NBA Finals Preview

Quick Note: This entry is pretty long, and as most of you know, I have a tendency to be long-winded, especially when it comes to sports. But what can I say, it's the NBA Finals and I'm excited.

Plenty has been said about the history of this rivalry, but when it comes down to it, these two current teams have absolutely no history of playing each other- even their two meetings this year were before the Gasol trade (as unfair as it was, it still happened), which is when the Lakers really redefined their team and became the title favorite that they are today. It really isn’t noteworthy that the Celtics won both head to head games this season (the Cavs beat the Spurs in both regular season meetings last year before getting swept in the finals), but I do find it a little more interesting that Kobe was awful in both meetings. 

Going position by position before getting to the series prediction…

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs Derek Fisher

As the only true point guard on the Celtics roster (Sam Cassell really doesn’t count at this point), it is obviously important that Rondo plays well. I really love watching Rondo when he is playing well and doing the things that he does best- providing full-court defensive pressure, tracking down loose balls, and setting up teammates with his penetration. His speed and open court abilities on both ends will be a big factor in this series, because the Lakers love to get up and down the court. When he’s not handling the ball, Rondo needs to be aggressive cutting towards the basket instead of settling for jumpers, which are usually the equivalent of a coin toss even if he’s wide open.

Fisher’s main job is going to be keeping a body on Rondo, and hitting open shots when the opportunity strikes. He doesn’t do too much ball-handling anymore, because Kobe and Odom dominate the ball in the triangle offense, but his experience will be vital in bringing the ball up the court against Rondo’s relentless pressure. Something that I’ve noticed Fisher doing over the course of the playoffs, almost to a fault, is putting his head down and taking it himself on the break. I have to think that these are instructions coming from Jackson, because I’ve seen him make the wrong read several times in this situation. Since he’s so strong with the ball, he can usually convert, especially against the weaker Rondo, but it’s still something to watch if he blows a few of these.

Shooting Guard: Ray Allen vs Kobe Bryant

The book on Ray Allen, especially after the up-and-down playoffs that he has endured so far, is pretty simple. If he is hitting his 3s, he is a dangerous offensive weapon who requires constant attention. When he has been on, he has gotten it done mostly in transition, picking his spots on the perimeter and hitting rhythm jumpers. The reason he can do this is because, even in his advanced age, Allen can get to the basket when he is played for the 3. It’s easy to forget because of how poorly he has played for most of the postseason, but Allen used to be a premier scorer who could hit the 3, knock down mid-range jumpers off the dribble, and finish at the rim. We have seen flashes of that in the Detroit series, after his phenomenal showdown with fellow UConn alum Rip Hamilton. The biggest problem with Allen in this series is that he will probably be defended by Kobe, who is very capable of completely shutting him down. If Allen isn’t offering anything on offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if Doc Rivers pulls him for defensive specialist James Posey.

As for Kobe, there’s not really anything I can say that you haven’t heard already. The best player in the world (now confirmed) is the happiest man on the planet right now, finally winning MVP and taking a team that is truly his to the Finals. Kobe has been simply phenomenal and has made it look relatively easy thus far. The Spurs used the Celtics-inspired strategy of making Kobe a jump-shooter, denying him from getting to the rim or the line, but Kobe made them pay from deep, and was fresh to finish the games. The biggest flaw in this strategy, to me, is that Kobe is so good that he can get anywhere he wants to shoot his jumper. He loves running to the corners of the paint, basically the charity stripe, and launching from there (essentially a lay-up for him). You’d think that the Celtics, after watching the tape on the Spurs series, would get physical with him, concede some points at the line, and try to wear him down. However, the Jazz, probably the most physical team in the league, tried this strategy and it didn’t really work either. As usual when defending Kobe, you just have to pick your poison and stick with it. I’m anticipating seeing Kobe play more defense in this series, as opposed to “guarding” Bruce Bowen as he did against the Spurs, but it won’t wear him out as much as people think. Kobe LOVES playing defense, is in better shape than anyone out there (remind you of anyone?), and right now he sees the light at the end of the tunnel. He’ll be doing everything in his power to bring this one home.

