It has always been my theory for the draft that you should take the best player available, or the player that your team has rated the highest, regardless of position. Every year team's reach for a player at a position of "need", and end up not getting anything in return (think Sheldon Williams). Obviously there are exceptions, for instance the Hornets don't need to draft a young point guard or the Magic don't really need a center, but for the most part if you pick a good player who can contribute, he'll be able to find his way onto the floor. Also, it has always been my philosophy that having "combo" players (negatively referred to as tweeners) isn't a bad thing either- certain players, even if they don't have a defined position, will contribute wherever they are. My two favorite examples are the Hawks forward tandem of Marvin Williams and Josh Smith (neither is a true 3 or 4, but they're both big and athletic and effectively defend both forward spots), and the Golden State backcourt of Baron Davis and Monta Ellis (both can handle the ball, play off the ball, and defend either guard spot depending on the matchups). Some teams stay away from this philosophy, but there's something to be said for having as much talent as possible on the floor at one time.
With all the trades and indecision among teams leading up to tomorrow's draft, I didn't think it would make sense for someone without any insider information, such as myself, to simply put up a pick-by-pick mock draft. Instead, I have written up what I think each team in the top half of the draft should do, including who they might pick, and trades that they might consider. I'll also briefly cover a few other teams and possibilities.
A quick note- this is another long post. If you don't want to read the entire thing, go ahead and skip to teams or situations that interest you- I won't be offended. I really enjoy writing these, and put a lot of time into them, and I appreciate all of you taking the time to visit this site, regardless of how much you actually read.
Chicago Bulls
Regardless of which direction the Bulls go in with the first overall pick, Rose or Beasley, they will have a serious log-jam at that position. Right now, they have Kirk Hinrich, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon, Larry Hughes, Thabo Sefolosha, Andres Nocioni, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah and Drew Gooden. Add Rose or Beasley to that list, and that's 11 players who could be starters in the league next year. It's one thing to have depth, but the Bulls are looking at serious chemistry issues with so many players looking for big minutes. That said, if the Bulls can handle this correctly, they will be in a great position. They should be seeking 2 or 3 for 1 type of deals which would consolidate their talent. Assuming they take Rose, which I think they will, they should be looking to move Hinrich, preferably for a big man. I had written that they should try to get Jermaine O'Neal, but he just got traded to the Raptors for TJ Ford, so that deal is no longer a possibility. The Bulls probably won't make their deal on draft day, simply to capitalize on the media hype surrounding the #1 pick, and also to let the dust clear from all the draft day trades.
The Bulls have spent several seasons accumulating talent, but as last season proved, having lots of talent doesn't necessarily translate into wins. They need to look at all trade possibilities, with no one player being untouchable (excluding the 1st pick), and simply find the best talent available. I think Rose is the pick for them, but taking Beasley would be just as good of a pick, and either way the Bulls should be right back in the hunt next year.
Miami Heat
The Heat are also in a great situation. The player that they want the most, Rose, will probably be taken by the Bulls, but they have a pretty good consolation prize in Beasley, who is general considered the most talented player in the draft. However, Pat Riley seems to be turned off by Beasley's immature attitude. I noted in my player analysis that Beasley likes to joke around, but I think Riley is wrong in his assessment that he doesn't take basketball seriously. Either way, Beasley is a tremendous asset, either as a player or as trade bait, and the Heat should have lots of trade options available to them. If I was the GM for Miami and had committed to making the trade, I would be most interested in the rumored trade with Memphis, which would essentially be the number 2 pick and a player that Miami wants to get rid of (probably Mark Blount) for the package of Kyle Lowry, Mike Miller, and the 5th pick. Recently I've heard that the deal could also be the 5th pick and Mike Conley (the 4th overall pick last year) instead of Lowry. Assuming that the Conley deal is too steep of an asking price for the Grizzlies, I think that the Heat would still be well off with a core of Lowry, Wade, Miller (probably as a 6th man), Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem and the 5th pick, probably a big like Brook Lopez or Kevin Love. This gives the Heat the ability to play fast (with Marion at the 4), or more of a defense-based game, as Lowry, Marion and Haslem are all strong defenders at their positions.
