many players. Not only that, but the Blazers have picked up the Hornets 27th overall pick. So what does all this mean? That the Blazers are looking to trade again. Portland is looking for a point guard and a small forward. They, like everyone else, are extremely interested in Russell Westbrook and Joe Alexander, or picking up a veteran small forward, such as Richard Jefferson or Gerald Wallace. It's impossible to say what the Blazers will actually end up doing, but they have the assets to pull of almost any deal, and odds are they make some noise on draft day.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors, only a year after their amazing run at the end of the 2007 season, seem to be in disarray again. Their two best young players, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, are restricted free agents, and their best player, Baron Davis, is entering the final year of his contract. The are set in what style of basketball they will play, however, which means that they will either draft the best wing athlete available or a big man who can shoot from the outside. The two hottest names for Golden State are Kosta Koufos and, surprisingly, Rider's Jason Thompson. Seems like they will be more focused on keeping their current team intact as opposed to looking for trades that would shake things up.

Phoenix Suns

As already discussed here, the Suns are actively looking for a trade partner, and are dangling their pick, as well as Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw, as bait. If they stay at 15, the most likely pick is Brandon Rush, who could step in at the 3 immediately. If not Rush, could also take Mario Chalmers to backup Nash or Donte Greene, who could fill the designated shooter role that James Jones had success in a few years ago.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers are another team that should be able to take advantage of the slipping big men in the draft. I'd guess Darrell Arthur, Marreese Speights or Anthony Randolph is the pick here. They could also look at Brandon Rush if he's somehow still on the board, as he'd be a great compliment to Andre Iguodala, but he most likely won't be here at this spot. They could also take Donte Greene, a tall, athletic shooter who isn't ready to play quite yet, but could pan out down the road. The Sixers had success with a similar player, Thaddeus Young, in last years draft. The two of them could form a solid tandem down the road.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are one team who don't need anything that this pick can give them- I wouldn't be surprised if they move this pick for cash or a future pick. If not, their most pressing need would be a big man who's main priorities are defense and rebounding, such as JJ Hickson or Robin Lopez.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs should be looking to package this pick, along with Anderson Varejau (who wants out of Cleveland) for a scorer to put with LeBron. Even if they only move up to the early teens (maybe to the Kings), Brandon Rush seems like a great player to pair with LeBron. Staying at 19, Donte Green could provide some shooting off the bench at the 3 and 4 positions. If they wanted to get more creative, they could see what Milwaukee wants in return for Michael Redd- the Cavs are short on assets, but Varejau, Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract, Daniel Gibson and the pick could all be included in a deal. I'm really not sure what the Bucks would even ask in for in this situation, but it's definitely worth a try for the Cavs.

Orlando Magic

The Magic have two needs- a legitimate starter at shooting guard and another big man to back up Howard and ease some of the rebounding load off of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. They should be able to fill one of these needs with the 22nd pick- Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts would both be good options at shooting guard, and Marreese Speights and JJ Hickson could both work at the 4. Speights would actually be a great pick for the Magic- if he's on the board, I think he's the pick.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz don't really need much, but a true 7-footer would help them, especially if they're going to lose Carlos Boozer next year, when he's a free agent. Roy Hibbert and JaVale McGee are solid options here, if either is available. Even though I haven't mentioned him much up to this point, this might be a place where Donte Greene could be taken. He's young and not ready to play yet, but he's tall, athletic and a great shooter.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets don't really need any one thing here. Someone is bound to fall, and the Rockets should just sit and take the best player available. Bill Walker hasn't been talked about up to this point- questions about his knee have really hurt his draft stock and the 25th pick might be a little early for him- but he's a tough player, and I think he'd be a worthwhile risk for the Rockets. Donte Greene and Chris Douglas-Roberts are two other players who could work for the Rockets as well. 

San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics

All three of these teams are just waiting to see who will fall down to them on draft day, and given the chaos that invariably will happen, someone of value will fall to this range. The Spurs will be looking for some young athletes to add to their aging roster, the Pistons always take a tough player (maybe Bill Walker) and the Celtics probably don't have any real requirements, but a true 7-footer could be the pick for them.

I will be providing some last-minute thoughts before the draft tomorrow- the trade rumors will be coming even faster at that point, and some actual deals will probably have happened by that time as well.