When looking at this match-up, don’t forget the old Kobe-Allen feud from a few years back. As even-keeled as Ray usually is, the two of them used to get real heated. I doubt that Kobe has forgotten about any of this, and will make it his job to make sure Allen doesn’t get a single clean look.

 

Small Forward: Paul Pierce vs Vlad Radmanovic 

Even with KG around, Paul Pierce is the real heart and soul of Boston. He’s still the captain, and in the elaborate Boston pre-game introductions, Pierce is still the last player announced. The biggest change I’ve seen from Pierce this season (which he promised before the season started) has been his defense. I’ve always been a fan of the all-around game of Pierce, but he has really taken it to another level with his play on the defensive end. He drew the near-impossible assignment of marking LeBron in the Cavs series, doing a good of a job as anyone, and continued it in the next round by completely annihilating Tayshaun Prince, who really didn’t make an impact the entire East Finals. I thought Prince was the most important player on the Pistons (maybe a bit dramatic), but Pierce’s physical play on both ends made him a complete non-factor. He draws another tough assignment here as the primary defender on Kobe, since Allen has no chance of staying with him. It’s been written that Pierce loves playing the Lakers, and is usually most on top of his game in LA, but I can’t think it will be easy going for him here. He’s going to really be working on defense the entire game, and LA has a variety of defenders to throw at him. That said, it means the world to Pierce to be representing the Celtics in the Finals, more than anyone else on the team, and you have to think that he’ll be up to the challenge.

I love how Jackson has defined the role for Radmanovic. He’s a talented player, but not as good as Vujacic or Walton. He really only plays the beginnings of the 1^st and 3^rd quarters, and seemingly only scoring in the first, before joining the bench unit for a few sporadic minutes. At 6’10”, he’s very mobile, as well as a strong shooter, and anything LA gets from Radmonovic is a bonus. He’ll start games guarding Paul Pierce, trying to use his far superior size to his advantage, but he’ll end up playing far fewer minutes than Walton (probably the best guy to guard Pierce) and Jackson’s new favorite closer, Sasha Vujacic.

 

Power Forward: Kevin Garnett vs Lamar Odom

The defensive player of the year is also making his first Finals appearance, and he’ll be the first to tell you how much it means to him. KG’s game is so much about intensity that it sometimes comes back to haunt him. The Maxiell block, as great of an individual play as it was, also came on what KG thought would be a momentum shifting play, and probably could have been avoided if he wasn’t going for the homerun dunk. That said, KG is a phenomenal player, and with Pierce picking up the slack in crunch time, KG can focus on impacting the game from his high post position on offense and his versatile defense. When his perimeter jumper is falling (he loves shooting it from anywhere one step inside the 3-point line), he’s capable of 30+ on any night. If it isn’t, which has happened a few times in the playoffs, he needs to be faster to go to the post. Odom isn’t as big or strong as KG, and Garnett will need to be selfish down low to exploit this matchup. He seems reluctant to bang at times, which I’ve always thought was cause for concern.

One of the most versatile players in the league, Odom has put it all together and is playing great basketball right now. He was a little shaky at points in the San Antonio series, but he also shined in big moments and was very much a factor in all of their wins. Many have said that as Odom goes, so go the Lakers (which isn’t always the case because Kobe can take over any game at any time), but either way, the Lakers have been happy with the results so far. The Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs didn’t have anyone to match up with Odom (I thought Ime Udoka and Andrei Kirilenko could have been used more on him), but Boston has the perfect answer in Garnett. KG is one of the few players in the league who is taller and stronger than Odom but can still stay with him. KG got the better of him in both regular season matchups, which was a problem because Odom was still the 2^nd scoring option for the Lakers at the time. With him playing 3^rd fiddle now, this shouldn’t be as much as an issue as long as Gasol is drawing attention in the middle. On defense, Odom goes from playing centerfield against non-threats Oberto & Horry to having to constantly play aggressively on KG. He will be put in lots of P/R situations, and he must be able to force Rondo (or Pierce) wide while still accounting for Garnett. While I’m not the first person to say it, I think it is a major plus for LA if Odom can play Garnett to a draw.