Even with several enticing trade offers, the Heat would still be best off keeping Beasley and trying to move Haslem for a young point guard (I think the Grizzlies would still be interested in a straight-up Haslem for Lowry swap). Beasley and Marion would be a great pair at forward, and since both of them can play the 3 and 4 (and are very good rebounders), Marion would be able to guard the opposing teams better offensive threat while Beasley does the scoring. A core of Wade-Beasley-Marion, regardless of their surrounding players, would be a very dangerous team, and I don't think the Heat should mess with that possibility.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are in a tough position because they are in need of help at every position. There is no real identity to the team, and the only player who has proven that he can produce at the NBA level is Al Jefferson. They also have Randy Foye, a combo guard who hasn't really shown that he can play the point or off-guard especially well. That said, OJ Mayo is pretty clear-cut as the third best prospect, and the T-Wolves would be smart to grab him and play him and Foye in the backcourt together. Mayo is bigger and stronger, while Foye is smaller and faster, so I don't think it would be too radical to pair them together. The Wolves need talent, and Mayo has that. With a core of Foye, Mayo and Jefferson, the Wolves won't be competitive this year, but will at least have a foundation for the future.
Seattle Sonics
The Sonics, considering they could have had a top-2 pick and missed out in the lottery, are still in a good position. Like most teams drafting at the top, they don't need to look for one specific position. Their only 2 players who will be on the team a year or 2 from now are Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, two top-5 picks from last year who both have the versatility to play several positions. Because they need so many different things, the Sonics have several options to move up or down in the draft. They should try to capitalize on the Heat's indecision on Beasley, and it seems like they have offered Chris Wilcox and the 4th pick to the Heat for the #2. This would be a great move for the Sonics not only because Beasley is such a great player but also because Durant and Beasley have supposedly been extremely close friends for a long time. A core of Durant, Beasley and Green would be very dangerous, and like the TWolves, they won't be winning next year, so they will be able to add at least one more high pick to that core before challenging for the playoffs.
If the Sonics stay at 4, they will have the luxury of choosing between the several talented guards in the draft, as well as center Brook Lopez, who would also be a good option there. Any of the Mayo (if available), Westbrook, Jerryd Bayless or Eric Gordon group would be a good piece to add to the team. They also have the option of capitalizing on the hot stock of Westbrook and trying to add a slightly lower pick along with a young player for their pick, but there don't seem to be many options like that for the Sonics, as all of the top 10 teams don't have any assets that they'd be comfortable moving. Either the Sonics can move up and get Beasley at 2, or they stay at 4 and most likely take Westbrook.
The Sonics also have the 24th overall pick. They were thought to be taking an international player with the pick, but given the recent trend of international players taken late in the first round staying overseas, I think the Sonics would be better off taking a guard like Courtney Lee. Usually I would say they should take a risk on a center like DeAndre Jordan, but the Sonics have taken unproven young centers several times in the past few years, and none are even close to panning out.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are a real unknown coming into the draft. They have 3 young, talented point guards (Conley, Lowry and Javaris Crittendon) and a rising star in Rudy Gay, who can play the 2 or the 3. Gay is the only untouchable, otherwise the entire roster (even Conley, which I didn't expect) could be had given the right offer. Sitting at 5, the best options for the Grizzlies would be Eric Gordon, who could develop as another big-time scorer along with Gay, or Brook Lopez, who would give the Grizzlies a legitimate option down low. There is a lot of talk about this being a landing spot for Kevin Love, but I think this is one team where Love's talent would be wasted, and it is still too high for him anyway. With all those point guards and no real roster set-up, the Grizzlies NEED to make a trade. Their best move would be moving up to get Beasley, and if they can do that the franchise would be back on track on their rebuilding project.