Thanks again for reading, for those of you who made it this far, and please don't hesitate to give me any feedback, positive or negative. 

NBA Draft- Player Analysis

With the draft coming up fast, I decided to put together some scouting reports of the players I expect to be taken in the first round. As I don't really have the resources to thoroughly scout all of the players, some write-ups are longer than others. Also, I have found that an effective tool in grading players before the draft is comparing them to a current NBA player that they either resemble as they are right now, or might develop into down the road. NBADraft.net and ESPN both do a good job of projecting players, so I tried not to duplicate too many of their projections.

All of these players are listed in the general range that I expect them to be taken, but are not my rankings. I find it pointless to rank players in a strict numerical list, as players are taken depending on a combination of one team's opinion of him, along with the needs of a certain team. I try to project the range that they will be taken, but the draft is a very inexact science, and to make it worse, there will be several trades on draft day that will further scramble the order. I will be coming out with a mock draft of sorts, trying to project not only who each team may take but also what moves they might be trying to make, before Thursday's draft. 

Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis

Derrick Rose, the 6'3 point guard from Memphis, is one of those players who is so good you're not quite sure how to explain it. In this regard, I think that the most appropriate comparison is Jason Kidd. Rose is a big, strong and fast lead guard who can do anything on the court. On defense, he uses his speed and size to shut down the opposing point guard, disrupting the opposing team's offense. On offense, Rose uses his strength and ball-handling ability to get into the lane, at which point he can finish at the rim, pull up and hit a jumper, shoot a runner (think Tony Parker), or most importantly, make the right pass to hit an open teammate. A spectacular athlete, he can soar above a crowd for a rebound and easily finish on put-back dunks or alley-oops. He always seems to make the right decision to help his team, and his desire to win has been well-documented.

I think Rose will be able to step in right away and become a top 10 point guard in the league by the end of his first year. He gives any team a chance to win right away, and will also be the centerpiece to build a team around long-term. He has publically declared that he wants to be picked first by his hometown Bulls (he grew up in Chicago), and I think that Rose would be the right pick for them.

Michael Beasley, F, Kansas State

Michael Beasley is a combo forward out of Kansas State who is simply a beast on offense. He has been called a power forward, but I don't think position really matters with Beasley- put him on the court, and he'll score points for you. Beasley is a hard player to project, because his skill set and size are fairly unique, but he falls in a similar category to Carmelo Anthony, or possibly Glenn Robinson. He is a phenomenal jump shooter who has shown that his range extends beyond the NBA 3-point line, and he can shoot off the dribble or off the catch. But Beasley can also play inside- he is extremely aggressive, taking defenders off the dribble and into the paint, where he can dunk or lay it in with either hand (think Carlos Boozer). He fights for rebounds both on offense and defense, and although he's a little smaller than originally thought (more in the 6'8 range than 6'10), he won't have any problem competing against most power forwards in the league. In watching highlights and games of his, the one thing that stands out to me about Beasley is his decision making and aggressiveness- as soon as he catches the ball, he is in attack mode. Maybe he isn't making the right decision every time, but he is very decisive, which is a great trait to have. Part of this has to do with the constant double-teams he faced in college, but he would be wise to continue to do this in the NBA as well. 

The biggest knock on Beasley is his personality and character- Beasley doesn't take himself too seriously in interviews and off the court, something that scouts have noted as a red flag. I think these claims are a non-issue- he's never had any legal issues (his biggest complaints have been about childish pranks), and most of these reports come from his high school days. But the real reason that I don't think Beasley is a character concern is because he takes the game of basketball extremely seriously. He reminds me of Rasheed Wallace in this regard- he has fun with the media, but when he's on the court he is intense and determined to play as well as he can. Beasley wants to be the best basketball player that he can be, and is completely committed to that mission. Even if the Bulls don't take him with the first overall pick, there's no way he should fall past 2.