 

Center: Kendrick Perkins vs Pau Gasol

Perkins went from simply being the 5^th starter to a potential X-factor here over the course of the Pistons series. Against a big, strong and deep Pistons front line, Perkins shined, collecting rebounds on both ends, making himself available for easy finishes down low, and even acting as a formidable defensive presence. His matchup with Gasol will be tough because he gives up so much in height, length, and most importantly, foot speed. He really needs to utilize his size and power and make his presence known. Also, as his play has gotten better, his attitude has seemingly gotten worse, and the officials have shown that they’re not afraid to T the emotional young player up. He simply can’t make that kind of mental mistake against a team as good as the Lakers.

In stark contrast to the thick and powerful Perkins is the long and mobile Pau Gasol.  Gasol gets a lot of his points on the potent LA break, having a knack for leaking out and beating all the other big men down the floor. He also has made his presence felt on the offensive boards, getting numerous putbacks throughout the playoffs. Perkins needs to be aware of where Gasol is at all times, whether it means getting back in transition or putting a body on him to keep him off the boards. Gasol will be wary of going into the wide body of Perkins, so expect him to be involved in plenty of pick and rolls with Kobe, who loves to lob it to the rim and let Gasol come down with it. He’ll also to rely on moving without the basketball as opposed to getting deep post position to score. Defensively, Gasol is playing at a very high level. I thought he did a phenomenal job of playing Tim Duncan straight up, and Perkins will most likely not give him many problems in one-on-one matchups. Just like Perkins will have to account for him on the offensive glass, Gasol will have to make sure to put a body on Kendrick and make sure he times his jumps better, as I’ve seen him misjudge far too many balls off the rim.  He makes up for bad timing with his great hands and extremely long arms, but with every possession so valuable in the Finals, he has to be more careful in regulating the defensive boards.

 

Benches:

Celtics-

Swingman James Posey will usually be the first man off the bench for Boston, and also is the most recent winner of a championship (2 years ago with the Heat) playing in this series. His main role will presumably be guarding Kobe, although I think the Celtics could also go small and let him play Odom for stretches. Offensively, Posey can’t really handle the ball against any kind of pressure, and usually just floats around the perimeter looking for 3’s.

PJ Brown has been the first big man off the bench for the Celtics, and can play alongside KG or Perkins with equal effectiveness. He has shown that he can still get it done, playing physical defense and hitting enough midrange jumpers to keep the defense honest. You can tell that he knows what’s at stake here, and I’d expect Doc to lean as heavily as ever on the 15-year vet.

I’m hoping that Doc Rivers goes with Eddie House as the backup point guard, but House’s biggest problem is his ball-handling, and Flip Saunders was able to exploit it in the last series. Every time House entered the game, Lindsey Hunter checked in as well, harassing him the entire length of the court and completely taking him out of the series. I’ve always been an Eddie House fan, who is at his best when he’s playing within himself and hitting open 3’s. The Lakers don’t have anyone like Hunter that can expend all of his energy on a guy like House, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Phil Jackson gave Jordan Farmar a try in that role. The other “point guard” on the Celtics roster is Sam Cassell, who has played so poorly the entire playoffs that it would be a crime if he played more than 15 minutes the entire series. And I’m not exaggerating.

Glen Davis and Leon Powe will probably only see action if PJ Brown struggles against the energetic Ronny Turiaf. Powe was the 3^rd big for Boston all year (Brown wasn’t on the roster yet), but somehow has gotten beaten out by the rookie Davis for the fourth position over the course of these playoffs. Davis is simply too limited to make an impact, and Powe should really be the guy here, but with Rivers at the helm you never know.

The wild card on the Boston bench is Tony Allen, who I believe is questionable for the series (constantly hearing different reports on this one). If he’s healthy, he’s a strong and physical, while a bit undersized, 2-guard who has been used to defend Kobe in the past. If he’s dressed, he’ll probably be the guy to check Kobe in end-of-quarter situations to make sure the main guys don’t pick up any unnecessary fouls, and could find himself picking up some more minutes depending on his success on Bryant. He doesn’t really offer anything on offense, however, which will be the real reason he doesn’t play much.