If that deal falls through, they would be wise to trade down for a few picks and/or assets, and also looking to move one of their point guards along with sharpshooter Mike Miller. With that in mind, I think a great trade partner for the Grizzlies would be the Suns- they are looking for a small forward to split time with Grant Hill and a defensive-minded point guard to back up Steve Nash, as well as trying to move up in the draft to grab Russell Westbrook or Joe Alexander. There are several variations of this deal that could work, but the basic idea would be Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa (the Suns are trying to move both of them) for Kyle Lowry and Mike Miller. The Grizzlies 5th pick and the Suns 15th pick could also be included (one or the other, maybe both), but the keys here are that Miller would be a perfect fit with the Suns, and the Grizzlies would be able to get some more established young talent in Barbosa and Diaw. If this trade is made with no picks involved, Memphis could take Lopez at 5, and go with a starting line-up of Conley, Barbosa, Gay, Diaw and Lopez- maybe not a playoff contender, but certainly a start.
New York Knicks
The Knicks, as usual, are in a horrible situation. Their roster is filled with overpriced players who hog the ball and don't play defense. Their only real goal right now should be clearing cap space for the summer of 2010 (when LeBron is a free agent), but they have had so many bad seasons the past few years that they have to give their fans some hope. Also, they just hired Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni, who isn't there to try and lose games for the next two years. So what do the Knicks do? The draft is full of exciting combo guards, but the Knicks have had nothing but trouble with combo guards, and many of the players available at 6 duplicate their current crop of guards- Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson and Fred Jones. The one guard who doesn't duplicate what the Knicks already have is Russell Westbrook, who looks like he will be a true point guard who plays defense and does the little things that win games. Of course, Westbrook's stock has been soaring and it's unlikely at this point that he's available at 6, meaning the Knicks would have to trade up to get him. The only players that the Knicks could trade to move up, however, are the two assets that they would be interested in keeping long-term- Nate Robinson, who ironically would be perfect paired up with Westbrook (Westbrook could guard shooting guards but run the point while Robinson could play off the ball but still guard point guards), and David Lee, a rugged and athletic big man who plays defense and rebounds, things that Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry both seem allergic to. Unless they can package Lee or Robinson with one of the players they are trying to get rid of (namely Randolph and Marbury), the Knicks should stay put and draft whoever is available between Westbrook and athletic forward Joe Alexander. Alexander, like Westbrook, is a great athlete who does things other than score. With new GM Donnie Walsh running the show now, I'd expect the Knicks to draft the best player available (praying that it's Westbrook), and then looking to make drastic changes in the next few weeks. This franchise is just as lost as it has ever been, and there is no short-term fix in sight.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are yet another team with no clear direction at the moment, but at least they are set up to have a good draft and be able to answer a lot of questions on draft night. Their best players are all bigs (Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, Al Thorton and center Chris Kaman), and they have virtually no talent at guard. Sitting at 7, they should have their pick of a few guards, most likely Eric Gordon or Jerryd Bayless, who is reportedly going to fall out of the top 6. If they stay where they are now, either Gordon or Bayless (or Westbrook if he somehow lasts this long) will be a good pick, and will immediately give them some talent with the ability to play now while still looking to the future. However, the status of Maggette and Brand are in question, and they look to be trying to move one, if not both, depending on the offer. The Heat love Elton Brand, who would be great alongside Dwyane Wade, and the trade of Brand and the 7th pick for Shawn Marion and the 2nd pick has been rumored more than once. Ironically, the Clippers one of the few teams who would probably take OJ Mayo with the 2nd pick because of the logjam they have at forward. Obviously this would be a mistake, as their promising combo forward, Al Thorton (their first round pick last year) is actually 4 years older than Beasley, and Beasley is probably better than Thorton already. So assuming they can make the trade and get Marion and Beasley (who, as I wrote earlier, would make a great tandem), they would still have to move Maggette, who wants out of LA, and Thorton, who would be great as a 3rd forward in that rotation, but is too valuable of a piece to keep in that role. There have been talks of Maggette being traded to the Suns for Leandro Barbosa, which has had mixed reactions, but Thorton for Barbosa would make more sense. Either way, Maggette and/or Thorton should be able to bring in a good, young guard or a high draft pick. I would hope that the Clippers experiment with all of these scenarios and look to be very active on draft night. Maybe their moves pan out, maybe they don't, but for a sad franchise like the Clippers, they should at least try to make something happen.