OJ Mayo, G, USC

OJ Mayo has gone from overhyped to completely trashed, and all the way back, now sitting fairly comfortably as the consensus 3rd best player in the draft. A 6'4 combo guard, Mayo can play with or without the ball in his hands and still be effective. He is a solid ball-handler and playmaker, a very good- although streaky- shooter, and very strong for his size and age. Watching Mayo in college was almost a chore- every team he faced was geared to stop him at all costs, and on a very thin USC team, he was often harassed into poor shooting nights. But what I did see from Mayo was a toughness and commitment to defense that was never supposed to be part of the package, as well as attributes that I still don't hear when people talk about Mayo. I think a good pro comparison for Mayo is Brandon Roy- a very good all-around player who might never be a super-star, but definitely someone who will put up good numbers and help your team win. As of a year or two ago, Mayo was locked in as the first overall pick in this draft. During his year at USC, his stock took a huge hit, to the point where he would be a mid to late lottery pick. But Mayo has worked hard after the season, and most experts agree that Mayo is the 3rd best player in the draft. His draft range now is somewhere between 3 and 6, as he's definitely not falling past the Knicks at 6. There has been some talk of the Heat taking Mayo with the 2nd pick, but this would be a mistake, as he is not as good of a shot or long term prospect as Rose or Beasley. 

Kevin Love, PF/C, UCLA

Kevin Love is probably the most polarizing player in the draft. What we know about Love is that he is a hard worker who really enjoys playing basketball. He is very smart, using body positioning and footwork to score in the paint and to grab rebounds. He is also extremely skilled- he can hit an open jumper from almost anywhere inside the 3-point line, and his passing, especially the outlet pass, is as good as advertised. The problem is that Love, a natural center who was a stud there at UCLA, is extremely undersized and not very athletic. He measures out to about 6'9-6'10, and while his wide body will help him clear space in the lane, his jumping ability is extremely limited. Over the past few years, the league has gotten smaller- most teams only have one legitimate 7-footer in their starting lineup, and there has been a recent trend of under-sized power forwards making an impact (Jason Maxiell & Paul Millsap are probably the best examples). However, players like Maxiell and Millsap are extraordinary athletes who make up for their size with speed, muscle and leaping ability. There's no way that Love will ever block a Kevin Garnett dunk attempt or finish an alley-oop. Also, his outlet passes, usually resulting in a one-man fast break at the collegiate and high school levels, won't be nearly as effective in the NBA. He'll probably catch teams off guard occasionally in regular season games, but once teams realize they need to respect the deep pass on inbounds plays, it won't be a weapon any longer.

With all of that said, I think there is a place for Kevin Love in the league. The two closest examples that I could think of are Zach Randolph and Kurt Thomas. Zach Randolph has always played below the rim, and has averaged 20-10 for a season multiple times, using his body to get rebounds and his crafty shot-making ability to score points. However, Randolph has never been on a winning team, and a big part of that is his inability to defend big men who are faster and more athletic than he is. Part of that comes from his lack of effort, something that Love will never suffer from, but it has just as much to do with his physical limitations. In a league with the most advanced athletes in the world, Love simply doesn't match up. That's why I think a player like Kurt Thomas is a better comparison. Like Love, Thomas dominated at the college level before settling into a supporting role in the pros. But Kurt Thomas, relying mostly on basketball smarts and an extremely reliable mid-range jumper, has been a key part of several very good teams throughout his career.

Right now Love is predicted to go in the top 10, as early as 5th overall, which is really too high for him. Ideally, he ends up on a solid, already established team. In order to succeed, Love can't be a go-to guy (especially early in his career), and must be protected on defense with a legitimate post player. Also, he will always have to be in the best physical shape possible to even be on the same playing field as the majority of NBA players.

Brook Lopez, C, Stanford

Brook Lopez, the 7-foot center from Stanford, is a prospect who probably won't offer much more down the road than he does right now. But size sells in the draft, and Lopez legitimately measures at 7 feet tall, with great body control for someone so big. He is an offensive weapon that can play in the high post facing the basket, or play with his back to the basket, showing his arsenal of post-up moves. He has good footwork for someone his age, and also uses his long arms to create shots inside. The biggest knocks on Lopez are his athleticism (his twin brother, Robin, is a much better athlete but not as good of an all-around player) and his rebounding, which I think comes from a lack of effort (something that can be fixed with coaching). I think Lopez will be able to step in as a starter right away for most of the teams picking in the lottery, and should be able to average double-figures in his first year. He most resembles Andrew Bogut, a strong offensive player and true 7-footer who has become a very solid player in the league. His range in the draft right now is as high as 3rd overall, and probably no lower than the 9th or 10th pick. It looks like Lopez and Love will be directly competing for the first big man off the board, and it will be very revealing to see which of the two is taken first. 

Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona

Arizona's Jerryd Bayless is another one of the several combo guards expected to go early in this draft, and his stock has been on the rise since the start of the draft process. His greatest strengths are his phenomenal speed and his shooting ability, which is accurate from anywhere on the court. He really shows off his leaping ability on his jumper- he can stop on a dime and explode straight up, giving himself space and time to square his shoulders and shoot. At 6'3, he has drawn comparisons to Monta Ellis and Gilbert Arenas, because he has the ability to play point guard but is really more of a scorer and probably better suited to play shooting guard. Given the right situation, I don't think it will be much of a problem for Bayless to play the point, especially because he has great size for the position, and I have heard that several teams are interested in drafting him to be their point guard of the future. Either way, he will be able to contribute immediately at both sports, and I think the best comparison for Bayless is actually Leandro Barbosa, because of his scoring mentality, slight build (more-so than someone like Arenas), and his open-court speed. The range for Bayless is as high as 4 (he probably doesn't go before Mayo), but also no lower than 6 to the Knicks, who supposedly love Bayless and are really hoping to get their hands on him. 

Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana

Eric Gordon, who played his one year of college at Indiana, is one of the hardest prospects in the top group to predict. At 6'4, he gets grouped in with all of the other combo guards in this draft, but Gordon is really a true shooting guard. He is a great scorer but not a good ball-handler or decision-maker with the ball in his hands, and would be out of position at point guard. He is a little undersized to play the 2, but in the current NBA there are plenty of shooting guards under 6'6, so it shouldn't be a huge issue. Also, Gordon is a great athlete (40 inch vertical) and is very strongly built, especially for a guard- this allows him to finish in traffic and after contact. His jumper, which has practically unlimited range, is probably his greatest asset, and he can shoot it at any time in any situation. Defensively, he makes up for his lack of height with his strength and speed, and if he works hard he can turn himself into a plus defender capable of guarding the best guard on the opposing team every night. The comparison that is thrown around the most is Ben Gordon, but Ben Gordon is a better ball-handler who can play the point in a pinch, and is also smaller and slimmer than Eric. I think that Eric Gordon actually projects as a Ray Allen/Michael Redd type of player. Both of them were strictly jump shooters when they came into the league, and have let the rest of their game develop around their shooting ability. Gordon is still only 19, and while he will be able to step in and score right away, he has plenty of time to improve and develop the rest of his game. On draft day, Gordon can probably go as high as 6 to the Knicks or 7 to the Clippers (more likely), and probably won't fall past 10. He's more of a gamble than some of the other guards, but I think he has star potential and is definitely worth a high pick.

Russell Westbrook, G, UCLA

Russell Westbrook, the 6'3 combo guard from UCLA, might be my favorite player in the draft. Right now he is more of an athlete than basketball player, without a true position, but he projects to be a Rajon Rondo type of point guard, only with more size. He is probably the fastest player in the draft (if not, right there with Rose) and has huge hands and long arms. A lockdown defender at either guard spot, he can pressure the ball full-court against opposing points or deny the ball and chase a shooting guard off screens all day. I watched him completely shut down OJ Mayo in the USC-UCLA game earlier this year, as well as turn in great defensive performances throughout the NCAA tournament. He can immediately start, like Rondo, as a defensive specialist and open court threat, but as his jump shot improves (it really isn't that bad already), he has the potential to be a star. His draft stock is hard to predict because he still has relatively limited basketball experience- despite coming out after his 2nd year, he only played this past year at UCLA, splitting time at point guard and shooting guard. That said, he could go as high as 4th overall (before Bayless, depending on the team), but could also drop as low as 10 or 12. That said, Westbrook is probably the hottest player in the draft right now, and with teams looking to trade up to take him, it's doubtful that he lasts past the 6th or 7th pick.

Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia

The other hottest name in the draft is West Virginia's Joe Alexander. The 6'8 forward has tested out as the best overall athlete in the draft (with size, speed and strength all taken into account). Right now his game is based around his athleticism and his consistent mid-range jumper, but otherwise, he is still figuring it all out. Alexander is still relatively new to the game, but with his size and speed, I think he projects as a Shawn Marion/Andrei Kirilenko type of player who can guard multiple positions and contribute in a variety of ways. His 3-point jumper and ball-handling are both capable but still need work, and he should look to continue to improve his post game, which he first developed this past year. While there may be a few negatives with Alexander, he is still a very enticing prospect that lots of teams would love to have. His range initially looked to be late lottery, but now he looks like he could go as high as 6 (Knicks) or 8 (Bucks), and not much lower than 10- like Westbrook, his stock is helped by the fact that lots of teams are looking to trade up to get him.