Lakers-

The most recognizable and probably most hated of the Lakers strong bench, Sasha Vujacic has made a name for himself for his excessive emotions, relentless energy on defense, and deadly 3-point stroke. Always an X-factor, Vujacic must step up his offensive play on the road, where he seemingly always shoots a lower percentage. It has been on defense, however, where Vujacic has earned his time, something I definitely didn’t expect. He really bothered a less-than-100% Manu Ginobili in the Spurs series, and I expect him to do the same to Ray Allen here. He loves playing in front of the home crowd, where his antics are more readily accepted and he always looks more comfortable shooting the ball. If he’s playing well on either end, Jackson will slide Kobe to the 3 and let Sasha close out games in Radmanovic’s spot. 

Luke Walton, despite his decreased playing time as Vujacic emerged as the 6^th man, is a vital cog to the Lakers strong second unit. He can handle the ball in the halfcourt, hit the midrange jumper, and crash the offensive glass. On defense, he’s a strong, active body who will likely see extended time on Pierce. Depending on his success in this area, Walton could find himself finishing some games as well.

As the only real big man off the bench for LA, Ronny Turiaf has done a fantastic job. He has been underrated and criticized his whole career, but he loves the game and plays his heart out every second he’s on the court. Against the emotional Boston Celtics, his energy and enthusiasm will be a big factor. His play hasn’t been too bad either. He did a commendable job guarding Duncan one on one, and made his presence felt on offense, even stepping out and hitting a few open jumpers. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to outplay the Boston trio of Brown, Davis and Powe, something he is very capable of doing, it will be a big plus for LA.

Backup point guard Jordan Farmar, regardless of how well he’s playing, has guaranteed minutes every night because of Jackson’s strong faith in his bench. After a disastrous series in Utah where he simply couldn’t match up with powerhouse point guard Deron Williams, Farmar was much more comfortable against the Spurs, where he had the speed to keep up with Tony Parker. Confidence is always the key to his game, and when he is feeling it (which is more often than not in the Staples Center), he can get to the rim and finish, hit 3’s, and pressure the ball defensively. Against the thin point guard rotation of the Celtics, I’m anticipating Farmar having a large impact on the series.

Final Thoughts 

As much as the Celtics rely on the “Big Three” on offense, the key is Rondo. I think he can excel against the older and slower Fisher, who will try to be physical with his much younger counterpart. That said, Pierce does almost all the ball-handling in crunch time, making Rondo less of a factor. They haven’t gone to this lineup very often, but I’d like to see Doc pull Rondo for Posey (keeping Allen and Pierce on the floor) late in games. The Celtics like to pick their spots to run, mainly because Rondo and Allen are most effective on the break, but LA has better athletes and shouldn’t have much of a problem getting back. Against the physical defenses of the East, the Celtics often had trouble early but eventually found their offensive groove. Against the Lakers faster and more active defense, the Celtics are going to have much more trouble getting easy looks.

The Lakers are going to keep doing what they’ve been doing, which is using their length on defense to get steals and deflections, fueling their fast break game. They will look to run on every loose ball they get, along with most missed baskets. They have three players (Fisher, Kobe, Odom) in their starting five who can handle the ball on the break, and everyone on their roster is athletic and committed to running. When they settle down in the halfcourt, the triangle offense, along with phenomenal passing from big men Odom and Gasol, gets the Lakers tons of easy looks. That combined with the Kobe factor makes LA extremely difficult to stop. That said, the Celtics had the best defense in the league this year, has the athletes to play with LA, and had success (even though there was no Gasol) in defending Bryant in their two early season matchups. The Celtics will lose some of their offensive rebounding (which Perkins and Rondo usually provide) in their commitment to getting back on D, and will give up a good number of offensive rebounds because of the defensive scrambling that Kobe causes, and those extra possessions on both ends could very well be the key to the series.

The one thing that really hurts the Lakers is the ridiculous 2-3-2 travel schedule. Even if they steal one of the first two in Boston, which I think they can and will do, it is extremely difficult to win all three home games in a row (Pistons and Heat both did it when winning their recent championships). Not sure it matters, because playing on the road really doesn’t faze the Lakers that much and Kobe won’t let it bother his team. Also, I’m not completely sold on the Boston home atmosphere. I know they have a phenomenal home record, but I’m not sure it’s an intimidating place to play.

I think the Lakers steal one of the first two in Boston, win two of three in LA (too hard to win all three against a team as good as the Celtics), before finishing it up in Game 6.