Milwaukee Bucks
The lower you go in the lottery, the sadder the stories get. The Bucks are a team that, even if they landed the #1 pick, would still be years away from contending. They at least have a roster that can resemble an NBA team, but if they want to make the playoffs, or make a serious run, they need a serious makeover. Right now they are built around shooting guard Michael Redd, a deadly 3-point shooter who has expanded his game to become a very good offensive weapon. The problem with Redd is that you will never win a championship with him as your best player. You could argue that they have a solid roster, but none of their players, other than Redd, ranks in the top 10 at their position, and without a major change they will be fighting for the last playoff spot in the East, and picking in the 8-15 range, every year. Milwaukee is also at a major disadvantage because they are not an attractive free-agent destination, so they will need to overpay for any player they sign, or trade for talent that they didn't draft. They wasted a huge opportunity in 2006 when they took Andrew Bogut with the number 1 pick, instead of Chris Paul or Deron Williams. So what do the Bucks do this year? It looks like Joe Alexander will be available with the 8th pick, and if they stay put, Alexander would at least fill out their roster to the point that they would have a good, solid starter at each position. But I think the Bucks need to do more, making a drastic change that makes them a playoff contender immediately, or going into full rebuilding mode, which would likely involve moving Redd and starting over. I'm pretty sure that the Bucks aren't really looking to do either, as I haven't heard Milwaukee involved in any trade talks, so for now I'd assume they take Alexander (or Galinari, depending on who falls to them) at 8, maybe make an off-season deal, and hope for better luck in the lottery next year.
Charlotte Bobcats
It's sad that a team that has Michael Jordan in the front office and Larry Brown as coach can't get any coverage. The Bobcats have a new facility, and a few good players, but nobody outside of Charlotte seems to know that they even exist. The Bobcats seem to have an idea of what they want to do, and since they traded a very good young prospect (Brandan Wright) for a proven player (Jason Richardson) last year on draft day, it seems like they are trying to win now. They have a decent core, with Ray Felton, Richardson, Gerald Wallace (probably their best player) and Emeka Okafor, but they are constantly plagued by injuries and are another team that looks to be stuck in the late lottery cycle unless they make a move. They really struck out 2 years ago when they took Adam Morrison 3rd overall (and missed out on Brandon Roy and Tyrus Thomas, among others), and if that pick turned into a productive player the Bobcats could be a playoff team. Other than their core guys, they don't really have any tradable assets, so I think they sit at 9 and see who falls to them. With all the shake-up up top, they should be able to land a big man to pair with Okafor (they'd be happy with Brook Lopez or Kevin Love), or if they're really lucky one of the guards falls to them. A player like Russell Westbrook or Jerryd Bayless would be a great fit in Charlotte, as they'd be able to back up both guard spots, and provide defense and energy (Westbrook) or scoring (Bayless) off the bench before taking up a starting spot down the road.
The one wild card for Charlotte is Gerald Wallace. When he hits the free agent market next year he's probably going to want more money than the Bobcats can (or will) pay him. He also happens to be exactly what the Suns are looking for, as a versatile, proven small forward, and if the Bobcats can pry Barbosa and Diaw (and maybe even the 15th pick) from Phoenix, it would really help the team in the coming years. Not sure if this has been discussed at all, but I think something along those lines would definitely be considering for Charlotte.