Anthony Randolph, F, LSU

Anthony Randolph, the wiry-thin 6'10 forward from LSU is the hardest prospect to predict probably in the entire draft. Only 19 years old, he still doesn't even weigh 200 pounds- for some perspective, Kevin Durant weighed in at about 215 last year, and still played most of his rookie season at shooting guard. He is a good, not great athlete, but can cover a lot of ground because of his long legs. He is still strictly a face-up player, with a good jump shot and off the dribble game, but nobody really knows what position Randolph will play. Anyone who takes him is going to have to wait at least a year, if not 2, before getting any kind of contribution from Randolph- most drafts this would still make him a top 5 prospect, but with so many players ready to step in and play immediately, Randolph is going to slide a little. He has drawn lots of comparisons to a young Chris Bosh, who had similar measurements to Randolph as a rookie (other than the weight). But Bosh put up big numbers as a freshman in the ACC, while Randolph didn't really do too much his one year at LSU. While Bosh might be the right down the road comparison, right now I'd say that Randolph is more in the Brandan Wright mold. Originally Randolph was supposed to be a top 5 pick, and he still could be, but I think anyone who is taking Randolph in the lottery is really gambling- not to say he won't be a good player, but there's a very high risk/reward here, and it will be a few years before we can really know the results. 

DJ Augustin, PG, Texas

There are always players like DJ Augustin, the 6-foot point guard from Texas, who get taken lower than they should. After putting up great numbers and collecting awards in his two years in college, Augustin will have to wait for more unproven players to get their names called on draft day before he gets taken. In the NBA, size and potential trump experience and production, and Augistin won't be the first player to fall victim to this. Augustin is a true point guard who has great ball-handling skills, always makes sound decisions, is a sharp and crafty passer, and can hit the NBA 3 with consistency. The problem is his height- he is only 6 feet tall (which might be a little generous) and a good, but not explosive, athlete. That said, Augistin got a big boost when he measured very similarly (height, wingspan, standing reach) to Chris Paul. Their games are different, but with all the success that Paul has already said, it settled a lot of issues with Augistin. His style has been compared to Steve Nash, with the way he keeps his dribble alive, makes his teammates better, and hits the 3,  but Nash is bigger than Augustin (around 6'3). I'd compare Augustin to Jameer Nelson, another decorated college player who's stock was hurt because of his size. I think Augustin will be taken earlier than Nelson was, however, because he seems like a smarter player, and because the NBA is currently in a phase where everyone wants a point guard to build around. Augustin's draft range starts and ends with the Pacers and Kings at 11 & 12- both teams need a point guard, and one of them will grab Augistin to be their lead guard of the future.

Danilo Galinari, F, Italy

Danilo Galinari, the 6'9 forward from Italy, is easily the top international prospect in this years draft. In my limited exposure to Galinari, and what I've seen and read about him, he is a classic point forward- a big man who can bring the ball up the court and run an offense. He is billed as a reliable shooter and a sharp passer who doesn't offer much on the boards or on defense. I'd compare him to Mike Dunleavy (this isn't a knock on Galinari- Dunleavy has developed into a very solid player). He probably won't be a star, but will still be a good pro. The issue with Galinari, as it is with most international players, is that nobody really knows too much about him. Any numbers or tape that you can see are against a completely different level of competition, and very few teams have had the chance to see him in person because his agent is controlling his accessibility in an attempt to dictate where he is drafted. That said, he seems to have the talent to justify a mid to late lottery selection, and there are enough teams curious about him that he probably won't fall past 10.

Brandon Rush, G/F, Kansas

Kansas' Brandon Rush is a solid prospect who may not have the ceiling of some of the other players in the draft, but will be able to start from Day 1. At 6'6, he is solidly built and has great size for the shooting guard and small forward positions. Rush does a little of everything, but his sweet shooting stroke is the trait that defines Rush to teams. Aside from having the ability to easily hit NBA 3s, he is a very smart player on both ends of the ball. He has a good handle, and while he won't bring the ball up, he can navigate a pick and roll as well as any swingman. He is also a solid rebounder, and a team player who is just as comfortable carrying the scoring load as he is deferring to a teammate with a better matchup. I see him as a Michael Redd type player, who could average 20+ points per game in a starring role or contribute as a role player on a better team. The biggest knock on Rush is that he's probably already as good as he's going to get, which makes Rush especially attractive for teams that are trying to win right now, such as the Blazers, Suns, Magic and Hornets. Given that fact, I think that Rush gets taken in the early teens by a team slotted in that range or someone who trades up to get him.

Darrell Arthur, F, Kansas

Darrell Arthur, also out of Kansas, is a true 4 who has seen his stock take a hit over the last week or 2. At 6'9 he has a good, not great body for the NBA game, but is a versatile offensive weapon who could grow into a very good player. As of right now, he can hit the mid-range jumper consistently, take his man off the dribble from the high post, andis a good finisher. Like most young big men, Arthur needs to add strength, concentrate more on the defensive end and put more effort into his rebounding. I compare Arthur to another Jayhawks power forward, Drew Gooden- lots of talent but doesn't always put it together as well as he could. That said, Gooden is a solid starting power forward in the NBA, and isn't a bad player to be compared to. I think that the original projections for Arthur, the high lottery, was a bit of a stretch, and he has settled down in the 10-15 range, which is more realistic for him. Whoever gets Arthur will get spotty production from him for the first year or 2, but could find themselves with a legitimate offensive weapon down the road.

Mario Chalmers, G, Kansas

The 3rd Jayhawk expected to go in the first round is Mario Chalmers. At 6'1, Chalmers is a point guard who doesn't have the explosiveness or potential as the top guys, but I think will still be a good NBA player. He is quick but not fast, and relies on his basketball smarts instead of raw talent to make plays. He is also a strong shooter with a flair for the dramatic (just ask Memphis) and is a reliable ballhandler, but is just as comfortable playing off the ball. He is a good defensive player who collects steals by stripping his man or jumping into passing lanes. Unfortunately, at his size and speed, playng shooting guard isn't really an option for Chalmers, so he'll need to be in the right situation to make an impact. I compare him to Daniel Gibson, who is a similar build and skill set to Chalmers, and has LeBron to do the ball-handling while he spots up on the perimeter. Chalmers was originally viewed as a late first-rounder, but a few teams have been making noise about him recently, and he looks like a mid-first rounder who could even sneak his way into the late lottery, depending on how early Westbrook and Augustin get taken. 

Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State

Ohio State’s Kosta Koufos is a player who has been shooting up the boards recently. A 7’1 center, Koufos has a classic European offensive game. He has range almost out to NBA 3, but also added a more traditional low-post game during the past year. The biggest issue with Koufos is his athleticism- he does a fine job getting up and down the court, but he doesn’t get much elevation when he finishes around the basket. It’s not a huge issue since he has good body control and understands how to position himself, but it also means that he doesn’t offer much as a shot-blocker. I think he most resembles Troy Murphey, and would be best paired with a more athletic big to complement his style and skills. He has supposedly been dominating other big men in the team workouts, and will most likely be a late lottery pick.

DeAndre Jordan, C, Texas A&M

DeAndre Jordan, the 7-footer from Texas A&M, is the classic case of size selling in the draft. Someone of his size and athletic ability should have dominated in high school and in college, but he spent most of his time at Texas A&M on the bench, unable to even produce against teams without any players close to his size. That said, Jordan is huge, and has the ridiculous wingspan that scouts are looking for. Wherever he is taken, it will be at least 2 years before Jordan can be a regular contributor. He has drawn comparisons to Dwight Howard coming out of high school, but Jordan isn't nearly the physical specimen that Howard is. A better comparison is Andrew Bynum- very mobile for someone that size, but still has a ton to learn about the game. Before his injury last year (his 3rd year), Bynum looked like he had put it together and become a legitimate starting center, so there is hope for Jordan, and that fact alone will give teams faith when drafting him. That said, Jordan doesn't seem to have the drive or work ethic to make himself better, and for someone who has so far to go, taking him is a big risk. Initially he was looked at as a top 5-7 pick, but now he might not even get picked in the lottery. Jordan is an example of everything that is wrong with the draft process, but it seems that teams are more aware of that now than they ever have been, and I think Jordan will end up being taken in the late teens or early 20s.