It was just reported that the Bobcats have traded a future first round pick for the Nuggets pick, the 20th overall pick. I'd expect them to try and grab one of the young bigs falling down the board, like JaVale McGee or DeAndre Jordan.
New Jersey Nets
The Nets, like the Knicks, are really gearing up for the summer of 2010, to try and have enough cap roop to sign LeBron James. The Nets are in a slightly better position, however, because they have a decent foundation already that should be able to win some games this year. Their biggest needs are in the front court, where they will hope that Brook Lopez or Danilo Galinari fall to them. They drafted defensive specialist Sean Williams last year, and he would give them freedom to draft a more offensive-minded player like Galinari. The Nets are also very active in trade discussions. While Vince Carter isn’t going anywhere because of his huge contract, Richard Jefferson simply hasn’t worked well the past few years on the Nets, and really needs a change of scenery. The Suns are especially interested in him, where the same 3 pieces (Barbosa, Diaw, 15th pick) could all be included in a deal. The Blazers are also interested in a true small forward like Jefferson, and have several young players and draft picks that they could offer. My guess is they try to move Jefferson, and then use their draft picks (they also have the 21st pick) to try and move up higher up in the lottery.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have already addressed their biggest need going into the draft- finding a point guard not named Jamaal Tinsley- by trading Jermaine O'Neal to the Raptors for TJ Ford. Tinsley, in the rare occasions that he was healthy, was a cancer to the Pacers, along with the last remaining tie to the Palace Brawl. Although it rarely happens in the NBA, the Pacers could cut Tinsley, getting nothing in return, and be better off as a team. With Ford now locked in at the point, and Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger locked in as the two untouchables on the team, the Pacers will probably be looking for a big man to pair with Troy Murphey in the frontcourt. They also picked up the Raptors 17th pick in the O'Neal trade, so my guess is that they still use their 11th pick on DJ Augustin, who can back up Ford for now before taking over down the road, and going big with their later pick. Roy Hibbert, Robin Lopez, JJ Hickson, and draft sleeper Jason Thompson are all possibilities here.
Like I said, I love the Ford trade for Indiana. Ford is a true point guard, and O'Neal hasn't been productive for the Pacers for at least two years now. The team is going in a new direction, and while they will try to maximize what they get in return for Tinsley (Shawne Williams is another player Indiana wouldn't mind parting ways with), simply getting rid of him is the more important thing for the Pacers. Depending on how their draft plays out, the Pacers should be in the playoffs within the next year or two.
Sacramento Kings
I'm not really sure what to do with the Kings. They remind me of the Bucks- lots of players with NBA talent, but not enough to seriously compete anytime soon. Their best player, Kevin Martin, is still young enough that he can lead the team into a new era, but their best trade asset, Ron Artest, won't bring back that much in return. The most glaring need for the Kings is at point guard, so I think DJ Augustin and Mario Chalmers are possibilities there, but I'm not sure that the Kings want to be drafting for this upcoming season. They seem like the team that should take advantage of the indecision with the more unproven prospects- this seems like a good place for Darrell Arthur or Anthony Randolph to be taken. I haven't heard the Kings mentioned in any trades, so whoever they take with this pick will be a good indicator of the direction the Kings are trying to go in for the next few years.
Portland Trail Blazers
Teams like the Blazers make it fun to follow the NBA. The last two drafts, Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard has pulled off numerous draft-day trades, and now has a foundation of Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and last years first overall pick Greg Oden, along with several other young, promising players. The Blazers have a similar problem to the Bulls- too many players. Not only that, but the Blazers have picked up the Hornets 27th overall pick. So what does all this mean? That the Blazers are looking to trade again. Portland is looking for a point guard and a small forward. They, like everyone else, are extremely interested in Russell Westbrook and Joe Alexander, or picking up a veteran small forward, such as Richard Jefferson or Gerald Wallace. It's impossible to say what the Blazers will actually end up doing, but they have the assets to pull of almost any deal, and odds are they make some noise on draft day.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors, only a year after their amazing run at the end of the 2007 season, seem to be in disarray again. Their two best young players, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, are restricted free agents, and their best player, Baron Davis, is entering the final year of his contract. The are set in what style of basketball they will play, however, which means that they will either draft the best wing athlete available or a big man who can shoot from the outside. The two hottest names for Golden State are Kosta Koufos and, surprisingly, Rider's Jason Thompson. Seems like they will be more focused on keeping their current team intact as opposed to looking for trades that would shake things up.