Robin Lopez, F/C, Stanford

Robin Lopez, the twin brother of Brook, does basically everything that his brother doesn't. Robin plays an Anderson Varejau type of game, based around hustle and energy. He works hard on the defensive end, showing hard on screens, actively looks to block shots and works hard for rebounds. His offensive game is currently limited to put-back dunks and beating his man down the floor for easy baskets, but if Brook's play is any indication, he still has room to be a reliable offensive player. Although his stock is somewhere in the late teens/early 20s, I think that Robin will be a very good player- unlike most hustle guys who play down low (like Varajau), Robin is a legit 7-footer. Teams who don't need another offensive weapon, such as the Wizards or Warriors, should really give Robin Lopez a look.

Donte Greene, F, Syracuse 

Donte Greene, the 6'9 forward from Syracuse, is another player who could have used another year in college. He has a good body, is very athletic, especially for his size, and is a great 3-point shooter. But at this point, that's really all Greene brings to the table. He has some versatility, as he can play either forward spot, but he might also be a tweener who isn't quick enough to guard 3s and isn't strong enough to guard 4s. That said, the potential is there, and there's always a place in the league for someone that size who can shoot from distance. He reminds me of Rashard Lewis, who came straight from high school, and has become a good player. Greene seems like the Warriors type of player, and that's probably the earliest he could get picked. If he doesn't go there or to the Suns at 15, he might have a bit of a wait, as most of the teams picking in the teens are trying to win now. If he stayed in school another year with a good, young Syracuse team and worked on his post game and attacking off the dribble, he could have been a top 5-10 pick next year.

Marreese Speights, F/C, Florida

Marreese Speights is a 6'10 center from Florida. He is a strongly built player who moves well for his size, and already has a fairly developed post game. He is a good defender, and uses his huge hands to rebound well on both ends. The problems with Speights that he isn't quite big enough or a good enough athlete to play center full-time, and his face-up skills and defensive mobility isn't quite good enough to play power forward full-time. That said, Speights has enough talent to get him on the court, and I'm sure that he will be able to produce immediately on the right team (Sixers come to mind) while expanding his game. There are several other players with his size and skill set that have made an impact in the league, the best of which is Elton Brand. Assuming Speights works hard, there's no reason he can't be as good as Brand. However, teams don't seem to be too sure about Speights, and his draft stock has fallen into the mid to late teens. Whoever takes him probably won't get too much production right away, but could end up with a great post player in a league where true post men are becoming a rarity.

Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky

Courtney Lee, a 6’5 shooting guard from Western Kentucky, is an interesting prospect to me. He was billed as a first-round prospect all season, and his team made a surprising run in the NCAA Tournament as a 13th seed. However, Lee really wasn’t a huge difference maker in the tournament- his teammate Tyrone Brazelton (also in the draft but not expected to be taken) was the one carrying the team. That said, there are several teams in the late first who have been working out Lee, and it seems like he will certainly be taken in somewhere in the 20s. He is a solid athlete, a good shooter who is noted for his quick release, and is also a capable ball-handler. Given his size and skill set, I think he projects to be a Cuttino Mobley type of player. Depending on the team, he should be able to step in and play right away.

JaVale McGee, C, Nevada

JaVale McGee, out of Nevada, is another young 7-footer who is at least a year away. He is a great athlete for a 7-footer, probably the fastest in the draft, but doesn’t have an NBA-ready body yet. His offensive game isn’t really developed yet either (notice a trend?), although he does have a reliable jump shot with decent range (reportedly out to college 3s). He is a good shot-blocker and rebounder, but he still relies too much on his athleticism and size as opposed to strength and position- that won’t work at the pro level. Down the road I could see him as a center in the Pau Gasol mold, but it will be several years before he reaches that point. His position in the draft is pretty unpredictable- he could be anywhere from the mid-teens through the end of the first round. But there are enough teams that could use a big, skilled center, and someone will grab him before he falls too far. 

Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown

Georgetown’s towering 7’2 center Roy Hibbert is a player who’s stock has been all over the place for a solid two years now. After being practically guaranteed a top-10 pick last year, he pulled out of the draft to return for his senior year at Georgetown. Now he will most likely be taken in the early teens, but it seems like teams are considering taking Hibbert over some of the less established bigs. He doesn’t have star potential, but he is a known commodity who will be able to step in as a regular contributor, and even a starter for some teams, right away. Hibbert’s biggest issues are that he is not a good athlete, is not very strong, and isn’t as dominant of a defensive presence as he should be. Offensively, however, Hibbert is a very good passer for a big man, and can work out of the high or low post with a face-up and post-up game. If he continues to get more range on his jumper, I think that Hibbert could have a solid career as a Zydrunas Ilgauskas type of player.

Chris Douglas-Roberts, G/F, Memphis

Chris Douglas-Roberts, the 6'7 swingman from Memphis, is volume scorer expected to go late in the first round. CDR has an unorthodox game that reminds me of Antawn Jamison or Tayshaun Prince, only as a perimeter player. He is a slasher who uses a variety of scoop shots, runners and a streaky jump shot to score points. His unconventional game and wiry build (which is very similar to Prince as well) doesn't make CDR a soft player, however. He is an aggressive competitor who does what it takes to win- usually this means scoring, but in the National Championship game against Kansas, Douglas-Roberts took on the task of guarding Brandon Rush the entire game. I'm not really sure how his game will translate into the NBA, but I think that he will be able to use his creativity to remain an effective scorer. It looks like he will be drafted in the late first round, which I think is a good thing for CDR, because it will allow him to find a niche as a bench scorer who doesn't have too much pressure on him.

The Champs

Truly an amazing season for the Celtics. They were the best team in the league since the first week of the season, and even though they struggled a little at the beginning of the playoffs, they proved how dominant they were against the West's best team in the Lakers. Because of the way the Celtics turned their fortunes around- trading a ton of assets for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, two proven stars- I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one team try to pull off something similar this off-season. Also, since the Celtics won with such a dominant defense, I'd also expect several teams to really try and commit themselves on the defensive end over the summer. The NBA, like the NFL, is a copycat league, and when one team proves they can win a certain way, other teams are bound to follow. 

As for the "Big 3" that Boston put together, I think this season and championship really solidifies the legacies of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, who were all All-Stars many times over but had never even reached the NBA Finals before this year. 

Ray Allen put his name in the short list of the best shooters of all time. He already held the single season record for most 3 pointers made, as well as being second on the all-time list, and his 22 3's in the Finals was a Finals record. It also showed that while he could never win a championship if he was the team's best player, that he was capable of carrying a team for stretches, as he did for this Celtics team, as well as being a vital cog in a championship team. 

Kevin Garnett has his place in history as one of the most dominant big men of all time, especially on the defensive end. Although his record of getting it done in the postseason still isn't phenomenal- there were times throughout the playoffs where the Celtics really needed more from KG- his 26 points and 14 rebounds in the Game 6 clincher really went a long way in quieting those critics. But more importantly, it was because of Garnett that the Celtics were the best team in the league in the regular season. He changed the culture in Boston, adding an intimidation factor as well as a tremendous defensive presence that really made them a force to be reckoned with.

Finally, Paul Pierce firmly added his name as one of the greatest Celtics of all time. Already high up statistically for most of the franchise's records, Pierce put together one of the most remarkable playoff runs in Celtics history. Boston is the only place that Pierce has ever played, and he takes great pride in being a Boston Celtic. In this era of the NBA, it is extremely rare for any player, let alone a star player, to be on one team his entire career. Besides Pierce, the only players that I can think of that have played for the same team in their career (minimum of 8 years) are Kobe with the Lakers, and Tim Duncan on the Spurs. KG fell into that category before this season, and there are a handful of players in the 5-6 year range, but to do it for as long as Pierce has is really hard to do. It was a tremendous accomplishment for Pierce, and I know that there's nobody happier than him right now.

Can they do it again next year? Before the inevitable off-season shakeup, my best guess is that the Celtics will at least make it back to the Finals next season. The Big 3 probably has one, maybe 2 good years left in them, and their other 2 starters, Rondo and Perkins, are only going to get better. But it is very likely that they lose the invaluable James Posey, and they probably won't have PJ Brown or Sam Cassell back either. That said, I can't see their win total dropping too far below 60, if at all, and certainly see them as the team to beat right now.