Phoenix Suns
As already discussed here, the Suns are actively looking for a trade partner, and are dangling their pick, as well as Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw, as bait. If they stay at 15, the most likely pick is Brandon Rush, who could step in at the 3 immediately. If not Rush, could also take Mario Chalmers to backup Nash or Donte Greene, who could fill the designated shooter role that James Jones had success in a few years ago.
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers are another team that should be able to take advantage of the slipping big men in the draft. I'd guess Darrell Arthur, Marreese Speights or Anthony Randolph is the pick here. They could also look at Brandon Rush if he's somehow still on the board, as he'd be a great compliment to Andre Iguodala, but he most likely won't be here at this spot. They could also take Donte Greene, a tall, athletic shooter who isn't ready to play quite yet, but could pan out down the road. The Sixers had success with a similar player, Thaddeus Young, in last years draft. The two of them could form a solid tandem down the road.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are one team who don't need anything that this pick can give them- I wouldn't be surprised if they move this pick for cash or a future pick. If not, their most pressing need would be a big man who's main priorities are defense and rebounding, such as JJ Hickson or Robin Lopez.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs should be looking to package this pick, along with Anderson Varejau (who wants out of Cleveland) for a scorer to put with LeBron. Even if they only move up to the early teens (maybe to the Kings), Brandon Rush seems like a great player to pair with LeBron. Staying at 19, Donte Green could provide some shooting off the bench at the 3 and 4 positions. If they wanted to get more creative, they could see what Milwaukee wants in return for Michael Redd- the Cavs are short on assets, but Varejau, Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract, Daniel Gibson and the pick could all be included in a deal. I'm really not sure what the Bucks would even ask in for in this situation, but it's definitely worth a try for the Cavs.
Orlando Magic
The Magic have two needs- a legitimate starter at shooting guard and another big man to back up Howard and ease some of the rebounding load off of Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. They should be able to fill one of these needs with the 22nd pick- Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts would both be good options at shooting guard, and Marreese Speights and JJ Hickson could both work at the 4. Speights would actually be a great pick for the Magic- if he's on the board, I think he's the pick.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz don't really need much, but a true 7-footer would help them, especially if they're going to lose Carlos Boozer next year, when he's a free agent. Roy Hibbert and JaVale McGee are solid options here, if either is available. Even though I haven't mentioned him much up to this point, this might be a place where Donte Greene could be taken. He's young and not ready to play yet, but he's tall, athletic and a great shooter.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets don't really need any one thing here. Someone is bound to fall, and the Rockets should just sit and take the best player available. Bill Walker hasn't been talked about up to this point- questions about his knee have really hurt his draft stock and the 25th pick might be a little early for him- but he's a tough player, and I think he'd be a worthwhile risk for the Rockets. Donte Greene and Chris Douglas-Roberts are two other players who could work for the Rockets as well.
San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics
All three of these teams are just waiting to see who will fall down to them on draft day, and given the chaos that invariably will happen, someone of value will fall to this range. The Spurs will be looking for some young athletes to add to their aging roster, the Pistons always take a tough player (maybe Bill Walker) and the Celtics probably don't have any real requirements, but a true 7-footer could be the pick for them.
I will be providing some last-minute thoughts before the draft tomorrow- the trade rumors will be coming even faster at that point, and some actual deals will probably have happened by that time as well.
Thanks again for reading, for those of you who made it this far, and please don't hesitate to give me any feedback, positive or negative.
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